Las Vegas Pennzoil 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Erik Jones
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – At Las Vegas, I would view Erik Jones as a high-teens driver which is somewhat optimistic. 2024 was a tough year for the #43 team, but Jones has had some of his better afternoons at high-speed 1.5’s and for the season minus Kansas #2 his average finish was 19.3, and his overall Speed Ranking ranked 25th.
Las Vegas Track History – In the Next Gen, Erik Jones ranks 20th in terms of Total Speed Rankings and his Next Gen Average Finish is also 20th. Last fall, Jones simply had an uncompetitive mid 20’s performance. In the race, Jones finished 25th, had a 26.7 average running position and ranked 27th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll also note, Jones didn’t have an incident free race. On lap 61 Jones was in 23rd and was the last car on the lead lap but then during a caution after that, he lost a wheel. Last spring, Jones had a pretty good race by his 2024 standards and for the afternoon, he finished 14th, earned the 20th best Driver Rating and had a 21.7 average running position. In fall 2023, Jones finished 28th but that’s an asterisk mark result. On lap 65 while running in 15th, Jones had a flat tire which dropped him off the lead lap and back into the 30’s. After that, his competitive afternoon was over. In spring 2023, Jones finished 19th.

Austin Dillon
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – Las Vegas will be a watch and learn race about the competitive state of the RCR #3. Dillon was an outright dud last fall but historically he’s been pretty solid here, as you’ll read below. Last year at high-speed 1.5’s, Dillon ranked 30th in terms of Total Speed Rankings but for the season minus Las Vegas #2 his average finish was 17.6.
Las Vegas Track History – Austin Dillon has been respectable at Las Vegas and in 6 of the last 8 races, he’s finished between 10th to 18th with his average finish since 2021 minus last fall being 15.3. Last fall, Dillon had a short uncompetitive afternoon. In the race, Dillon started 13th, was off the lead lap in 26th on lap 61 but then on lap 63, he crashed after contact with Hemric which led to his 37th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Dillon ranked 27th. Last spring, Dillon finished 16th, had the 17th best Speed Ranking and earned the 18th best Driver Rating. In 2023, Dillon had not so great results of 18th and 27th. Over the four races prior to that, Dillon had finishes of 10th, 11th, 13th and 12th.

Michael McDowell
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – In his new Spire Chevy #71, Michael McDowell will be a driver to watch, but I wouldn’t get overly optimistic. Spire cars showed some level of competitiveness last fall, highlighted by Zane Smith (16th) and Justin Haley (17th) both finishing in the top 17. On his own accord in his previous ride in the Next Gen, McDowell had a best Las Vegas finish of 17th (also his all-time best result), a Next Gen Average Finish of 22.2 and a Next Gen Speed Ranking of 27th. Heading into the weekend, I’m just going to view McDowell conservatively as a teen’s driver and not get overly bullish.
Las Vegas Track History – Michael McDowell has a pretty lack luster resume at Las Vegas. McDowell’s finished between 17th to 27th over the last nine races with his average finish over that stretch being 21.3. Last fall, McDowell simply had a mid-pack afternoon. In the race, McDowell finished 20th, had a 17.8 average running position and ranked 26th in terms of Driver Rating. I’ll note, McDowell did get a pit penalty during the Stage #1 caution, he was in the low 20’s at that point and had all afternoon to bounce back. Last spring, McDowell finished 25th, had a 21.3 average running position and ranked 32nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In fall 2023, McDowell tied his all-time best Vegas result and finished 17th. In spring 2023, McDowell finished 25th.

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