Phoenix Shriners Children’s 500 Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings

Bubba Wallace
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – At Phoenix, look for Bubba Wallace to be a low double-digit driver who’ll have a great chance to come home with a top ten. Wallace had a strong showing last fall en route to a 7th and he’s also clearly stepped up his game here and since 2023, Wallace has an 11.75 average finish and a 12.75 average Speed Ranking. Last year at shorter-flat tracks, Wallace had the 10th best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and a 13.0 average finish minus New Hampshire.
Phoenix Track History – At Phoenix, Bubba Wallace has been pretty solid in recent races and over the last four, Wallace has a 12.75 average finish, a 13.3 average running position and the 12th best Driver Rating. Last fall, Wallace had his best performance to date in the desert and finished 7th, despite starting 29th! Additionally, Wallace had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking and earned the 8th best Driver Rating. Last spring, Wallace was OK. In the race, Wallace finished 16th, had a 17.5 average running position and then ranked 18th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In fall 2023, Wallace finished 4th in Stage #1, 8th in Stage #2, had a 7.6 average running position, earned the 8th best Driver Rating and then finished 10th overall. In spring 2023, Wallace finished 14th.

Alex Bowman
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – Alex Bowman has long been an enigma to me at Phoenix. Bowman looked like Superman back in fall 2016 when he drove the #88 but since then, he’s only cracked the top ten once and it was just a 9th in spring 2023. In 7 of the last 10 Phoenix races, Bowman has finished between 13th to 20th, so I’m just naturally going to expect more of the same from him. Last year at shorter-flat tracks, Bowman had the 15th best Track Type Total Speed Ranking.
Phoenix Track History – At Phoenix since 2020 minus fall 2022, Alex Bowman has a 15.0 average finish. In terms of Next Gen Total Speed Rankings, Bowman ranks 17th. Last fall to close out the season, Bowman finished 14th, had a 14.9 average running position and ranked 18th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Bowman was less than impressive. In the race, Bowman finished 20th, ranked 20th in terms of Total Speed Rankings and had a 17.8 average running position. In fall 2023, Bowman was a high-teens performer. In the race, Bowman finished 17th, had a 19.1 average running position and had the 21st best Speed Ranking. In spring 2023, Bowman snuck in a 9th. I will note, he was in 11th with 17 to go before late mayhem ensued. Additionally, Bowman had a 12.4 average running position and ranked 12th for Total Speed Rankings.

Ty Gibbs
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – Ty Gibbs will be a dark horse at Phoenix. Gibbs was a contender to win last spring (3rd) but other than that race, Gibbs has had zero success here and is 3 for 3 at finishing 21st or worse. The #54 team needs to right the ship, and I think he’ll be more than capable of competing at a high-level at Phoenix if he can avoid trouble. Last year at shorter-flat tracks, Gibbs had the 11th best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and minus Phoenix in the fall his average finish was 15.5. Heading into the weekend, I would just conservatively view Gibbs as a top ten contender.
Phoenix Track History – Phoenix hasn’t been a great track for Ty Gibbs and as you read above, in 3 of his 4 races he’s finished 21st or worse. In terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings over the combined races, Gibbs ranks 13th. Last fall, no fantasy lessons were learned, and Gibbs wrecked on lap #2 after getting high on the track and then slamming into the wall which led to his 40th. Last spring, Gibbs was a standout performer, leading 57 laps, earning the 3rd best Driver Rating, having a 6.3 average running position and then finishing 3rd overall. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Gibbs ranked 6th. In 2023, Gibbs wasn’t good in either race. That year he finished 21st in the fall (17.9 average running position) and then in the spring he finished 28th, but I’ll note that’s slightly misleading since he crashed near the end while running in 21st, which ushered in mega overtime mayhem. (19.3 average running position, 21st best Total Speed Ranking).

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