Dover Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Denny Hamlin
Dover Fantasy Outlook – Defending Dover winner, Denny Hamlin will be tough to beat at the “Monster Mile.” Hamlin’s a 2-time winner and in many of the other recent races he’s been a factor. Since 2018 minus misleading results in 2022, 2020 #2 and 2019 #1, Hamlin has a 4.0 average finish. In the Next Gen, Hamlin has the best Next Gen Speed Ranking and his average finish is 3rd over the last two. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Dover Track History – Denny Hamlin has performed at an elite-level at Dover. Last year when the trophy was on the line, Hamlin hit the after burners and raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Hamlin started 6th, finished 6th in Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, had the best average running position (4.1), led the most laps (136), earned the best Driver Rating and of course finished 1st. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run. In 2023, Hamlin ranked among the best. In the race, Hamlin finished 2nd in Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, had a 4.9 average running position, earned the 5th best Driver Rating and then finished 5th overall. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked 3rd for Total Speed Rankings and then 5th for Speed Late In A Run. In 2022, Hamlin might’ve just had the best car but his race was anything but incident free. In the race, Hamlin started 2nd, led 67 laps, won Stage #1 but then following the Stage #1 pit stops, he lost a wheel which dropped him all the way back to the mid 20’s. Hamlin battled back and was up to 4th on lap 240, but then Cody Ware spun in front of him and clipped the #11. That ended his competitive afternoon but to make things worse, he later got a speeding penalty. When the checkered flag waved, Hamlin finished 21st.

Chase Elliott
Dover Fantasy Outlook – Two-time Dover winner, Chase Elliott should be on your short list of favorites and on Sunday, look for Elliott to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. Elliott’s thrived at the “Monster Mile” and in the Next Gen, Elliott won the first race, he’s tied for the best average finish (5.7), he’s tied for the 2nd best Next Gen Speed Ranking and has the 4th best Driver Rating. One attribute you have to like about Elliott is that he’s hot and in 4 of the last 5 races heading into the weekend, he’s finished in the top five.
Dover Track History – Chase Elliott has been a force to be reckoned with at Dover and for his career minus an accident (2020 #2) and an engine failure (2019 #2), Elliott has a 4.7 average finish. Also for his career minus those two races, Elliott has a 85.7% top five finish rate and he’s had a result in the top 12 every race. In the Next Gen as you read above, he’s tied for 1st in terms of average finish (5.7) and is tied for 2nd in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. Last year, Elliott started way back in 29th but that wasn’t a problem. The #9 was fast and Elliott had no problems driving up thru the field, finishing 9th in Stage # 1, 5th in Stage #2 and then finishing 5th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed stats, Elliott ranked 4th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2023, Elliott finished 11th but I would be careful reading into that afternoon since it was early in his return following injury. In the race, Elliott finished 11th, had an 11.6 average running position and had the 12th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2022 when the trophy was on the line, Elliott hit the afterburners and raced his way to victory lane. I’ll note, on lap 320 before there was a caution during the pit cycle, Elliott was running in 6th. In the race, Elliott had a 4.1 average running position, led 71 laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking and then ranked 3rd for speed late in a run.

Kyle Larson
Dover Fantasy Outlook – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Dover and there’s no question the #5 will be fast and be a factor. At “The Monster Mile”, Larson’s a former winner (2019), he’s finished in the top five 50% of the time, in the top ten 75% of the time and his average finish is 8.2. In the Next Gen, Larson’s only had one incident free race but in terms of “Performance”, he’s been top 2 good over the last two and over all three he’s been a top 5 performer. On Sunday, look for Larson to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Dover Track History – Kyle Larson is an elite performer at Dover and it ranks among his best tracks. Larson raced his way to victory lane here in fall 2019 and since 2019 minus 2023 (crash) his average finish is 2.8! Last year, Larson dominated much of the race but came up short in closing time. In the race, Larson started 21st, finished 5th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 5.0 average running position, earned the 3rd best Driver Rating, led 39 laps and then finished 2nd. In terms of Speed Stats, Larson was tied for #1 for Total Speed Rankings and ranked as the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In 2023, Larson might’ve just been the best but he finished an asterisk mark 32nd. In the race, Larson started 18th but had no trouble slicing and dicing his way up thru the running order. On lap 81 when he climbed up to 5th, Ross Chastain decided to wreck the #15 and Larson was caught up in the carnage and got heavy damage which doomed his afternoon. In 2022, Larson didn’t have an incident free race but rallied to finish 6th. In the race, Larson started 3rd, led 19 laps, finished 6th in Stage #1 but then in Stage #2 on lap 156 while running in 7th, Larson spun (got slightly into the wall) and had a shredded tire. That damaged the #5 and dropped him off the lead lap, but he rallied back. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 8th. In 2021, Larson won Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 1.8 average running position, led 263 laps and finished 2nd. In terms of speed analytics, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best green flag speed and was the fastest driver late in a run. In fall 2019 in his next most recent race, Larson led 154 laps and raced his way to victory lane. In spring 2019, Larson finished 3rd.

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