Dover 2 Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions
Dover International Speedway, a.k.a. “The Monster Mile,” is the site of this weekend’s Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race, and also the final race of the first round of this year’s playoffs. The top 10 drivers heading into Sunday’s event should be good to advance on, but it’ll get interesting there at the bottom, as McMurray, Stenhouse, Austin Dillon, Newman, Kurt Busch, and Kahne are all vying for the final two spots.
There was a practice session and qualifying held here on Friday at “The Monster Mile,” and then two more practice sessions on Saturday. Surprising to no one, Martin Truex, Jr. and Kyle Busch will lead the field to the green on Sunday with Kyle Larson starting 3rd, and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. The practice speeds from Saturday’s two sessions can be found here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour, and, as always, our in-depth practice notes can be found here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour.
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Final Top 25 Ranking For The 2017 Apache Warrior 400
1. Kyle Larson – Starts 3rd – DraftKings Price: $10,200 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
It’s only a matter of time before Kyle Larson wins at Dover International Speedway, and it wouldn’t be surprising if that was this weekend. Yes, he’s going to have to get around the Toyotas of Martin Truex, Jr. and Kyle Busch, but you never know how a late caution could affect things here at “The Monster Mile.” In fact, Larson knows quite well. Back in June, the #42 Chevrolet led the most laps here at Dover (241 of 406) but it was a late caution that allowed Jimmie Johnson to sneak by and grab his 11th win at this famed race track. Still, Larson led a ton of laps that day, and I’m sure his car this weekend is similar to the one they brought in the spring. Kyle was 6th-fastest during the first practice session here on Saturday and wound up 4th on the Happy Hour speed chart with the 5th-best ten-lap average. He’s made seven career Cup Series starts at this race track and has just one finish worse than 11th, and that’s not going to change this weekend. Larson should be at least top 5 good on Sunday.
2. Kyle Busch – Starts 2nd – DraftKings Price: $11,000 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Kyle Busch might have a career average finish of 14.8 at Dover International Speedway, but he’s much better than that at this race track. In addition to being a two-time winner here, Rowdy has posted 11 top 5 finishes in his 25 career starts here at “The Monster Mile” (44%) and led 1,158 total laps–second only (when looking at active drivers) to Jimmie Johnson’s 3,100 laps led. This weekend, the #18 Toyota will roll off the grid from 2nd and should be inside the top 5 for most of the race. Looking back at June, Kyle Busch started on the pole and was the favorite to win that day, but his wheel came off after an early pit stop. Rowdy was still able to rally to a 16th-place finish. Kyle has finished 2nd in the last two October races here at Dover, and has one of the cars to beat this weekend, too. The #18 Toyota had the best ten-lap average during Saturday morning’s practice session and then ranked P1 on that chart in Happy Hour, too.
3. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 1st – DraftKings Price: $11,000 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
As usual, it’s going to come down to either Martin Truex, Jr. or Kyle Busch who dominates this race on Sunday, although you have to give a slight nod to the former heading into the Apache Warrior 400. In addition to winning the pole on Friday, Truex also has the “advantage”–for lack of a better word–of a less-aggressive Kyle Busch on Sunday, who said he’d be willing to lay back and “just ride” to save tires if Truex gets an early lead. As far as speed goes, the #78 team didn’t do much in Practice #2 on Saturday morning (they only ran 17 laps and were 21st-fastest) and in Happy Hour Truex was just 16th-fastest with the 13th-best ten-lap average. Those speeds aren’t what we normally see out of the #78 Toyota but can you really bet against this team right now? Over the last seven races at this track, Martin hasn’t finished worse than 11th, and he is the defending winner of this particular event. Additionally, the #78 Toyota has led at least 100 laps in three of the last five Dover races, and that should easily be four of the last six after Sunday.
