COTA Echopark Texas Grand Prix Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings

Austin Cindric
COTA Fantasy Outlook – At COTA, look for Austin Cindric to be solid. Cindric was a dud last spring (18th) but overall in the Next Gen, Cindric has a 10.7 average finish and his Next Gen Speed Ranking ranks 11th. Last year at road courses, Cindric closed the season in solid fashion and over the last three races his average finish was 9.6. Over the combined races in 2024 on this track type, Cindric ranked 16th in terms of speed. Heading into the weekend, I would view Cindric as a dark horse top ten contender.
COTA Track History – At COTA in the Next Gen, Austin Cindric has the 7th best average finish (10.7) and the 11th best Next Gen Speed Ranking. Last year, Cindric had a mid-pack performance. In the race, Cindric finished 18th, had a 20.3 average running position and ranked 20th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note, Cindric damaged his nose early, made an extended pit stop during the Stage #1 caution and then just never bounced back. In 2023, Cindric had a strong showing to rally to finish 6th. It definitely wasn’t an easy 6th since late mayhem had him back in 21st with 7 to go until the scheduled distance. In the race, Cindric had an 11.7 average running position, the 8th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 5th for Speed Late In A Run. In 2022, Cindric started 10th, finished 10th in Stage #1, 9th in Stage #2, had a 10.8 average running position, led 11 laps and then finished 8th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed stats, Cindric ranked 2nd for speed late in a run and 4th for Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note, Cindric’s afternoon also wasn’t incident free. On lap 34 while running near the front he spun. In 2021, Cindric was racy but finished 25th. In the race, Cindric finished 5th in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, led 4 laps and had a 10.4 average running position. Towards the end, Cindric just wasn’t at his best, and his pit strategy game was also off which led to his disappointing afternoon in the results column.

Joey Logano
COTA Fantasy Outlook – Joey Logano is a capable road course racer but at COTA he’s either solid at best or comes home with a lack luster result. In terms of “Performance”, he’s actually been pretty good over all four. In 2024 at road courses, Logano had a 15.6 average finish, three results in the top 15 and the 15th best Track Type Total Speed Ranking. At COTA on his resume, Logano has two results in the top 11 but in the other two he’s finished 28th or worse. Heading into the weekend, I would view Logano as about a mid-teens driver who’ll have marginal upside.
COTA Track History – At COTA as you just read above, Logano has a pair of top 11’s but in the other two he’s finished 28th or worse. In terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings over the last three, Logano ranks 23rd. Last year, Logano had a solid showing. In the race, Logano started way back in 35th, had an 18.4 average running position but then finished 11th overall. In terms of speed stats, Logano ranked 8th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 15th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2023, Logano was a top ten contender but finished an asterisk mark 28th. In the race, Logano was penalized for short cutting the esses on lap 7 while running in 16th, was running in 10th at lap 57 (my favorite lap count reference point before late wildness ensued) and was actually running in 10th at the start of overtime #3, but then something really bad not shown in the telecast happened which led to his poor result. In 2022, Logano started 6th, finished 4th in Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2 but then finished 31st when the checkered flag waved. In the final Stage, Logano’s race went south and right at the restart while leading due to pit strategy he locked up his brakes in turn #1 and that dropped him back to 12th. Then on lap 45 while running in 12th, Logano spun. Then to cap off his afternoon, Logano was involved in an accident on lap 65 which broke his toe link which doomed him to a 31st. In the first two segments prior to things going south, Logano had speed rankings of 8th and 13th. In 2021, Logano won Stage #1, finished 3rd overall, led a race high 14 laps, had a race best 6.6 average running position and ranked as the 3rd fastest driver late in a run.

