Sonoma Toyota / Save Mart 350 Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings

Ryan Preece
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – Ryan Preece has been running better at road courses and he currently has back-to-back teen finishes at Sonoma. At Sonoma in the Next Gen, Preece has a 15.5 average finish and ranks 21st in terms of Total Speed Rankings. This year at road courses, Preece ranks 8th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings and he’s fresh off a 7th at Chicago. Another attribute you have to like about Preece is his momentum and since Kansas minus Nashville his average finish is 10th. Heading into the weekend, I wouldn’t be surprised if Preece competes for another top ten.
Sonoma Track History – Ryan Preece has been pretty solid at Sonoma and in the Next Gen as you just read, he’s 2 for 2 at finishing in the teens with a 15.5 average finish. Last year in the #41, Preece was a high teens performer. In the race, Preece finished 18th, had a 19th place average running position and ranked 21st in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2023, Preece had a good race for himself. In the race, Preece started 22nd, finished 13th and had a 17.1 average running position. In terms of speed stats, Preece ranked 15th for Speed Late In A Run and ranked 18th for Total Speed Rankings. In his two starts prior to that, Preece had finishes of 21st (2021) and 29th (2019).

Denny Hamlin
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – Denny Hamlin is a strong performer at Sonoma whose now deep on the depth chart after three buzzkill results in the 30’s but don’t overlook him. Hamlin’s had some strong performances at Sonoma and in the five races prior to his current ongoing drought, Hamlin was 5 for 5 at finishing in the top ten with a 5.8 average finish, so there’s no question he’s a capable performer. If anything, Hamlin’s due to have an incident free race. Heading into the weekend, I’m going to be optimistic and view him as an extremely risky top ten performer.
Sonoma Track History – At Sonoma, Denny Hamlin has performed at a high-level, but he currently has three straight clunker results in the 30’s. Last summer, Hamlin started 25th, completed two laps and then his engine blew up, so no fantasy lessons learned from his 38th place afternoon. In 2023, Hamlin was top ten good but finished an asterisk mark 36th. In the race, Hamlin started on the pole, led 33 laps, had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking but late in the race on lap 91 while running in 10th, Hamlin got into the wall and crashed which doomed him to his poor result. In 2022, Hamlin finished 31st but I’ll note he wasn’t quite that bad. Hamlin was realistically about 20th place good, but he did some gambling pit strategy late hoping to catch a lucky break caution that never materialized. That said, take note JGR also wasn’t competitive on this track type at the time, so don’t read into that race at all. Over the five Sonoma races prior to that, Hamlin went 5 for 5 at finishing in the top ten and had a 5.8 average finish.

Daniel Suarez
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – Daniel Suarez, the 2022 Sonoma winner should be solid. I’m not setting expectations too high but I do think he’s around a mid-teens driver. That’s where he finished last year (14th) and over the combined Next Gen Sonoma races, Suarez has a 13th place average finish and ranks 9th in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. This year at road courses, Suarez ranks 17th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings
Sonoma Track History – At Sonoma, Daniel Suarez basically has results all across the board but overall his Next Gen average finish is 13th. Last year en route to his 14th, Suarez had a 13.2 average running position, the 14th best Driver Rating and ranked 14th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2023, Suarez’s afternoon tanked at the start, and he finished 22nd. In the race, Suarez started 9th but on the opening lap he missed a shift and that rapidly dropped him back to 29th. I don’t think that ultimately damaged his engine, but I do know he wasn’t ever remotely a factor after that en route to his 22nd. In the race, Suarez had a 22.4 average running position, the 24th best Driver Rating and ranked 24th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Suarez finished 4th in Stage #2, led 47 laps, had a 3.6 average running position, earned the best driver rating and then of course finished 1st when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed stats, Suarez was tied for having the best Total Speed Ranking and in terms of both Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run, he ranked 2nd. In his four Sonoma starts prior to that, Suarez had finishes of 12th, 17th, 15th and 16th.

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