Dover Fantasy NASCAR All-Star Race Top Tier Elite Picks

Denny Hamlin
Dover Fantasy Outlook – Denny Hamlin has been a dominant performer at Dover and in the All-Star Race, there’s no doubt he’ll be tough to beat. Hamlin currently has back-to-back wins and in many of the other recent races, he’s also been a factor. Since 2018 minus misleading results in 2022, 2020 #2 and 2019 #1, Hamlin has a 3.6 average finish. In the Next Gen, Hamlin has the best Total Speed Ranking, the 2nd best Driver Rating and a 2.3 average finish over the last three. This year at intermediate tracks, Hamlin has the best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and the best average finish (4.5).
Dover Track History – Denny Hamlin has performed at an elite-level at Dover and has owned this concrete 1.0-mile oval in recent races. Last year, Hamlin was clutch and raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Hamlin started 13th, finished 3rd in both Stage #1 and #2, had the 2nd best average running position (3.7), earned the 2nd best Driver Rating, led 67 laps and of course raced his way to victory lane. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked 2nd for both Total Speed Rankings and Speed Late In A Run. In 2024 when the trophy was on the line, Hamlin hit the after burners and raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Hamlin had the best average running position (4.1), led the most laps (136), earned the best Driver Rating and of course finished 1st. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run. In 2023, Hamlin ranked among the best. In the race, Hamlin had a 4.9 average running position, earned the 5th best Driver Rating and then finished 5th overall. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked 3rd for Total Speed Rankings and then 5th for Speed Late In A Run. In 2022, Hamlin might’ve just had the best car, but his race was anything but incident free. In the race, Hamlin started 2nd, led 67 laps, won Stage #1 but then following the Stage #1 pit stops, he lost a wheel which dropped him all the way back to the mid 20’s. Hamlin battled back and was up to 4th on lap 240, but then Cody Ware spun in front of him and clipped the #11. That ended his competitive afternoon but to make things worse, he later got a speeding penalty. When the checkered flag waved, Hamlin finished 21st.

NOTE: ALL The drivers in this post are locked into Stage #3 of the NASCAR All-Star Race. Drivers in the lower tiered posts are not locked in.

Chase Elliott
Dover Fantasy Outlook – Two-time Dover winner, Chase Elliott should be on your short list of favorites to win the All-Star Race. Elliott’s thrived at the “Monster Mile” and in the Next Gen, Elliott won the first race, has the 2nd best average finish (5.8), the 2nd best Next Gen Speed Ranking and ranks 3rd for Driver Rating. This year at intermediate tracks, Elliott’s been elite, winning at Texas and ranking 3rd for both average finish (6.5) and intermediate track Total Speed Rankings.
Dover Track History – Chase Elliott has been a force to be reckoned with at Dover and for his career minus an accident (2020 #2) and an engine failure (2019 #2), Elliott has a 4.8 average finish. Also for his career minus those two races, Elliott has an 84.6% top six finish rate, and he’s had a result in the top 12 every race. Last year, the #9 was fast and ranked among the best. In the race, Elliott won the pole, won Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, had the best average running position (2.4), earned the best driver rating, led the most laps (238) and then finished 6th overall. I’ll note, Elliott could’ve had an even more dominant performance but during green flag pit stops in Stage #2 while leading, he had a slow pit stop that dropped him from 1st to 5th. On lap 380 before late cautions broke out, Elliott was running in 3rd. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Elliott ranked #1. In 2024, Elliott started way back in 29th but that wasn’t a problem. The #9 was fast and Elliott had no problems driving up thru the field, finishing 9th in Stage # 1, 5th in Stage #2 and then finishing 5th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed stats, Elliott ranked 4th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2023, Elliott finished 11th but I would be careful reading into that afternoon since it was early in his return following injury. In the race, Elliott finished 11th, had an 11.6 average running position and had the 12th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2022, Elliott hit the afterburners and raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Elliott had a 4.1 average running position, led 71 laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking and then ranked 3rd for speed late in a run.

Kyle Larson
Dover Fantasy Outlook – Kyle Larson’s a super-elite performer at Dover who’s always tough competition at “The Monster Mile.” At Dover, Larson’s a former winner (2019), he’s finished in the top five 52.9% of the time, in the top ten 76.4% of the time and his career average finish is 7.9, which ranks as the best in the series. In the Next Gen minus 2023 where he might’ve just been the best but crashed, Larson’s average finish is 3.0 and his Speed Ranking is 5.3. This year at intermediate tracks minus Texas, Larson has a 6.6 average Speed Ranking. On Sunday, look for Larson to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Dover Track History – Kyle Larson is an elite performer at Dover, and it ranks among his best tracks. Larson raced his way to victory lane here in fall 2019 and since 2019 minus 2023 (crash) his average finish is 3.0! Last year, Larson started deep in the field in 25th but raced his way to a 4th. In the race, Larson finished 10th in Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2 and was in 4th on lap 380, before late wildness ensued. In terms of speed stats, Larson ranked as being the fastest driver late in a run and his Total Speed Ranking was 5th, with him ranking 13th, 6th, 3rd and 2nd over the segments. In 2024, Larson dominated much of the race but came up short in closing time. In the race, Larson started 21st, finished 5th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 5.0 average running position, earned the 3rd best Driver Rating, led 39 laps and then finished 2nd. In terms of Speed Stats, Larson was tied for #1 for Total Speed Rankings and ranked as the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In 2023, Larson might’ve just been the best but he finished an asterisk mark 32nd. In the race, Larson started 18th but had no trouble slicing and dicing his way up thru the running order. On lap 81 when he climbed up to 5th, Ross Chastain decided to wreck the #15 and Larson was caught up in the carnage and got heavy damage which doomed his afternoon. In 2022, Larson didn’t have an incident free race but rallied to finish 6th. In 2021, Larson won Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 1.8 average running position, led 263 laps and finished 2nd. In terms of speed analytics, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best green flag speed and was the fastest driver late in a run. In his two races prior to that, Larson had results of 1st (led 154 laps) and 3rd.

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