Dover Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Zane Smith
Dover Fantasy Outlook – Zane Smith has been pretty solid over the last few months so don’t overlook him at Dover. Smith had a dud debut last year (24th) but I think he can best that. Heading into the weekend, I would view Smith as about a high-teens driver who might have a little bit more upside.
Dover Track History – Zane Smith had a pretty unremarkable debut last year at Dover and when the checkered flag waved he finished 24th, had a 30.5 average running position and ranked 33rd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In the Truck series way back in 2020, Smith led 50 laps and raced his way to victory lane.

Noah Gragson
Dover Fantasy Outlook – Noah Gragson and the #4 team are struggling to get a decent result and at Dover, I don’t think anything good will happen. Gragson had a great race last summer and finished 6th but with his current level of performance, I expect him to be mid-pack at best. That said, his finish was legit last year and if you’re looking to roll the dice, he might be worth a shot.
Dover Track History – Noah Gragson has two Cup starts at Dover and his results are at polar opposite ends of the spectrum and as a result his average finish is 20th. Last year, Gragson finished 6th, had a 12.8 average running position and ranked 14th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Over the last quarter of the race, he was at his best and ranked 7th for Speed. In 2023, Gragson had a short afternoon completing just 43 laps and crashing which led to his 34th. On lap 28 while running in 21st, Gragson spun and hit the outside wall and the inside wall.

Austin Dillon
Dover Fantasy Outlook – At Dover, don’t expect anything good to happen if you pick Austin Dillon. Dillon’s career average finish is 20.1 but in the Next Gen era, he’s been even worse than that and over the last three races, he’s 3 for 3 at finishing in the 20’s, has a 25.7 average finish, ranks 31st in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. Currently, Dillon has back-to-back 27th’s. Heading into the weekend, I think it’s wise to be braced for a 20’s finish.
Dover Track History – Austin Dillon’s had success at Dover but in the Next Gen, he’s been quite bad with his average finish being 25.7. Last year, Dillon finished 27th, had a 29.9 average running position and ranked 32nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note, Dillon did make an unexpected pit stop on lap 110 which dropped him two laps down but he was back in the high 20’s when that happened anyways. In 2023, Dillon started in the rear of the field and when the checkered flag waved, he finished 5-laps down in 27th. Additionally, Dillon had a 26th place average running position and had the 32nd best Total Speed Ranking. In 2022, Dillon never ran well and finished 23rd. In the race, Dillon had a 25.4 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking ranked 31st. I’ll note, something was definitely wrong with the #3 and after just finishing around 26th in Stage #2, the #3 team went under his hood for the Stage caution. In the three races prior to 2022, Dillon had solid finishes of 14th (2021), 9th (2020 #2) and 15th (2020 #1).

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