Richmond Cook Out 400 Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings

Ross Chastain
Richmond Fantasy Outlook – At Richmond in the Cook Out 400, look for Ross Chastain to have a solid showing and be a low double-digit to mid-teens driver who’ll flirt with a top ten. Chastain’s had some great races here recently and in 5 of the last 7, he’s been a top five contender, despite what you’ll see in the results column. Since 2024 at shorter-flat tracks, Chastain ranks 11th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings and at the two visited this year, Chastain has a pair of 11th place finishes.
Richmond Track History – At Richmond, Ross Chastain hasn’t been bad and in quite a few of the recent races, he’s been better than what you’ll see in the results column. In the Next Gen era, Chastain has the 11th best average finish (14th) and ranks 15th in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. Last summer, Chastain started 22nd, had a 9.6 average running position, earned the 8th best Driver Rating and then finished 5th overall. In terms of speed stats, Chastain ranked 7th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 12th best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Chastain was OK. In the race, Chastain finished 15th, had the 14th best Total Speed Ranking and had a 12.9 average running position. In summer 2023 in his slump, Chastain finished 24th. Over the four races prior to that “Performance Wise”, Chastain was a top 7 performer. In spring 2023, Chastain led 16 laps, had a 5.2 average running position and then finished 3rd overall. In terms of speed stats, Chastain had the 3rd best Green Flag Speed and ranked 5th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Chastain looked like a top five contender in both races until his afternoons went south, leading to misleading finishes.

Alex Bowman
Richmond Fantasy Outlook – Alex Bowman is a former Richmond winner who you don’t want to overlook. The results column hasn’t been good here recently with him finishing 17th or worse in 4 of the last 5 races but I think he’s due for a bounce back. He’s more than capable of performing at a high-level and for the season between the two shorter-flat tracks visited, Bowman has a pair of 7th place finishes. Another variable you have to like about Bowman is the recent form of the #48. Heading into the weekend, I would view him as a top ten contender but also be prepared for him to underperform.
Richmond Track History – Alex Bowman has been a solid performer at Richmond even though the results column hasn’t been good recently. Bowman raced his way to victory lane in spring 2021 and since 2020, Bowman has a 13.4 average finish. In the Next Gen era over the last six, Bowman ranks 18th for speed and has the 17th best average finish (16.5). Last summer, Bowman was bad, finishing 28th and ranking 28th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. That said, Bowman wasn’t quite that bad. On lap 283 while running around 20th in the last Stage, Bowman was caught speeding on pit road during green flag pit stops. Last spring, Bowman finished 17th but I would argue that’s an asterisk mark result. In the race, Bowman finished 3rd in Stage #1 but then in Stage #2 on lap 155 after running long during a green flag pit cycle, Bowman had a slow pit stop that dropped him from the top five back to the high-teens. Then right at the conclusion of Stage #2, Bowman got lapped by Truex (got the free pass during the Stage #2 caution). For whatever reason, Bowman just couldn’t bounce back. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Bowman ranked 13th with his speed over the segments being 4th, 18th, 23rd and then 12th. In summer 2023, Bowman finished 18th and had a 14.7 average running position. In spring 2023, Bowman finished 7th in Stage #1, finished 7th in Stage #2, had a 5.5 average running position, had the 8th best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 8th when the checkered flag waved. In 2022, Bowman finished a clunker 20th in the summer and then finished 8th in the spring.

Kyle Busch
Richmond Fantasy Outlook – Kyle Busch is a legendary performer at Richmond but with his current competitive state in the #8, I would just view him as a top ten contender and not get overly bullish. In the Next Gen at Richmond, Busch has an 11.2 average finish and his Next Gen Speed Ranking ranks 10th. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Busch finished 8th at Phoenix but then just a few weeks ago he finished a clunker 20th at Iowa.
Richmond Track History – Kyle Busch is a 6-time Richmond winner who’s finished in the top five 50% of the time and in the top ten 73.7% of the time. In the Next Gen, Busch has finished between 9th to 14th in 4 of the 6 races. Last summer under the lights, Busch finished 12th and ranked 9th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Busch was not good. In the race, Busch finished 20th, had a 19.9 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking ranked 25th. I’ll note, Busch even brought out a caution when he got into the wall and NASCAR was then quick to call it, but that was ultimately not a big deal. In summer 2023, the #8 was strong and Busch raced his way to a 3rd place finish. Additionally, Busch had a 7.3 average running position, the 7th best Total Speed Ranking and the 7th best Driver Rating. In spring 2023, Busch was OK and finished 14th. Over the three Richmond races prior to that, Busch had results of 9th, 9th and 9th.

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