Sonoma Toyota / Save Mart 350 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Austin Dillon
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – At Sonoma, I think Austin Dillon likely has about 20th place upside and I wouldn’t get more optimistic than that. At Sonoma over his ten starts, Dillon has a 19.3 average finish and in 7 of the 10, he’s finished within a deviation of 4 from 20th. In the Next Gen, Dillon has a 22nd place average finish and ranks 16th in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings.
Sonoma Track History – Last year at Sonoma, Austin Dillon had a short afternoon and finished 36th. In the race, Dillon started 16th, finished about 17th in Stage #1, was somehow up to 9th on lap 34 (didn’t pit during a caution shortly before that) and then on lap 35, Josh Berry missed a turn and then Dillon was collected in the turn #11 carnage. I’ll note his short race skews his Total Speed Ranking (9th) but over the first quarter of the race he ranked 19th in terms of speed. In 2023, Dillon finished 19th, had a 20.6 average running position and ranked 22nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In the two races prior to that, Dillon was legit solid and came home with finishes of 11th (2022) and 13th (2021).

Cole Custer
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – It’s hard to say what we’ll get out of Cole Custer at Sonoma but I’m going to heavily lean it likely won’t be good and mid-pack expectations are in the cards. He could run well like Mexico but he could just as easily come home with a buzzkill result. What we do know about Custer already at Sonoma is that in his two previous races he’s finished 20th and 21st, so that’s nothing to get excited about. This year at road courses, Custer ranks 21st in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings.
Sonoma Track History – At Sonoma on the Cup level, Cole Custer has been consistent and he’s 2 for 2 at finishing around 20th with his average finish being 20.5. Back in 2022 when he most recently raced, Custer finished 21st, had a 15th place average running position and his Total Speed Ranking ranked 14th. That said, Custer got worse as the race progressed with his speed over the segments being 8th, 13th, 17th and then 24th. In 2021 in his one other Cup start, Custer finished 20th.

Riley Herbst
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – I think Riley Herbst is mid-pack at best, and it might take a little attrition for him to finish that high. This year at road courses, Herbst has a pair of 17th place finishes, a 21.0 average finish and ranks 22nd in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings.
Sonoma Track History – In the Xfinity series at Sonoma, Riley Herbst has a 14th place average finish over his two starts. Although that does sound respectable, Cup competition is much more competitive so I don’t think that translates well. Last year in the lower series, Herbst finished 13th and then in 2023 he finished 15th.

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