Phoenix Shriners Children’s 500 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Austin Dillon
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – Austin Dillon might be a quality dark horse option at Phoenix. This race will be run like Richmond last fall with the Option Tire/Prime Tire, and we all remember who crossed the finish line first in that race. In the desert, Dillon stunk it up in both 2024 races (29.5 average finish) but overall in 6 of the last 9 he’s finished between 12th to 18th, so there’s some hope.
Phoenix Track History – Austin Dillon hasn’t been that bad at Phoenix, but he was super bad in 2024, finishing 27th or worse both races and having a 29.5 average result. Last fall en route to a clunker 27th, Dillon had a 27.2 average running position and ranked 30th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Dillon had a tough race and finished 32nd. On lap 6 while running way back in the 30’s, Dillon was caught up in a multi-car wreck that dropped him a few laps down, dooming him to a 32nd. In fall 2023, Dillon closed the race strong and finished 12th. That said, Dillon didn’t run well for much of it, having a 21.8 average running position and ranked 24th for Green Flag Speed and Total Speed Rankings. To close out the race over the final long run, he closed strong. In spring 2023, Dillon finished 16th but it’s hard to say he was that good. For the afternoon his average running position was 25.3 and with 17 to go before late mayhem, he was in 20th.

Ryan Preece
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – Ryan Preece might have some sleeper upside at Phoenix. Preece is often at his best at shorter-flat tracks and in his new RFK #60, he might just deliver but there’s a great chance he’ll underdeliver. Preece didn’t run that well in either 2024 Phoenix race but in 2023, he came home with solid results of 12th and 14th. Last year at shorter-flat tracks, Preece had a 23.9 average finish and ranked 21st in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings.
Phoenix Track History – At Phoenix in the Next Gen, Preece ranks 20th in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings and his average finish minus last fall is 16.3. Last fall, Preece looked to be a high-teens performer but on lap 218 when he was running around 19th, the #41’s toe was broken and Preece was limping around the track which led to his 37th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Preece ranked 24th. Last spring, Preece finished 23rd and had an 18.2 average running position. In fall 2023, Preece finished 14th, had a 17.3 average running position and then ranked 18th for Total Speed Rankings, Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run. In spring 2023, Preece finished 12th, which marks his all-time best result in the desert. I’ll note, “Performance Wise”, Preece was really a high-teens performer and late wildness boosted him in the results column. With 17 to go before mayhem ensued, Preece was in 17th. Additionally, Preece had an 18.9 average running position and ranked 20th for Total Speed Rankings.

Michael McDowell
Phoenix Fantasy Outlook – Michael McDowell will likely be flying a little under the radar at Phoenix. McDowell stunk it up to an incredible extent last fall, but he’s actually been pretty good here and over the three races prior to that, McDowell had a 10th place average finish and had a result in the top 13 every race. Last year at shorter-flat tracks, McDowell ranked 23rd in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings.
Phoenix Track History – As you just read, Michael McDowell has been pretty solid at Phoenix in recent races. Last fall in his Front Row Motorsports farewell, McDowell had a super ugly race which included an unscheduled pit stop and a speeding penalty. When the checkered flag waved, McDowell finished 31st, had a 33rd place average running position and ranked 34th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, McDowell had a strong showing. In the race, McDowell finished 8th, earned the 12th best Driver Rating, had a 12.5 average running position and then ranked 16th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In fall 2023, McDowell closed the race strong over the closing run and finished 9th. Additionally, McDowell had a 17.2 average running position and the 17th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2023, McDowell finished 13th and ranked 15th for Total Speed Rankings.

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