Pocono The Great American Getaway 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Riley Herbst
Pocono Fantasy Outlook – Riley Herbst has shown improvement in 2026 and hopefully that trend continues at Pocono where he had an ugly debut last summer and finished last. Heading into the weekend, I would just view him as a mid-pack driver who’ll have potential upside.
Pocono Track History – Last year at Pocono in his only Cup start here, nobody had a shorter race than Riley Herbst and he finished last (37th). In the race, Herbst finished about 24th in Stage #1 and then fairly early in Stage #2 on lap 42 while running in the mid 20’s, Herbst had a brake rotor issue and got into the wall hard, leading to his 37th. Over the first quarter of the race which was incident free for him, Herbst ranked as having the 24th fastest car on the track.

Austin Dillon
Pocono Fantasy Outlook – It’s always hard to foresee something good happening if you pick Austin Dillon and it’s typically best to just have mid-pack expectations, which is what I have. At Pocono, Dillon has a 19.4 average finish over his 20 starts, and he’s only cracked the top ten once which was a 10th. Heading into the weekend, I would just view him as a 20’s driver who’ll have teens upside.
Pocono Track History – At Pocono over the last three races, Austin Dillon’s finished 23rd or worse. In the Next Gen era, Dillon ranks 27th for Speed, 27th for Driver Rating and has a 22.8 average finish. Last year, Dillon just wasn’t good. In the race, Dillon finished 24th, had a 21.6 average running position and ranked 28th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2024, Dillon had a pretty similar afternoon and in that race, Dillon finished 23rd, had a 26.4 average running position, earned the 28th best Driver Rating and ranked 31st in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2023, Dillon looked poised to have a good afternoon but on lap 105 while running in 11th, Dillon crashed. When the checkered flag waved, Dillon finished 34th. In 2022, Dillon had his only Pocono top ten and came home 10th but of course it took Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin disqualifications to accomplish it. In the race, Dillon had a 16.4 average running position and the 16th best Total Speed Ranking.

AJ Allmendinger
Pocono Fantasy Outlook – At Pocono in the Next Gen, AJ Allmendinger is 3 for 3 at finishing between 17th to 21st, has a 19.7 average finish, ranks 20th for Next Gen Speed Rankings and has the 26th best Driver Rating. Going further back, in 6 of his last 7 races he’s finished between 17th to 23rd and I think another finish around that range should likely be expected this weekend.
Pocono Track History – At Pocono in the Next Gen, AJ Allmendinger has a 19.7 average finish and over the last two he has back-to-back 21st’s. Last summer en route to his 21st, Allmendinger started 33rd, had a 25.7 average running position and ranked 28th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2024, Allmendinger finished 21st, had a 22.8 average running position and then ranked 26th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2023, Allmendinger finished 17th, had a 16.9 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking was tied for being the 9th best.

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