Michael McDowell 
COTA Fantasy Outlook – Michael McDowell will be an interesting fantasy prospect at COTA in his new Spire #71. We knew what he could do in his old #34 on this track type so this will be one of those “Watch and learn” races. That said, I think McDowell has a great chance to contend for a top ten if things go well. McDowell’s a strong road course racer and he’s been great at COTA. Last year at road courses minus COTA (steering issues), McDowell had a 7.3 average finish.
COTA Track History – Michael McDowell has run well at COTA and minus last year where he had power steering issues, he’s 3 for 3 at finishing between 7th to 13th with a 10.7 average finish. Last year, McDowell looked sporty but finished an asterisk mark 38th. In the race, McDowell started 27th, used pit strategy and finished 3rd in Stage #1, finally pitted around lap 23 with out of sync pit strategy but then on lap 30, the #34 car was limping around the track and now lacked power steering which doomed him to his poor finish. Over the first segment of the race which was incident free for him, McDowell ranked as having the 11th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2023, McDowell ran well and finished 12th. In the race, McDowell had the 8th best Driver Rating and the 10th best Total Speed Ranking, having ranked in either 7th or 8th over the last three segments. On lap 57 which is a great reference point before late mayhem ensued, McDowell was running in 7th. In 2022,  McDowell started in the back, had a 21.8 average running position and then finished 13th when the checkered flag waved. With 10 laps to go, McDowell was running in 10th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, McDowell ranked 24th but take note over the final quarter of the race he had the 11th fastest car on the track. In 2021, McDowell finished 7th.

Carson Hocevar
COTA Fantasy Outlook – Carson Hocevar might have some dark horse upside in him at COTA. Hocevar didn’t run well by any metric last year (22nd), but I like how he closed out the 2024 season on this track type, with results of 3rd (Watkins Glen) and 12th (Charlotte Roval). Overall in 2024 at road courses, Hocevar had a 15.6 average finish and ranked 11th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings. Heading into the weekend, I would view Hocevar as a mid-teens driver who might have marginal upside.
COTA Track History – Last year at COTA in his only Cup start, Hocevar had a mid-pack afternoon to forget. In the race, Hocevar finished 22nd, had a 19.9 average running position and then ranked 22nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings.

Daniel Suarez
COTA Fantasy Outlook – Daniel Suarez is a former road course race winner (Sonoma 2022) who’ll be flying under the radar. COTA has been an outright disaster for him and statistically it ranks as his very worst track via his 28.8 average finish. That said, Suarez isn’t a bad road course racer and he’s shown potential here previously, so there’s no reason why he shouldn’t have a respectable showing. Last year at road courses, Suarez finished in the top fourteen in 3 of the 5 races (20.2 average finish) and ranked 19th in terms of track type Total Speed Rankings. At COTA, I would view Suarez as a risky-teens option.
COTA Track History – COTA hasn’t been kind to Daniel Suarez. He’s 4 for 4 at finishing 24th or worse with his average finish being 28.8. In terms of COTA Next Gen Speed Rankings, Suarez ranks 12th, so he’s shown speed. Last year, Suarez didn’t have an incident free race and finished a misleading 32nd. In the race, Suarez hovered around the low double-digits for much of Stage #1, finished 2nd overall in Stage #1 which dropped him way back and then late in Stage #2, Suarez was caught speeding on pit road and you could stick a fork in him from that point on. In terms of speed analytics, Suarez ranked 15th for Speed Late In A Run and then 17th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2023, Suarez was a standout performer but was swept up in late chaos that led to a misleading 27th. In the race, Suarez had the 3rd best average running position (7.1), the 5th best Driver Rating, ranked as the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and ranked 6th for Total Speed Rankings. On lap 57 which is my favorite late race running order look back to moment before late chaos, Suarez was in 2nd. At the start of overtime #2, Suarez was running in 5th but then he had a shredded tire which brought out a caution for overtime #3. In 2022, Suarez likely had one of the best cars but finished an asterisk mark 24th. In the race, Suarez started 2nd, led the opening 15 laps, won Stage #1 but then Stage pit strategy shuffled him back to mid-pack. On lap 18 during the Stage #2 restart while running in 20th in turn #1, Suarez had a cut tire and then limped around the track. Then later around lap 45, Suarez had power steering problems. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Suarez ranked 10th. In 2021, Suarez had transmission problems nearly after the start which doomed him to a 33rd.

