Texas Wurth 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Austin Dillon
Texas Fantasy Outlook – Texas has been a great track for Austin Dillon. Dillon has a pit strategy win in 2020, has back-to-back top 8’s and over the last 10 races minus 2023 where he crashed his average finish is 10.5. This year at high-speed 1.5’s, Dillon has results of 12th and 16th with a 20.0 average Speed Ranking between the combined races. Heading into the weekend, I would view Dillon as a teens performer but I’ll also note that does feel risky.
Texas Track History – As you read above, Austin Dillon has done a great job at grinding out good results at Texas for an extended period of time and over the last two his average finish is 7.5. Last year, Dillon grinded out a 7th. That said, his average running position was 19th, and his Speed Ranking was 27th, so he clearly benefitted from the attrition and chaos that ensued. To begin the final Stage, Dillon was back in 23rd. In 2024, Dillon didn’t run all that great for much of the race, but when the checkered flag waved, Dillon finished 8th. Additionally, Dillon had a 21.9 average running position and ranked 32nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings, so that should tell you something about how wild the race was. In 2023, nobody had a shorter race than Dillon and he finished last following the opening green flag pit cycle when he lost his wheel and crashed. On lap 35 just prior to his demise, Dillon was in 13th, so perhaps he was going to have a respectable showing. In 2022, Dillon finished 17th (15th best Speed Ranking). Over the three races prior to that, Dillon had results of 14th, 11th and 1st.

Kyle Busch
Texas Fantasy Outlook – Unless Kyle Busch and the RCR #8 team show up with surprise speed, it likely won’t be pretty for Kyle Busch at Texas. Busch has struggled at high-speed 1.5’s this year and just a few weeks ago at Kansas, he finished 4-laps down in 35th, ranking 29th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. At Las Vegas, he wasn’t much better and finished 28th. At Texas in the Next Gen, Busch ranks 7th in terms of Total Speed Rankings but in terms of the results column, he’s 3 for 4 at finishing 20th or worse and has a 24.8 average finish.
Texas Track History – Kyle Busch is a 4-time winner at Texas and his Next Gen Speed Ranking is 7th. That said, finishes are what really matter and in 3 of the last 4 he’s finished 20th or worse. I’ll note, Busch hasn’t often lacked in terms of performance despite the results column being ugly. Last spring, Busch was primed to get a good result, but he finished 20th. In the race, Busch finished 10th in Stage #2 but then on lap 228 while running in 3rd, Busch spun which brought out the caution. Shortly after that on lap 246, Busch was caught up in a multi-car wreck which doomed him to his 20th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Busch ranked 10th. In 2024, Busch started in the rear of the field in a backup car, finished in the 30’s in Stage #1, finished around 19th in Stage #2 and then finished 9th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed analytics, Busch ranked 10th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 24th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2023, Busch was a top five contender but finished an asterisk mark 34th. On lap 60, Busch was in 3rd but then he waved his hand out the window thinking he had a flat and then not much later, Busch backed the #8 into the wall which marked the end of his race. In 2022, Busch completed just 48 laps and crashed which led to his 36th. I’ll note at the time of his demise; Busch was running in 4th after using some pit strategy. Over the first segment in which he competed; Busch ranked 8th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Over the five races prior to that, Busch had results of 8th, 1st, 4th, 7th and 10th.

Todd Gilliland
Texas Fantasy Outlook – High-speed 1.5’s aren’t an area of strength for Todd Gilliland and I would view him as a 20’s performer who’ll have teens upside if things go well and the attrition rate spikes. This year between the two high-speed 1.5’s visited, Gilliland finished 17th at Kansas a few weeks ago and then at Las Vegas he was quite bad and finished 34th. Kansas is the more recent race and his Total Speed Ranking that afternoon was a respectable 15th.
Texas Track History – Texas has been a brutal track for Todd Gilliland and in 3 of his 4 starts, he’s finished 28th or worse and his Next Gen Speed Rankings ranks 31st. That said, Gilliland had his best Lone Star State performance last spring and finished 11th. In the race, Gilliland started 32nd, had a 20.8 average running position and ranked 25th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I would say the high attrition rate helped and also late in the race he was at his best, ranking 14th in terms of 4th segment speed. In 2024, Gilliland had an ugly uncompetitive afternoon and finished 31st. I’ll note, he did get an equipment interference penalty during the Stage #1 caution but that wasn’t a big deal. Additionally, Gilliland had a 19.1 average running position and ranked 25th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2023, Gilliland was relegated to the lesser #51 and finished 35th, with his race being cut short on lap 54 when he lost a wheel which also marked the end of his race. At the time of his demise, Gilliland was deep in the field in 34th.

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