Las Vegas #2 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks
Denny Hamlin
Las Vegas Fantasy Spin – Denny Hamlin is the defending fall winner at Las Vegas and on Sunday, there’s no question the #11 will be tough to beat. Hamlin’s been stellar here and in 2022 at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, a solid argument could be made that he’s been the best. In 2022 on this sub-track type minus Las Vegas where he looked great but broke his transaxle, Hamlin has a 4.3 average finish. I view Kansas as the “Sister Track” and Hamlin finished 2nd there earlier in the Playoffs. In terms of Total Speed Rankings over all five races held at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Hamlin ranks 4th. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to compete for a top five and be a factor to win.
Las Vegas Track History – Denny Hamlin has thrived at Las Vegas and in recent races, there’s no question he ranks among the best. Hamlin’s the defending fall winner and in 3 of the last 4 races he’s finished in the top 4. This spring, Hamlin by his own words had the best car but he finished an asterisk mark 32nd after having drive train problems in the final Stage. In the race, Hamlin finished 4th in Stage #1, 9th in Stage #2, led 31 laps and had the best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, Hamlin radioed his team that he felt like his power steering was broken around lap 72 (6th), had a slow pit stop around lap 135 while running in 2nd and was running around 6th shortly before his demise in the final Stage. Over the three Las Vegas races prior to that, Hamlin led the series in terms of average finish (2.7), average running position (3.5), driver rating and average laps led (101.7). Last fall, Hamlin had a great car. In the race he finished 3rd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 2.4 average running position and led 137 laps. Additionally, Hamlin had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and was the 5th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In spring 2021, Hamlin finished 4th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, led 47 laps, had the 3rd best driver rating and then finished 3rd overall. Additionally, Hamlin was the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2020, nobody was better than Hamlin, but he finished a misleading 3rd after getting burned by a late caution during the pit cycle. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, led a race high 121 laps, ran the most fastest laps (51) and had the best driver rating by a wide margin. In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin ranked #1 across the board and had the best Total Speed Ranking, Green Flag Average Speed and was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run.
Christopher Bell
Las Vegas Fantasy Spin – Christopher Bell should be high on your radar at Las Vegas. Bell was great this spring, and in 2022 on this sub-track type, Bell’s been one of the best. For the season at high-speed 1.5’s minus Texas where he had problems, Bell has a 5.8 average finish. Kansas is a sister track, and a few weeks ago at that venue he finished 3rd and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In terms of Total Speed Rankings at high-speed 1.5’s across the combined events, Bell ranks 9th. On Sunday, look for Bell to finish in the top ten and compete for a top five.
Las Vegas Track History – Christopher Bell has been sporty over the last three Las Vegas races having finished in the top ten in 2 of the last 3. This spring, Bell won the pole, led 32 laps, ranked 7th for Speed Late In A Run, had the 9th best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 10th, despite his race not being incident free. On lap 142 while running in 3rd, Bell had a flat tire that shredded which dropped him all the way back into the low 30’s. He rebounded though, as you know. Last fall, Bell finished 24th, but you really can’t read into his result. During the lap 25 competition caution while he was running around the mid-teens, Bell damaged his nose on pit road. Later during the Stage #1 caution, the #20 team spent more time repairing his car, but that actually dropped him off the lead lap because he didn’t beat the pace car when he returned to the track. Last spring, Bell had a great car and ran in the top ten throughout the afternoon. In the race, Bell finished 6th in Stage #1, 7th in Stage #2 and then 7th when the checkered flag waved. Additionally, Bell had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking and was the 8th Fastest Driver Late In A Run.
Tyler Reddick
Las Vegas Fantasy Spin – Texas winner, Tyler Reddick will be a driver to be reckoned with at Las Vegas. Reddick’s been competitive here the last two races, but the key attribute I like about him is how strong he’s been in the two Playoff races held at high-speed 1.5’s. Reddick of course won in the “Lone Star State”, and at Kansas he had a flat tire while leading. Over those combined events, Reddick’s driver rating ranks as the best. For The season at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks over the combined events, Reddick’s Total Speed Ranking is the 6th best, with him ranking 3rd, 1st and 4th over the last three races. The high-line comes into play at Las Vegas and as long as Reddick can avoid the wall while running up there, I have no doubt he’ll be a factor to win.
Las Vegas Track History – Tyler Reddick has back-to-back top tens at Las Vegas and over the last two, his 6.5 average finish ranks as the 5th best. This spring, Reddick started in the back (unapproved adjustments), spun into the grass but that wasn’t a problem and he battled back to finish 7th. In terms of speed stats, Reddick ranked 8th for Speed Late In A Run and 13th for Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note, over the final quarter of the race the #8 was the 7th fastest car on the track. Last fall, Reddick had a stellar showing and ran well throughout the race. In the race he finished 7th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, had a 6.3 average running position and then finished 6th when the checkered flag waved. Additionally, Reddick led 5 laps and had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking. Early in the final Stage, Reddick ran quite a few laps in 2nd. In spring 2021, Reddick just didn’t run well. In the race he finished 22nd, had a 19.9 average running position had the 22nd best Total Speed Ranking.
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Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runner Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions > The Low Tier