Bubba Wallace
COTA Fantasy Outlook – COTA has been a pretty brutal track to Bubba Wallace, but he might have a respectable showing, and by that, I mean finish around the mid-teens. Wallace finished 15th last year and in 2024 overall on this track type, Wallace had a 14.8 average finish and ranked 20th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings. Prior to last year at COTA, Wallace stunk it up to the tune of having finishes of 37th, 38th and 39th so his 32.3 COTA overall finish should scare some away.
COTA Track History – COTA has been an absolute buzz saw for Bubba Wallace with him having a 32.3 overall average finish via three results of 37th or worse. That said, Wallace hasn’t looked that bad in the last two. Last year, Wallace finished 15th. Additionally, Wallace had the 19th best Speed Ranking and ranked 20th for Speed Late In A Run. In 2023, Wallace showed potential but on lap 10 while running in 11th, he got into the back of Kyle Larson hard and that marked the end of his race, leading to his 37th. Although his race was short, Wallace did rank 9th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Wallace finished 38th due to “suspension issues.” On lap 44 at the time of his demise when he lost a tire and then stopped on the track, Wallace was running in 20th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Wallace ranked 19th which I view as reflective of his performance. In 2021, Wallace had a short race and finished 39th after crashing on lap 19 in the rain. On lap 18, one lap before his demise he was running in 21st.

Todd Gilliland
COTA Fantasy Outlook – Todd Gilliland might have a solid result in him at COTA, and if you’re looking for a mid-tier driver, he’s not a bad pick but ultimately, I think viewing him as slightly better than mid-pack is the right play. Gilliland didn’t run well last year en route to a 26th but in the two prior to that he finished in the top 16. Overall at COTA, Gilliland has a 17.3 average finish, and his Next Gen Speed Ranking is an ugly 28th. Last year at road courses minus COTA where he simply didn’t run well, Gilliland had a 13th place average finish and his Speed Ranking over all the combined races ranked 16th.
COTA Track History – Last year at COTA, Todd Gilliland had a performance you would want to forget. He simply wasn’t competitive and when the race reached its conclusion he finished 26th, had a 20.7 average running position and ranked 21st in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2023, Gilliland finished 10th but I wouldn’t co-sign he was that good. In the race, Gilliland had the 24th best Total Speed Ranking, ranked 24th for Speed Late In A Run, had a 20.2 average running position and was running in 19th on lap 57, which is a great reference point before late mass mayhem ensued. In 2022, Gilliland had one of his best afternoons of the year and finished 16th. Gilliland even got an equipment violation penalty en route to his respectable result during the Stage #1 caution. That said, Gilliland had a 25.7 average running position, the 28th best Total Speed Ranking and was running in 25th with six laps to go before the final caution came out.

Justin Haley
COTA Fantasy Outlook – Justin Haley has been respectable at COTA, given his tier and over the last three races he’s “crossed” the finish line between 15th to 19th (17th place average finish). Of course, in the official results column last year you’ll see an ugly 39th due to a post-race DNF due to weight requirements not being met post-race. Last year at road courses, Haley had results all across the board (none of them were too good) and for the season he had a 24.4 average finish (crediting him with a 17th for COTA) and had the 25th best Track Type Total Speed Rankings. At the Roval in his one road course start in the #7, Haley finished 26th.
COTA Track History – At COTA in the Next Gen, Justin Haley has a 17th place average finish (crediting him with a 17th last year) and ranks 21st in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. Last year, Haley finished 39th on paper but technically he crossed the finish line in 17th but was DQ’ed post-race due to not meeting minimum weight. It was actually a solid showing in his Rick Ware ride. In the race, Haley had a 14.3 average running position and ranked 15th in terms of  Total Speed Rankings. I really don’t think the lack of weight which was likely minuscule aided him too much, or any at all. In 2023, Haley finished 19th and had a 25.5 average running position. On lap 57 which is a great reference point before late chaos took over, Haley was running in 22nd. In 2022, Haley finished 15th, had a 16.1 average running position and had the 17th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2021, Haley only completed 12 laps before his afternoon was over due to “steering” problems which led to his last place finish (40th).

Zane Smith
COTA Fantasy Outlook – At COTA, look for Zane Smith to be slightly better than mid-pack. In 2024 at road courses, Smith actually had a pretty solid rookie season on this track type and over the combined races he had a 15.2 average finish and had a result in the top 19 every race. Can he duplicate that level of success in his new ride? I don’t know but I think it’s safe to view him as a mid-pack driver with marginal upside.
COTA Track History – Last year at COTA in Cup, Zane Smith was mid-pack. In the race, Smith started 34th, had a 20.8 average running position and then finished 19th overall. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Smith ranked 25th. In the Truck series, Smith was elite here, having won in both 2023 and 2022.

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