Texas 2 Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – AAA 500
Another Non-Chase Winner?
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. got the first “non-Chaser” win last week, so will we see that again? The Sprint Cup series finish off the 2014 cookie cutter year with good old Texas Motor Speedway. Although the season finale is at Homestead-Miami Speedway, I don’t consider it a cookie cutter because of the shape. So, what should we expect Sunday in the AAA 500? The last race at Texas was bad for many of the favorites–Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Jimmie Johnson, and Kevin Harvick for example–but I have a feeling Sunday’s event will be much more predictable. Matt Kenseth won the pole for this race, and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. Also, here are the results for the two practice sessions on Saturday: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Be sure to check out our notes for each as well: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Keep in mind that the Penske and Roush teams tested here at Texas in late September.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The AAA Texas 500:Portions of this content are hidden. To view this ifantasyrace advantage content log in or join the site
11. Kasey Kahne – Starts 14th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 16th (change: +5)
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Kasey Kahne is always a high risk option in my mind, simply because he’s so inconsistent. Ryan Newman is Mr. Consistency and Kasey Kahne is the exact opposite. Now, with that being said, the #5 car is on my radar this weekend because the Hendrick cars all have very good speed and Kasey as a decent starting spot for Sunday’s AAA Texas 500. In terms of ten-lap average, Kahne ranked 4th on that chart in Happy Hour while posting the 6th-fastest overall lap. Looking at his history here at Texas Motor Speedway, Kasey has always been a pretty decent pick; in five of the last six events here, Kahne has ended up 11th or better. His career average finish, though, is 17.7 (inconsistent) and Kahne has just six top 10s in 20 career starts–five of which were also top 5s. When it comes to momentum, the #5 team still have yet to finish better than 10th since their surprise win at Atlanta, and I don’t see that changing on Sunday. If you want to go with a little bit of an off-sequence pick to try and hit big this week, go with Kahne, but I’ll tell you now you’re probably going to be disappointed.
12. Kurt Busch – Starts 4th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 19th (change: +7)
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Kurt has a tendency to do well after disappointing me the week before, so I’ll give him a decent ranking this week. The thing is, the #41 Chevrolet has looked pretty solid all weekend long. Kurt went out and qualified 4th on Friday and then packed that up with some good practice sessions, most notably Happy Hour where had the 2nd-best ten-lap average and was 13th on the overall speed chart. He’s driving chassis no. 839 this weekend, which used to be a Danica Patrick car. She used it to finish 17th and 18th in the two Michigan races. That’s the good news. Now, Kurt Busch is always a high risk driver, but this week he is so even more. The #41 Chevrolet has three finishes of 36th or worse in the last six Sprint Cup events, and Busch’s only top 10 over that span was at Talladega. Here at Texas, Kurt finished 8th in this event during the 2012 season but that’s his only finish inside the top 10 here in his last six attempts. I think there’s some upside in picking Kurt Busch this weekend but it’s awfully risky. At best this is a 7th-place car and I don’t want to take that kind of risk unless the pick can win.
13. Tony Stewart – Starts 6th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 13th (change: +2)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Okay, Smoke, you got my attention. Tony Stewart is coming off of a season-best finish at Martinsville (4th) and his first top 10 result since Loudon in mid-July. On Friday he went out and qualified 6th, which was a bit surprising because Stewart generally doesn’t start up front. And usually he has a good car when he does. Tony was then 3rd-fastest in Practice #2 and ended up 9th on the Happy Hour speed chart, which are equally as surprising because Stewart usually doesn’t show his hand in practice. Thus, it’s pretty fair to say that the #14 Chevrolet probably has quite a bit of speed this weekend. Smoke is a two-time winner here at Texas and finished 10th here in the spring after starting on the pole and leading 74 laps. He didn’t race in last year’s fall race at Texas but ended up 5th and 1st in the 2012 and 2011 races. I don’t see Smoke being a top 5 contender on Sunday but a top 10 finish isn’t unattainable for this team as they look to build on a solid finish to this season and head (finally) into 2015.
14. Carl Edwards – Starts 11th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 14th (change: none)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
The #99 Ford doesn’t look like it has much speed on the long run, but then again this team never really does any long runs in practice so it’s nearly impossible to guage that. Edwards qualified 11th for Sunday’s AAA Texas 500 and he’s going to need a good run in the race if he wants to keep his championship hopes alive. I don’t see that happening right now but you never know how it’s going to play out once the green flag waves. On a positive note, the #99 looked pretty good on the speed charts (in terms of one fast lap): Edwards was fastest in Practice #2 and ended up 8th on the overall speed chart in Happy Hour. Historically Texas has been a pretty good track for Cousin Carl, as he’s collected three victories here and has a career average finish of 15.5. Four of the last seven races here have ended with Carl inside the top 10 and he’s only finished worse than 16th once over that span. I don’t think he’ll break that streak here on Sunday, but it might take a bit to get this #99 Ford inside the top 10.
15. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 8th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: NR (change: N/A)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
The #78 Chevrolet has looked sporty all weekend long, which makes Martin Truex, Jr. a great sleeper option. Then again, it is the #78 team so you can’t expect the world. Texas is one of Truex’s best tracks on the circuit and he had a five-race streak of finishes 14th or better coming into 2014, all of which came while he was with Michael Waltrip Racing. Martin started and finished in 18th in this year’s spring race at Texas. The #78 Chevrolet will roll off the grid in 8th on Sunday and I think Truex will be able to stay inside the top 10 at least for a little bit once the green flag waves. Then it comes down to the team and keeping up with the track. Truex had the best ten-lap average in Practice #2 and was 9th on that chart in Happy Hour. In terms of “one fast lap,” the #78 was 4th and 7th, respectively, in those two sessions. Truex has had a rough last two weeks at Talladega and Martinsville but let’s not forget that he finished between 7th and 14th in each of the five Sprint Cup events before ‘Dega. I’d say the #78 is one of the better sleeper options this weekend, if not the best.
The Next Ten:
16. Paul Menard (sleeper pick–could really surprise)
17. Denny Hamlin
18. Clint Bowyer
19. Jamie McMurray
20. Brian Vickers
21. Aric Almirola
22. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
23. Marcos Ambrose
24. Greg Biffle
25. Trevor Bayne
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Pre-Practice Rank: 16th (change: +5)
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Pre-Practice Rank: 19th (change: +7)
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Pre-Practice Rank: 13th (change: +2)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Pre-Practice Rank: 14th (change: none)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Pre-Practice Rank: NR (change: N/A)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
17. Denny Hamlin
18. Clint Bowyer
19. Jamie McMurray
20. Brian Vickers
21. Aric Almirola
22. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
23. Marcos Ambrose
24. Greg Biffle
25. Trevor Bayne
