Watkins Glen Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Kyle Larson
Watkins Glen Fantasy Outlook – Kyle Larson is a 5-time road course winner, and half his wins on this track type have come at Watkins Glen where he’s 2 for 3 at reaching victory lane in the #5. In his one outlier in the #5 where he didn’t win, he got a pit penalty while running in 3rd, so he’s certainly not lacked when it comes to “Performance.” At Sonoma the most recent “Traditional Road Course” visited, Larson raced his way to victory lane, driving up thru the field at the end. On Sunday, look for Larson to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Watkins Glen Track History – Kyle Larson has been a super-elite performer at Watkins Glen. Larson’s won 2 of the last 3 races and since 2018 minus last year where he got a costly speeding penalty, Larson’s average finish is 4th! Last year, Larson was a top 3 performer, but he finished an asterisk mark 26th. In the race, Larson finished 6th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2 but then in the last Stage on lap 55 while running in 3rd during green flag pit stops, he was caught speeding on pit road. Then on the last lap to add insult to injury while battling for 19th, Larson spun out Austin Dillon and himself in the process. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 7th with his speed over the segments being 6th, 1st, 14th and then 19th. In 2022, Larson had a great car and raced his way to victory lane after body slamming Chase Elliott during the final restart for the lead. In addition to winning, Larson led 5 laps, had a 7.7 average running position and had the fastest car over the final quarter of the race. In 2021, Larson was the class of the field and easily raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Larson finished 2nd in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, led 27 laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking and was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In the two races prior to that, Larson had results of 8th and 6th.

Chase Elliott
Watkins Glen Fantasy Outlook – 7-time road course winner, Chase Elliott is the premier performer at Watkins Glen and on Sunday, look for him to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. Elliott hasn’t forgotten how to win at road courses, and he likely would’ve won here in 2022 if there wasn’t a late caution while leading which led to Kyle Larson body slamming him on a restart. This year between the two “Traditional Road Courses” visited, Elliott has the 4th best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and in the races, Elliott finished 4th at Sonoma and looked to be a top five contender at COTA until he got a penalty (16th).
Watkins Glen Track History – Chase Elliott is a super-elite performer at Watkins Glen who’s always tough to beat. Elliott’s a two-time winner and since 2018 minus last year, Elliott has a 2.0 average finish. Last year, Elliott was under a ton of pressure with his Playoff hopes on the line and he finished an asterisk mark 32nd. In the race, Elliott started 15th, finished 7th in Stage #2 but then on lap 55 while running in 7th, Elliott ran out of gas which ended up being the only caution of the race. If Elliott’s race would’ve been incident free, I think he may have very well been a top five contender. In 2022, Elliott had the race all but won until a late caution came out while leading which led to him getting body slammed on the restart from Larson which led to his 4th. In the race, Elliott had a 4.4 average running position, led 29 laps and earned the best driver rating. In 2021, Elliott had a great car and finished runner-up, despite starting in the rear of the field and making an unexpected pit stop for flat spotting his tires on lap 31. If Elliott didn’t have those problems, I think he probably would’ve won. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Elliott ranked 6th but take note his speed over the segments were 14th, 19th, 3rd and then 1st. In 2019, Elliott started on the pole, finished 1st, had a 1.3 average running position, led 80 laps and was just .3 shy of earning a perfect driver rating. In 2018, Elliott finished 1st and led 52 laps.

William Byron
Watkins Glen Fantasy Outlook – William Byron put on a display of domination last year at Watkins Glen and I think he has a great chance to repeat. Byron’s without a doubt one of the best default picks at road courses right now and since Watkins Glen 2023 minus Sonoma 2024, Byron has 2-wins and a 3.0 average finish. I view COTA to be the track that has the most correlation visited this year, and Byron took the competition to the woodshed there this spring, finishing 1st, having the best Speed Ranking and having a near perfect driver rating.
Watkins Glen Track History – William Byron has been strong at Watkins Glen. Byron smoked the field and easily raced his way to victory lane last year and in 3 of his 5 races, he’s finished in the top 8. Last year, Byron put on a display of domination en route to victory lane. In the race, Byron started 2nd, finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 66 laps, had a 1.3 average running position and earned a near perfect driver rating. In terms of speed stats, Byron had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best Green Flag Speed and ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run. In 2022, Byron finished a clunker 22nd. In the race, Byron started in the back, finished 22nd and had a 21.8 average running position. It just wasn’t a great race. In 2021, Byron finished 6th, had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and earned the 6th best Driver Rating. In 2019, Byron looked great, but he also caused his own demise. In the race he started 2nd, finished 5th in Stage #1, but then during the Stage #1 caution he showed his displeasure to Kyle Busch and ran into the back of the #18. That absolutely destroyed the front of the #24 which ruined what looked like a promising afternoon and led to his 21st place finish. In 2018 in his track debut, Byron finished 8th.

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