Talladega Jack Link’s 500 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Shane van Gisbergen
Talladega Fantasy Outlook – The draft/attrition are great equalizers, so Shane van Gisbergen might just sneak in a good result. SVG finished 11th last fall but take note overall at big superspeedways his average finish is down the depth chart at 24.9, so it’s best to keep expectations low. Since 2025 at big superspeedways, SVG has finished 29th or worse in 3 of the 5 races.
Talladega Track History – SVG has four starts at Talladega under his belt, and his average finish is 20.8. Last fall, SVG finished 11th. Additionally, SVG ranked 13th in terms of Driver Rating and had an 18.3 average running position. I’ll quickly note at the start of overtime, he was actually back in 19th. SVG also did bring out a caution on lap 111 when he spun coming to pit road, but that was ultimately harmless. Last spring, SVG finished 29th and had a 27.3 average running position. I’ll note, he did get a speeding penalty during Stage #2 green flag pit stops when he was running just outside the top ten, but he had time to bounce back. In fall 2024, SVG escaped with a 15th. Additionally, SVG had an 18.8 average running position and earned the 18th best Driver Rating. In spring 2024, SVG finished 28th.

Austin Dillon
Talladega Fantasy Outlook – Austin Dillon is often at his best at big superspeedways, so he’ll be worth a roll of the dice but he’s risky. At Dega in the Next Gen, Dillon’s finished in the top 13 in 50% of the races but in the other 50% he’s finished 27th or worse. In 2 of the last 3 he’s finished in the top ten, so that has him leaning more towards the good spectrum recently. Since 2025 at big superspeedways, Dillon has 1-top ten but over the four other races he’s finished 24th or worse.
Talladega Track History – Austin Dillon has historically been solid at Talladega and since 2019 minus last fall, spring 2024, both 2023 races and spring 2020, Dillon has an 9.3 average finish. That said, there’s a lot of minuses in that last sentence so he’s not exactly a safe pick. Last fall, Dillon was wounded in the lap 52 “Big One” but he continued logging laps, leading to his 27th. Last spring, Dillon finished 10th and had a 20.3 average running position. With 3 laps to go, Dillon was literally in 23rd, so it was quite a dash to the finish for him. In fall 2024, Dillon dodged the carnage and finished 8th. There was nothing special about that performance but avoiding trouble is half the battle. In spring 2024, Dillon finished 30th, had a 17.9 average running position but was flatlined running in the 30’s to close out the race. In 2023, Dillon had brutal results of 33rd and 38th.

John H Nemechek 
Talladega Fantasy Outlook – The draft/attrition are great equalizers, so even John H Nemechek might sneak in a good result. At Talladega over his five starts, Nemechek has a 50% top 14 finish rate but in the other 50% he’s finished in the 30’s. To make matters worse, all of those bad finishes in the 30’s have come in 3 of the last 4 races. Overall in the Next Gen at Talladega, Nemechek ranks 33rd in terms of Driver Rating and 33rd in terms of average finish 27.0.
Talladega Track History – John H Nemechek has very much so been a hero or zero at Talladega. Last fall, Nemechek ran well and swung towards the good column and finished 14th. In the race, Nemechek finished 3rd in Stage #1, finished 9th in Stage #2, led 11 laps and earned the 18th best Driver Rating. Over his other three Next Gen races, close your eyes since he finished between 30th to 33rd. Last spring, Nemechek finished 30th but it’s important to note he didn’t have an incident free afternoon. In the race, Nemechek finished in the 20’s in Stage #1, was running in 15th on lap 108 but then on lap 113 following his green flag pit stop, he spun out and no caution came out, and his afternoon was essentially doomed after that. In fall 2024, Nemechek finished 31st after getting caught up in the “Blaney Big One” to end Stage #2 (nothing special) and then in the spring, Nemechek looked sporty and led 20 laps, but he also crashed, ruining it for nearly all the Toyota’s in their manufacturer mini pack which led to his 33rd. Back in 2020 in the #38, Nemechek had a pair of 8th place finishes.  

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