Kevin Harvick 2017 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
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Kevin Harvick 2016 Stats : Points Finish 8th, 4 Wins, 17 Top Fives, 27 Top Tens, 9.9 Average Finish, 9.6 Average Running Position, 1,384 Laps Led
Strengths – Kevin Harvick is capable of winning on any given Sunday. There is no significant hole from a performance perspective from the #4 team.
Weaknesses – The biggest question surrounding Harvick is the off-season changes that Stewart-Haas Racing undertook. They switched to Ford, started making their own chassis, and will no longer have access to Hendrick setups. One key weakness for the #4 team is the pit crew.
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Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Medium High > Medium > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Kevin Harvick is always tough to beat at intermediate tracks. On a year to year basis he\’s proven himself to be a super elite performer on this track type. In 3 of the last 4 seasons he\’s ranked in the top 2 in terms of points accumulated. Over the last six seasons his points rank average is 3.0.
Last year at 1.5 mile tracks he was a fantasy ace. He tied Johnson for scoring the most points, finished in the top five 47% percent of the time and in the top ten 76% percent of the time. His 10.0 average finish ranked as the best in the series.
In 2017 I would look for Harvick to run well, but not be quite as strong. I think the Stewart-Haas Racing manufacture change will likely have the biggest impact on this track type. Also it should be noted they\’ll be making their own chassis this year and that turned out to be a disaster for RPM in 2016. Of course I\’m not saying they\’ll fumble like them.
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Flat Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Kevin Harvick is an elite performer at flat tracks. Last year on this track type he scored the most points, won twice, finished in the top five 71% percent of the time and was the only driver who finished in the top ten every race. In his other two season\’s in Stewart-Haas Racing equipment on this track type he\’s scored the 3rd and 4th most points.
His best flat track by far is Phoenix. Phoenix is also arguably his best track overall. Last fall he finished 4th, that\’s a good result but for him it was a horrible afternoon by his standards. In the six Phoenix races prior to that he was dominant and finished in either 1st or 2nd. If you\’re in an allocation league Phoenix should be a track you target Harvick.
At New Hampshire he\’s also been a fantasy ace. In 4 of the last 5 races he\’s finished in the top 4. In the one race he finished outside that range he was dominant but ran out of gas at the end after leading 216 laps. Last year Harvick had results of 1st and 4th.
Indy has been a good track for him. He\’s a past champion who has three straight top tens. Last year he finished 6th. In the two prior races he had results of 3rd and 8th.
Pocono has been a sore spot on the schedule for him. He\’s been good enough to win there but victory has eluded him throughout his career. In 4 of the last 5 races he\’s finished in the top ten. Last year he had results of 4th and 9th.
In 2017 on this track type with a change of manufacture and SHR making everything in house he might take a small step back on this track type.
Short Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Kevin Harvick is an elite talent at short tracks. Last year on this track type he scored the most points and had a 9.2 average finish. Considering he had a few misleading results and still managed to do that speaks volumes. In 2017 with all the off-season changes I think there\’s a good chance he might take a step back on this track type
I would rank Richmond as his best short track. He\’s won there 3 times and has finished in the top five in 4 of the last 5 races. Last year he had a pair of 5th place results.
At Bristol he currently has three straight top tens. Last summer he raced his way to victory lane and led 128 laps. In the two races prior to that he had results of 2nd and 7th.
At Martinsville he has more questionable fantasy value. Last fall he had some problems and finished 20th. In the spring race he was a top five contender but finished 17th after having problems late. In four of the five races prior to 2016 he finished between 6th and 8th.
Plate Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Kevin Harvick is a good restrictor plate driver. When it comes to the art of drafting he ranks as one of the best in the series. He knows how to position himself up front when it matters.
Last year on this track type he had a pretty good year. Minus the summer Daytona race where he crashed he had an 8.6 average finish.
Between the two plate tracks I like him at Daytona more. He\’s won there twice and when he has an incident free race he\’s close to a lock for a good result. Last summer at Daytona he wrecked and finished 39th. In the three races prior to that he finished in the top 4. In the season opening Daytona 500 he finished 4th.
At Talladega he\’s been a relatively safe effective fantasy option in recent seasons. Over the last seven races he\’s finished between 7th and 15th. His average finish over that stretch is a series best 10.4.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – Elite
Kevin Harvick is a strong performer at road courses. At both tracks he\’s capable of finishing well.
At Watkins Glen last season he wrecked and finished 32nd. In the two prior races he had results of 3rd and 7th. In the six races prior to 2016 he had a 9.2 average finish.
Sonoma has been a solid track for him. In 3 of the last 4 races he\’s finished in the top ten. He should be a solid 4 for 4 over this stretch but he wrecked in 2014. Last year he finished 6th. In 2015 he finished 4th.
