Nashville Fantasy Spin – At Nashville, AJ Allmendinger will be the pilot of the #16 Kaulig Racing Chevy. In 2022 when he’s been behind the wheel of this ride, he’s finished 19th or worse in 6 of his 7 races. I’ll note he’s shown potential at tracks that have correlation (10th at Gateway, solid at Dover and was in 11th with 88 to go, lost a tire shortly after that in the middle of a pit cycle) but things go wrong for this car far too frequently. I’ll note, if Allmendinger has an incident free race, I wouldn’t be surprised if he comes home with a teens finish.
Nashville Track History – Last year in the Xfinity series at Nashville, Allmendinger finished 5th, was the 8th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 9th best Green Flag Speed.
Nashville Fantasy Spin – At Nashville, I can’t say I’m expecting anything good out of Bubba Wallace. In 2022 over all the non-superspeedway races, his average finish is 24.4, with only LaJoie and Ware ranking lower. That said, he’ll have a little bit of teasing potential. Wallace looked solid last year at Nashville until he had his first problem, and at Dover which is arguably the most similar track he finished 16th this spring. At shorter-flat tracks visited this year, Wallace is 3 for 3 at finishing between 22nd to 26th. At Nashville, I think he’ll ultimately be a 20’s performer and he’ll likely have some problem along the way.
Nashville Track History – Last year at Nashville, Bubba Wallace brought out not 1, but 2 cautions! On lap 132 at the time of his first spin he was running in 14th. Then in the last Stage, Wallace spun on lap 218 while running in 23rd. When the checkered flag waved, Wallace finished 20th, had a 22.8 average running position, was the 23rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and he ranked 24th for both Total Speed Ranking and Green Flag Speeds.
Nashville Fantasy Spin – At Nashville, I think Cole Custer is a 20’s performer. Custer looked solid last year at Nashville, but right now, the current state of the #41 team is that they’re solidly a 20’s team. In 9 of the last 11 races heading into the weekend, Custer’s finished in the 20’s, and one of those outliers was on dirt. That said, Custer’s other outlier was at Dover which is arguably the most similar track and at that venue he finished 15th. Over the last six races, Custer’s Total Speed Ranking is the 25th best.
Nashville Track History – Cole Custer looked solid last year at Nashville but finished an asterisk mark 31st. In the race, Custer was a teens performer but on lap 173 while he was running in 14th, he had a tire go down. The caution technically came out for debris, so fantasy racers who don’t dig deep might miss this one. Despite not getting into the wall, that problem sent Custer to the garage which doomed his afternoon. In terms of speed analytics, Custer had the 16th best Total Speed Ranking and in the two segments prior to his problem he ranked 13th and 14th in terms of speed. Custer’s green flag speed was the 16th best.