COTA Echopark Texas Grand Prix Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Noah Gragson
COTA Fantasy Outlook – At COTA, I think Noah Gragson is mid-pack at best. I don’t view Gragson as a good road course racer, but I’ll note he did have two top 15 finishes on this track type last year. Overall at road courses in 2024, Gragson had a 23.6 average finish and ranked 25th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings. His new Spire ride may prove to be a plus on this track type but it’s certainly no game changer.
COTA Track History – Noah Gragson has two bad races on his resume at COTA with his average finish being an ugly 27th. Last year, Noah Gragson struggled, and he even spun out with 4-laps to go while running in the 30’s and went on to finish 34th. Additionally, Gragson ranked 31st in terms of Total Speed Rankings and had a 32nd place average running position. It was an outright ugly showing. In 2023, Gragson started 10th, had a 16.9 average running position and then finished 20th overall. On lap 57 which is a great reference point before late mayhem, Gragson was running in 18th. In terms of speed stats, Gragson had the 22nd best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 22nd for Speed Late In A Run.

Austin Dillon
COTA Fantasy Outlook – Austin Dillon has had dud results of 25th or worse over the last two COTA races and on Sunday, I don’t really see a lot of reason for optimism. In 2024 at road courses, Dillon statistically ranked among the worst and over the combined races he had a 28th place average finish and ranked 28th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings.
COTA Track History – Austin Dillon has actually been sporty to an extent in 3 of his 4 COTA races, so he might just have a little upside for those brave enough to roll the dice. In terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings, Dillon clocks in at 22nd. Last year, Dillon didn’t have one of his better races and was a 20’s performer. In the race, Dillon finished 25th, had a 22.2 average running position and ranked 28th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2023, Dillon ran well and was a legit top ten contender but finished an asterisk mark 33rd after getting caught up in a lot of late chaos. In the race, Dillon was legit running in 6th on lap 57 before late chaos ensued but then on a restart shortly after that, Dillon was spun on lap 60 and then on lap 62 he was penalized for short cutting the esses. Then on lap 64, the #3 was shown to be heavily damaged and he brought out a caution for debris. In the race, Dillon had the 11th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 12th for Green Flag Speed. In 2022, Dillon closed out the race strong and finished 10th. In the race, Dillon had a 20.6 average running position, the 22nd best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 19th for speed late in a run. In 2021, Dillon finished 12th.

Ryan Preece
COTA Fantasy Outlook – Ryan Preece might surprise us a little bit at COTA but its best to keep expectations low. Preece was pretty bad at road courses last year with a 22.2 average finish (30th best Speed Ranking) but in 2023 on this track type minus COTA and Indy RC, he went 4 for 4 at finishing between 11th to 17th and had a 14th place average finish. His new change of scenery might be a plus, or it might be a minus, but it’s hard to guess heading into the weekend.
COTA Track History – At COTA minus 2023 where he crashed, Ryan Preece has a 19th place average finish. Last year, Preece had a pretty pedestrian performance. In the race, Preece finished 23rd, had a 25.4 average running position, had the 26th best Driver Rating and then ranked 27th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2023, Preece had an eventful afternoon which led to him finishing 32nd. In the race, Preece had a 20.8 average running position and the 18th best Total Speed Ranking. On lap 48, Preece was in 31st but then the next lap he was penalized for short cutting the esses and was then caught speeding while serving his penalty. To close out the race, Preece looked sporty and logged laps in the top ten. At the start of overtime #1, Preece was in 8th but then he got a lot of damage in a multi-car wreck in overtime. In 2021 in his one other start in the rain, Preece was solid. In the race, Preece finished 7th in Stage #2, had an 11.9 average running position and then finished 15th overall.

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