Watkins Glen Cheez-It 355 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks
1) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 4th) (Odds To Win – 8/1)
Watkins Glen Typical Trouble Free Finish Range – 6th through 13th
Watkins Glen Fantasy Spin– Kevin Harvick will be very good on Sunday. He runs well at Watkins Glen and his car is good over long runs. That particular trait has been a hall mark of his on this track type since he joined Stewart-Haas Racing. Friday in practice he was very impressive over a long run and his speed caught the attention of Joey Logano. Among the drivers who ran 10 consecutive laps in Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the best. On Sunday Harvick is starting in 4th. That’s the same position he started in last year.
Watkins Glen History – Kevin Harvick has run well at Watkins Glen and is a former winner. In 2006 he out raced Tony Stewart for the victory. His overall Watkins Glen average finish is 12.6. Last year he had one of the best cars and finished 7th. That finish is misleading because he might’ve had the car to beat. In practice leading up to the event he was the class of the field over long runs. Before the race started his team failed to take a bean bag mock weight out of his car and on lap 3 after it rolled under his floor board he pitted to have it removed. That put him in a big hole that took him all afternoon to recover from. In 2013 he had a fast car finishing in 13th and earning the 13th best driver rating. In 2012 he had a 15th place average running position and finished 15th. In 2011 he finished 6th.
Momentum – Kevin Harvick has finished outside the top ten three times this season. In all of those races he had problems while running in the top three. Last week his engine blew up while leading. That snapped his five race top ten streak.
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2) Kyle Busch (Starting – 8th) (Odds To Win – 6/1)
Watkins Glen Typical Trouble Free Finish Range – 1st through 8th
Watkins Glen Fantasy Spin – Kyle Busch will be very tough to beat at Watkins Glen. His track record is impeccable and his momentum is historical. The lack of Ambrose in the field really opens things up for him in particular. Last year he had problems but in the three Watkins Glen races prior to that he arguably had the best car. In practice Kyle Busch was very quick on the stop watch. On Sunday he’s starting in 8th. When he’s started in that position here in the past he’s finished 4th and 7th.
Watkins Glen History – Kyle Busch has been a phenomenal performer at Watkins Glen. Minus his first and most recent start he has a 5.0 average finish. Last year he just wasn’t his typical self. He started mid-pack and during his first pit stop his window brace was broken and he complained his car wouldn’t turn. As he was leaving his pit stall he was penalized for having equipment leave his pit box. Then shortly afterwards likely in frustration he body slammed Martin Truex Jr. is a turn and it caused suspension damage that sent him to the garage. In the eight Watkins Glen races prior to that event he had the best driver rating, an 8.8 average running position and led 188 laps. In 2013 Busch was able to drive to an easy victory. In that race he had the best driver rating by a wide margin, had a 3rd place average running position and led 29 laps. In 2012 Busch should’ve also won easily but late in the race the track was oiled down and that allowed Brad Keselowski to catch up to him which led to him getting punted out of the way. When the checkered flag waved he finished 7th, earned the best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led 43 laps. In 2011 he was the class of the field but lost the race during late restarts. In that race he earned the best drive rating, had a 2nd place average running position, finished 3rd and led 49 laps. In 2008 Busch won his first race at Watkins Glen.
Momentum – If Kyle Busch had a little more fuel he would be the winner in 5 of the last 6 races. It’s hard to get hotter than that.
Recommended Reading – Watkins Glen Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy take), Happy Hour Enhanced Speeds (tracked lap times for the most notable drivers), Qualifying Results, Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #1 Notes, Practice #1 Speeds, Scouting Report, PROS Rankings, Fantasy Values
3) AJ Allmendinger (Starting – 1st) (Odds To Win – 6/1)
Watkins Glen Typical Trouble Free Finish Range – 1st through 10th
Watkins Glen Fantasy Spin – AJ Allmendinger is a modern day road course ringer. His team and equipment aren’t good enough to compete at most venues but his road course racing prowess can carry him very far. Last year it propelled him to his first career victory at this venue. In practice Allmendinger showed speed but he didn’t seem happy with his car. On Sunday AJ Allmendinger is starting on the pole. This race has been won from that starting position 28.1% percent of the time.
Watkins Glen History – AJ Allmendinger has been an awesome performer at Watkins Glen. He has a 7.8 average finish and has had a result in the top thirteen every race. Currently he has a four race top ten streak. Last year he had a great car and emerged victorious over Marcos Ambrose. In the race he earned the best driver rating, led 29 laps and had a 6th place average running position. In 2013 he was strong and overcame running out of gas under green while running in 3rd. In that race he finished 10th and had the 7th best driver rating. His next two most recent Watkins Glen results are 4th and 8th.
Momentum – Fuel mileage benefited AJ Allmendinger last week and he got his first top ten since the third race of the season.
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