Dover Fantasy NASCAR All-Star Race Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Riley Herbst
Dover Fantasy Outlook – Riley Herbst has been showing improvement on the track in 2026 and that will need to continue at Dover if he’s going to make Stage #3. The #35 team has a good intermediate track program and at the last two intermediates visited, he’s come home with results of 11th (Texas) and 14th (Kansas). Those tracks aren’t direct comps to Dover, but they are fellow intermediates. Heading into the weekend, I think he’s in coin toss territory of making Stage #3.
Dover Track History – Last year at Dover in his only Cup start at the Monster Mile, Herbst finished 24th, had a 29.9 average running position and ranked 30th in terms of Total Speed Rankings.

NOTE: Drivers in this post are NOT locked into Stage #3 of the All-Star Race

Connor Zilisch
Dover Fantasy Outlook – At Dover, I think Connor Zilisch will likely have his work cut out to make the All-Star Race. Intermediate tracks haven’t been a strong suit and in 2026 on this track type, Zilisch has a pair of teen finishes, a best finish of 16th (Texas), a 23.8 average finish and ranks 29th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings.
Dover Track History – In Cup, Connor Zilisch has obviously not competed at Dover. Last year in the O’Reilly series, Zilisch led 77 laps and raced his way to victory lane.

John H Nemechek
Dover Fantasy Outlook – John H Nemechek seems like an easy name to predict he’ll miss the Stage #3 cut. The #42 team is typically a low 20’s team at best and at Dover in the Next Gen, he’s 2 for 2 at finishing in the low 20’s with a 20.5 average finish and ranks 26th in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. This year at intermediate tracks, Nemechek ranks 22nd in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings and in terms of the results column he’s finished in the 20’s every race and has a 22.75 average finish.
Dover Track History – At Dover, John H Nemechek is 4 for 4 at finishing between 20th to 24th with a 21.3 average finish. Last year, Nemechek finished 21st, had a 25.7 average running position and ranked 25th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2024, Nemechek finished 20th and had a 25.2 average running position. Back in 2020 when he next most recently raced during the doubles, Nemechek’s finishes were 20th and 24th.

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