Watkins Glen Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Carson Hocevar
Watkins Glen Fantasy Outlook – Road Course racing doesn’t strike me as a primary strength for Carson Hocevar and I would view him as about a 20th place driver at best. This year at road courses, Hocevar’s 3 for 3 at finishing between 17th to 24th and his average finish is 21.3. In terms of “Traditional Road Course” Speed Rankings this year, Hocevar ranks 20th.
Watkins Glen Track History – Carson Hocevar has never competed at Watkins Glen on the Cup level. Back in 2021 when the Truck series most recently competed there, Hocevar finished 10th.

Zane Smith
Watkins Glen Fantasy Outlook – Zane Smith has been running better over the last third of the season and he might have upside for those looking to roll the dice. People will probably view Smith as a +25 driver, but this year at road courses, he’s one of just seven drivers who are 3 for 3 at finishing in the top 20 and his average finish is 17.7. On Sunday, I would view Smith as about a 20th place driver who’ll have marginal upside.
Watkins Glen Track History – Zane Smith has never competed at Watkins Glen on the Cup level. In the Truck series back in 2021, Smith finished 6th.

Erik Jones
Watkins Glen Fantasy Outlook – Erik Jones has had success at Watkins Glen, but I would brace for the worst if you pick him. The #43 team is one of the worst in Cup and since 2023, Jones ranks 32nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings at “Traditional Road Courses” and his average finish is a near basement 27.2. This year between the two “Traditional Road Courses” visited, Jones has results of 19th (Sonoma) and 33rd (COTA). If you pick Jones, I would view him as a high-teens driver at best but prepare for the worst.
Watkins Glen Track History – Watkins Glen has been a good track for Erik Jones and in 4 of his 6 starts he’s finished in the top ten. That said, Jones was junk last year. In the race, Jones finished 29th, had a 28.1 average running position and ranked 28th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. It was just an outright ugly showing. Fantasy racing is all about “What have you done lately”, and that was quite a stinker. In 2022, Jones had a solid showing and finished 10th. Additionally, Jones had the 13th best Total Speed Ranking and a 15.2 average running position. In 2021, Jones simply didn’t run well in the #43 and finished 27th. In the three races prior to that when he was in the much more competitive #20, Jones had results of 4th (2019), 5th (2018) and 10th (2017).

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