Texas Wurth 400 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Kyle Larson
Texas Fantasy Outlook – Kyle Larson’s a super-elite performer at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks and in the Texas Wurth 400, the road to victory lane likely goes thru him. At Texas, Larson’s been a standout performer and in terms of “Performance”, I would argue he’s had the best car in 3 of the last 4 races. In the Next Gen over the combined Texas races, Larson’s tied for having the best Next Gen Speed Ranking but due to problems in 2 of the 3 races, his average finish is 20.3. Whenever the series visits high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Larson is typically the driver to beat and since 2024 at these venues minus Kansas #2 2024, Larson has a 3.8 average Speed Ranking. To start the season on this track type, Larson was the class of the field at Las Vegas but finished 9th. That said, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking and led the most laps (61). On Sunday, look for Larson to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Texas Track History – Kyle Larson, the 2021 Texas winner is always tough to beat in the “Lone Star State” but problems have kept him out of victory lane in many of the recent races. In terms of “Performance”, I would argue he should’ve won 3 of the last 4 races. Last year, Larson looked like he had the field covered but problems kept him out of victory lane. In the race, Larson started on the pole, won Stage #1, led 77 laps (most) but then in Stage #2 after just winning the race off pit road, Larson literally lost a wheel under caution and that put him behind for the rest of the afternoon, leading to his 21st. I’ll note, that also wasn’t Larson’s last problem. With 10 to go he was up to 17th but then he spun which brought out the caution. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 6th with his speed over the segments being 1st, 3rd, 28th and then 6th. In 2023, Larson had a great car, but late mayhem essentially robbed him of what looked like certain victory. In the race, Larson started 11th, won Stage #2, led 99 laps, had a 6.6 average running position (impressive with his early demise), had the best Total Speed Ranking but late cautions led to his ultimate demise and on lap 247 while battling side by side for the lead during a restart with Bubba Wallace, he crashed (finished 31st). In 2022, Larson started 9th, won Stage #1, led 19 laps, had a 10.4 average running position and finished 9th. In 2021, Larson put on a display of domination. In the race, Larson finished 3rd in Stage #1 (others beat him on pit strategy), won Stage #2, had a 2.1 average running position, led 256 laps and earned a perfect driver rating. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 1st and fielded the fastest car over all four segments of the race.

Further Recommended Reading: Texas 2024 Scouting Report, Texas Next Gen Speed Rankings, Texas Next Gen Average Finishes, Texas 2024 Speed Cheat Sheet

William Byron
Texas Fantasy Outlook – William Byron, the 2023 Texas winner will be tough to beat in the Wurth 400. Byron’s performed at a super-elite level at Texas and in the Next Gen, Byron has the best average finish (3.7), and he’s tied for having the best Next Gen Speed Ranking. At high-speed 1.5’s, Byron’s one of the premier performers and since 2024 on this track type, Byron has the best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and the best Average Finish (7.0). Over the last four races at high-speed 1.5’s going back to last year, Byron’s average Speed Ranking is 2nd, and his average finish is 3.25. At Las Vegas earlier this year, Byron finished a solid 4th and ranked 2nd for Driver Rating and Total Speed Rankings.
Texas Track History – William Byron has been elite in the Lone Star State and in the Next Gen, Byron has 1-win, a series best 3.7 average finish and his Next Gen Speed Ranking is tied for being the best. Last year, the #24 was one of the best and just as importantly, he avoided trouble. In the race, Byron finished 3rd, earned the 3rd best Driver Rating and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. In 2023, Byron didn’t have the best car but that didn’t stop him from reaching victory lane. With 50 laps to go before late wildness kicked into gear, Byron was running in 7th. Late mayhem boosted Byron towards the front and then in the closing laps he came up clutch and passed Bubba Wallace for the win. In terms of speed stats, Byron ranked as the fastest driver late in a run and his Total Speed Ranking was tied for being the 7th best. In 2022, Byron led 42 laps, had a race best 6.7 average running position and then finished 7th. In terms of speed stats, Byron had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and then ranked 3rd for Green Flag Speed & Speed Late In A Run. In 2021, Byron finished runner-up.

Check out our Loop Data Box Score Archive! 

Tyler Reddick
Texas Fantasy Outlook – Tyler Reddick, the 2022 Texas winner will be tough to beat. Reddick’s been a standout performer at Texas in the Next Gen, and there’s no reason to think the #45 team won’t show up with elite speed. In the Next Gen at Texas, Reddick’s tied for having the best Next Gen Speed Ranking, has the best Driver Rating and his average finish minus 2023 where he was caught up in an accident is 2.5. When it comes to high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Reddick is always a driver to be reckoned with and since 2024 on this sub-track type, Reddick ranks 2nd in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings. On Sunday, look for Reddick to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Texas Track History – Tyler Reddick has been a standout performer at Texas, and he could easily be the winner of 2 of the 3 Next Gen races. Last year, Reddick finished 4th but was arguably the best (after Larson had his problem). In the race, Reddick had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best Driver Rating, the best Average Running Position (6.5) and led 37 laps. I’ll note, Reddick did tag the wall in the last Stage, so that hindered him to close out. In 2023, Reddick finished an asterisk mark 25th. On lap 200, Reddick was in 16th but then three laps later during a green flag pit cycle he pitted early and was then burned by a caution which dropped him off the lead lap back into the 30’s. I’ll note, Reddick did rebound and was up to 9th on lap 254, but then on lap 255 he was collected in a “Big One” which doomed him to his poor result. In the race, Reddick had the 11th best Total Speed Ranking and a 14.3 average running position. In 2022 en route to victory lane, Reddick led the most laps (70), earned the best driver rating and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking.

Make sure you read the full spectrum of our Texas Wurth 400 Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions & The Low Tier