Phoenix Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1. Kevin Harvick Phoenix Fantasy NASCAR Spin – Kevin Harvick will be a good fantasy NASCAR pick to win the Phoenix Quicken Loans Race For Heroes 500. He’s entering this race as the favorite and his odds to win are listed at 3/1. The reason why he’s liked by the odds makers is because he absolutely dominated this race earlier this year and he’s won at this track in three of the last four races. The other attribute I like about him is that he’s also been extremely strong at the other venues that correlate to success at Phoenix. On Sunday Kevin Harvick needs to go all out and win this race otherwise his season could be over. I’ve always viewed him as a clutch performer who’s capable of “winning the big one”. Some drivers will crack under pressure, but don’t look for Harvick to be among those ranks. At Phoenix Kevin Harvick will start in 3rd. That should make the competition nervous because that’s ten positions closer to the front then in March when he went to victory lane. In practice Kevin Harvick’s car was very fast. In practice #2 he was tenths better then the competition on the speed chart. Also in practice #2 his ten lap average ranked as the best. In Happy Hour he remained fast and once again had the best 10 lap average.
Starting Position – 3rd
Track History – Earlier this year at Phoenix Kevin Harvick dominated the race and unquestionably had the best car. In the race he earned the best PROS Ranking, best driver rating, best average running position and led 224 laps. The strength of his car in the race was that he could get back to the gas quicker than the competition coming off the corners. On lap 74 he passed Joey Logano for the lead and after that it was smooth sailing. Last fall his car also performed great and in the turns he stuck to the bottom of the track  like he was on rails. In that event he finished 1st, earned the best driver rating and led 70 laps. In spring 2013 he thought he had a top 3 car but he had a broken left front rotor which led to his 13th place result. In 2012 at Phoenix he had results of 1st and 2nd. Over the last 5 Phoenix races he has the best driver rating, best average running position (5.0), led the most laps and has a 3.6 average finish. Overall at Phoenix dating back to the old surface he’s been to victory lane four times.
Similar Track Performances – This season on shorter flat tracks minus New Hampshire #1 (top 5 potential but ran out of fuel late) he has a 5.0 average finish. In the last two races on this track type he’s had results of 3rd and 5th.
Momentum – In the Chase minus his Martinsville wreck he has a 6.4 average finish. Last week at Texas Harvick finished 2nd.
Chassis Selection – On Sunday Kevin Harvick will be driving a chassis that he’s used at many different venues this year including Las Vegas, Darlington and Pocono. This chassis most recently seen track time at Dover where he ran well but had tire issues.
NASCAR Odds To Win – 3/1

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2. Brad Keselowski Phoenix Fantasy NASCAR Spin – If you thought Brad Keselowski raced aggressively at Texas just wait until the green flag waves at Phoenix. On Sunday Keselowski will be going for the “Hail Mary” and will pull out all the stops to advance to Homestead to avoid having his season be a bust. The good news about Keselowski for those who want to pick him is that nobodies been better than him on shorter flat tracks this season as you’ll read below. Also recently Keselowski has performed very well at Phoenix. If it wasn’t for Kevin Harvick winning here so often he would be in the conversation for being the best driver at Phoenix over the last five race stretch. If you’re fantasy league rewards bonus points for leading laps Keselowski is a must. He’s led in every race at Phoenix since the track reconfiguration. On Sunday Brad Keselowski will start in 2nd. Look for him to run up front all day. In practice Keselowski showed good speed. In practice #2 his ten lap average ranked as the second best. In Happy Hour it ranked as the 7th best.
Starting Position – 2nd
Track History – In the last five races at Phoenix Keselowski has been a phenomenal performer. In this stretch he has a 5.8 average finish and 6.8 average running position. Also in this stretch he’s finished in the top 11 every race. You can’t say that about any other driver in the series. This spring he had a great performance. He started on the pole, finished 3rd, had a 4th place average running position and earned the 4th best driver rating. His PROS Rankings for the race which reflects his strength came in as the 4th best. Last fall he was also strong. In that event he led 29 laps, had the 7th best driver rating, a 9th place average running position and finished 11th. In spring 2013 he earned the 3rd best driver rating, had the 7th best driver rating and finished 4th. In fall 2012 he had a car that was capable of winning but because of his points situation he drove conservatively after Jimmie Johnson wrecked. In that race he earned the #1 PROS Rankings. In March 2012 the Blue Deuce was good. In that event he finished 5th and had a 7th place average running position.
Similar Track Performances – This season on shorter flat tracks Keselowski has been the driver to beat. On this track type he’s scored the most points, been to victory lane twice, has a 3.2 average finish, 3.6 average running position, led the most laps and has the best driver rating. Also at these venues he’s only finished outside the top five once this season and that was a 7th place result at New Hampshire. Richmond is the most similar track and at that venue in September he went to victory lane, earned a near perfect driver rating and led 383 laps.
Momentum – In the Chase minus Martinsville and Kansas he has a 5.0 average finish. Last week he finished 3rd.
Chassis Selection – On Sunday Keselowski will be using his Atlanta 39th place chassis (accident). This chassis has no other starts.
NASCAR Odds To Win – 5/1

Further Recommended Reading – Post Practice Predictions, Speed Cheat Sheet, Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #2 Notes, Practice #2 Speeds, Qualifying Results, Scouting Report, PROS Rankings, Pit Stall Selections

3. Dale Earnhardt Jr. Phoenix Fantasy NASCAR Spin – Dale Earnhardt Jr. has two key advantages on many of the contenders on Sunday. One of them is that he’s not racing for points, he’s racing for wins. That will allow him to take risks and drive more aggressively than some. Another advantage he has is that he recently tested here with his Hendrick teammates. Earlier this year at Phoenix Kevin Harvick dominated the race but Dale Earnhardt Jr. was “the best of the rest” and he crossed the finish line in 2nd. This season on shorter flat tracks Earnhardt Jr. has scored the 3rd most points. In practice Dale Earnhardt Jr. was fast and he was happy with his car. In Happy Hour Earnhardt Jr.’s ten lap average ranked as the 4th best.
Starting Position – 16th
Track History – In recent races at Phoenix Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been one of the strongest drivers in the series. In the last three races in the desert his 3.7 average finish is tied for the best in the series. Also in the last three races he’s the only driver who’s finished in the top five every race and is one of two drivers who have finished in the top ten every race. Also in this three race stretch he has a 9.0 average running position and the 4th best driver rating. This spring at Phoenix Earnhardt Jr. finished 2nd, had a 3rd place average running position and earned the 3rd best driver rating. Last fall Dale Earnhardt Jr. had an impressive performance. He finished 4th and earned the 6th best driver rating. In that race he even overcame an unexpected pit stop that dropped him a lap down around lap 64. In spring 2013 he started mid-pack in 21st but by the mid-point he raced up to 3rd. On lap #192 he assumed the lead and paced the field for the next 47 laps. Then David Gilliland brought out the caution and he lost the lead and ultimately the race to Carl Edwards on pit road. During the last segment of the race he faded back to his 5th place finish.
Similar Track Performances – Dale Earnhardt Jr. has performed very well on shorter flat tracks this season. On this track type he’s scored the 3rd most points, has an 8.0 average result and has finished in the top 12 every race.
Momentum – In the last two weeks Earnhardt Jr. has finishes of 1st and 6th. Prior to that he had a disastrous four race stretch.
Chassis Selection – On Sunday Dale Earnhardt Jr. will be using the chassis he finished 9th with at New Hampshire in September.
NASCAR Odds To Win – 12/1