Watkins Glen Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings

Alex Bowman
Watkins Glen Fantasy Outlook – Alex Bowman has been consistent at Watkins Glen and in 3 of the last 5 races, he’s finished 14th. I think there’s a good chance he once again finishes around that mark. This year at road courses, Bowman snuck in a win at Chicago, has the 2nd best average finish (6.7) and ranks 5th overall in terms of Total speed Rankings. One race I’ll highlight was his 4th at COTA, but that’s also been his best overall road course. Going back to 2023 at “Traditional Road Courses” in terms of Total Speed Rankings, Bowman ranks 14th.
Watkins Glen Track History –Watkins Glen hasn’t been a great road course for Alex Bowman. Bowman’s never cracked the top ten and his best finish is a 14th. That said, Bowman’s finished 14th in 3 of the last 5 races. In the Next Gen over the last two, Bowman has an 18.5 average finish and ranks 26th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last year, Bowman finished 23rd which I would argue is slightly misleading. On lap 58 under caution when pit road was closed, Bowman came to pit road just after seeing Chase Elliott run out of fuel. On lap 50 prior to the green flag pit cycle kicking into high gear, Bowman was running in 18th. For the afternoon, Bowman’s average running position was 20.6. In 2022, Bowman finished 14th and had a 17.7 average running position. In 2021, Bowman finished 20th. In that race, Bowman had a 17.9 average running position and the 20th best Total Speed Ranking. In his two starts prior to that, Bowman had back-to-back 14th’s.

Daniel Suarez
Watkins Glen Fantasy Outlook – At Watkins Glen, put Daniel Suarez on your radar. Suarez has historically been a hero or zero here, but you have to respect his 50% top five finish rate. Suarez tested here during the summer with the brand-new tire, so that should help give him an edge on much of the field. In the Next Gen at “Traditional Road Courses”, Suarez has a win (Sonoma 2022) and ranks 12th in terms of speed. Heading into the weekend, I would view him as a top ten contender but not get more bullish.
Watkins Glen Track History – Daniel Suarez has had some success at Watkins Glen and in 50% of his starts he’s finished in the top five. In the other 50%, he’s finished 17th or worse. Last year, Suarez didn’t run well and didn’t have an incident free race. In the race Suarez started 14th, was up to 10th on lap 5 but then he spun coming off the bus stop and got into the wall which dropped him back to the mid 20’s. Suarez never recovered and went on to finish 22nd. Additionally, Suarez had a 25.0 average running position and ranked 26th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Suarez had a great performance and finished 5th. Additionally, Suarez had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking, the 5th best Green Flag Speed and ranked 7th for Speed Late In A Run.

Ross Chastain
Watkins Glen Fantasy Outlook – Watkins Glen hasn’t been a good road course for Ross Chastain, but I wouldn’t overlook him. Chastain is more than a capable road course racer and I wouldn’t be surprised if he comes up big. This year between the two “Traditional Road Courses”, Chastain has results of 5th (Sonoma) and 7th (COTA) and ranks 3rd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Heading into the weekend, I would view Chastain as a top ten contender, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes in the teens.
Watkins Glen Track History – Watkins Glen has not been a good track for Ross Chastain. Chastain didn’t run well last year and over the last three races his average finish is a not-so-great 17th. In 2023, Chastain was a complete non-factor. In the race, Chastain started 22nd, finished 18th, had a 17.7 average running position and ranked 15th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Chastain didn’t run well and also spun out at one point (didn’t hurt him too much since he was back in the 20’s on lap 64 when it happened). When the checkered flag waved, Chastain finished 21st and had a 19.5 average running position. I will note, Chastain had speed and ranked 13th for Total Speed Rankings and 14th for Speed Late In A Run, so he probably did have more potential than I’m giving him credit for. In 2021 in the #42, Chastain started 12th, finished 12th, had a 10.4 average running position, had the 11th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 7th for speed late in a run.

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