Texas Wurth 400 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Denny Hamlin
Texas Fantasy Outlook – 3-time Texas winner, Denny Hamlin will be tough to beat in the Lone Star State. Hamlin currently has back-to-back misleading results in the 30’s here but don’t let that scare you away. Hamlin’s race was anything, but incident free last spring so avoid takeaways and then in 2024, Hamlin should’ve won his 4th Texas race. This year at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Hamlin’s been the class of the field, racing his way to victory lane at Las Vegas and he should’ve won at Kansas a few weeks ago too if there wasn’t a late caution. In both of those races, Hamlin had the best Total Speed Ranking. At high-speed 1.5’s over the last five races going back to last year, Hamlin has a 1.4 average Speed Ranking. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Texas Track History – Denny Hamlin is a three-time Texas winner and in the Next Gen he ranks among the premiere performers despite having a 50% top ten finish rate and a 50% 30’s finish rate. In terms of Texas Next Gen Speed Rankings, Hamlin ranks 5th. Last year, Hamlin had a brief eventful afternoon and finished 38th. In the race, Hamlin started 8th, was in 7th on lap 20 but then when Gragson spun on lap 20, the #11 team had pit code word mistakes and Hamlin stayed out. Then the following lap after everyone pitted, Hamlin came to pit road which dropped him to the back. Then on lap 73 when Hamlin climbed up to 23rd, his engine blew up which marked the end of his race. Personally, I would just be careful with takeaways, but he did rank 13th for Speed over the first quarter of the race while he was driving up thru the field. In 2024, Hamlin could’ve easily raced his way to victory lane but while he was battling for the lead late, he crashed which led to his 30th. I’ll also note shortly before he crashed, Hamlin was the leader but was burned by a caution just after a restart, which cost him the race and had him in the outside groove which was perilous. In the race, Hamlin had the Fastest Car Late In A Run, had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking, had the 2nd best Average Running Position (7.8), was tied for leading the 3rd most laps (37) and earned the 5th best Driver Rating. In 2023, Hamlin had a great car and finished 5th, despite Ty Gibbs running into him on pit road which did some damage to the #11. I’ll also note that finish underrates him and before late mass mayhem kicked into gear, Hamlin looked poised to finish in 3rd. In the race, Hamlin was fast and ranked #2 in terms of Total Speed Rankings, Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run. In 2022, Hamlin had a great car but finished an asterisk mark 10th. Around lap 268 under caution while running in 2nd, Byron spun him, and it dropped Hamlin all the way back to 22nd. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked 4th for Speed Late In A Run and 8th for Total Speed Rankings.

Tyler Reddick
Texas Fantasy Outlook – Tyler Reddick, the 2022 Texas winner will be tough to beat. Reddick’s been a standout performer in the Lone Star State and he’s fresh off a win at Kansas a few weeks ago. In 2026 between the two high-speed 1.5’s visited, Reddick ranks 5th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings and has a 7.0 average finish. At high-speed 1.5’s going back to last year, Reddick ranks 3rd in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings. At Texas, Reddick has been stout and over the combined races, Reddick ranks 3rd in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings, 3rd for Driver Rating and has a 12.8 average finish which underrates him. On Sunday, look for Reddick to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Texas Track History – Tyler Reddick has been a standout performer at Texas and in 3 of the 4 Next Gen races, he’s been a contender to win. Last year, Reddick was stout but finished an asterisk mark 21st. “Performance Wise”, Reddick ranked among the best. In the race, Reddick started 17th, finished 2nd in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, had the 2nd best average running position (7.1), led 1 lap but then late in the race on lap 254 while running in 6th, Reddick spun out which led to his 21st. In terms of speed stats, Reddick was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and his Total Speed Ranking ranked 2nd. In 2024, Reddick finished 4th but was arguably the best (after Larson had his problem). In the race, Reddick had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best Driver Rating, the best Average Running Position (6.5) and led 37 laps. I’ll note, Reddick did tag the wall in the last Stage, so that hindered him to close out. In 2023, Reddick finished an asterisk mark 25th. On lap 200, Reddick was in 16th but then three laps later during a green flag pit cycle he pitted early and was then burned by a caution which dropped him off the lead lap back into the 30’s. I’ll note, Reddick did rebound and was up to 9th on lap 254, but then on lap 255 he was collected in a “Big One.” In the race, Reddick had the 11th best Total Speed Ranking and a 14.3 average running position. In 2022 en route to victory lane, Reddick led the most laps (70), earned the best driver rating and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking.

Kyle Larson
Texas Fantasy Outlook – Kyle Larson’s a super-elite performer at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks and in the Texas Wurth 400, look for Larson to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. At Texas, Larson’s been a standout performer, and you could argue he’s had the best car in 4 of the last 5 races. In the Next Gen, Larson has the best Next Gen Speed Ranking, the best Driver Rating but has a misleading 16.3 average finish. This year at high-speed 1.5’s, Larson’s been stout, finishing 2nd at Kansas, 7th at Las Vegas and between the combined races he ranks 2nd for Driver Rating, 2nd for average running position and has a 4.0 average Speed Ranking. At high-speed 1.5’s going back to last year over all the combined races, Larson ranks #1 in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings.
Texas Track History – Kyle Larson, the 2021 Texas winner is always tough to beat in the “Lone Star State” but problems have kept him out of victory lane in many of the recent races. Last year, Larson was arguably the best but finished 4th. In the race, Larson finished 4th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led the most laps (90), had the best average running position (3.1) and earned the best Driver Rating. Larson lost the lead during late restart wildness and just wasn’t able to get it back. In terms of speed analytics, Larson ranked #1 for Total Speed Rankings and #2 for Speed Late In A Run. In 2024, Larson looked like he had the field covered but problems kept him out of victory lane. In the race, Larson started on the pole, won Stage #1, led 77 laps (most) but then in Stage #2 after just winning the race off pit road, Larson literally lost a wheel under caution and that put him behind for the rest of the afternoon, leading to his 21st. I’ll note, that also wasn’t Larson’s last problem. With 10 to go he was up to 17th but then he spun which brought out the caution. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 6th with his speed over the segments being 1st, 3rd, 28th and then 6th. In 2023, Larson had a great car, but late mayhem essentially robbed him of what looked like certain victory. In the race, Larson started 11th, won Stage #2, led 99 laps, had a 6.6 average running position (impressive with his early demise), had the best Total Speed Ranking but late cautions led to his ultimate demise and on lap 247 while battling side by side for the lead during a restart with Wallace, he crashed (finished 31st). In 2022, Larson started 9th, won Stage #1, led 19 laps, had a 10.4 average running position and finished 9th. In 2021, Larson raced his way to victory lane in dominant fashion (led 256 laps, perfect driver rating).

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