Richmond Cook Out 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Erik Jones
Richmond Fantasy Outlook – At Richmond, I’m not expecting much out of Erik Jones and it’s likely wise to just expect a mid-pack finish. At “The Action Track”, he’s finished 19th or worse in 10 of the last 11 races, so it’s clear nothing good will likely happen if you pick him. In the Next Gen era, Jones has a 25.9 average finish and ranks 29th in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings.
Richmond History – In the Next Gen at Richmond, Erik Jones is 6 for 7 at finishing 23rd or worse with his lone outlier being a 14th. Last summer, Jones wasn’t competitive and was also collected in the lap 198 “Big One” and went on to finish 26th. Prior to his involvement in the crash, he was running in the mid 20’s so you can’t say it hurt him too much. In summer 2024, Jones had an ugly evening and finished 29th. Additionally, Jones had a 29.1 average running position, ranked 30th in terms of Driver Rating and ranked 32nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In spring 2024, Jones was solid and finished 14th, which is legit with him being at his best down the stretch. Additionally, Jones had a 19.1 average running position and ranked 21st in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Over the four races prior to that, Jones had results of 23rd, 31st, 35th (crashed in the final Stage while running around 20th) and then 23rd.

Michael McDowell
Richmond Fantasy Outlook –Michael McDowell has a pair of teen finishes at Richmond over the last two races and I would consider it a good day for him if he notches a third. Richmond really hasn’t been a good track for him and overall in the Next Gen his average finish is 20.7, he ranks 25th for Driver Rating and then 26th for Speed. I’ll note, McDowell has had some success at shorter-flat tracks in quite a few of the recent races (in 3 of the last 5 he’s finished in the top ten), so he’ll have some dark horse upside for the risk takers, but I think it’s best to just view him as slightly better than mid-pack.
Richmond History – In the Next Gen at Richmond, McDowell has a 20.7 average finish and he’s finished 22nd or worse in 4 of the 7 races. Going back further, he’s finished 21st or worse in 11 of the last 14 races. Over the last two, McDowell’s average finish is 16th. Last year, McDowell finished 17th, had a 17.6 average running position and then ranked 28th in terms of Total Speed Rankings (pit strategy hurt him). In 2024 #2, McDowell had one of his better Richmond races and finished 15th. Additionally, McDowell had a 13.7 average running position and ranked 15th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll also note, McDowell did use out of sync pit strategy with the option tires and those made him artificially good. In spring 2024, McDowell finished 26th, had a 29.2 average running position and his Speed Ranking ranked 29th. In summer 2023, McDowell had a pretty un-notable performance and finished 22nd. In spring 2023, McDowell caught a lucky break caution and finished 6th. In the race, McDowell had the 15th best Total Speed Ranking, a 16.1 average running position but take note he did catch a lucky break caution at the end when he used pit strategy and ran longer than others. On lap 340 before the final green flag pit cycle started, he was running in 18th.

Connor Zilisch
Richmond Fantasy Outlook – Connor Zilisch is likely primed for a rough evening at Richmond, but he’ll have dark horse upside for the risk takers. Iowa was designed with Richmond inspiration and just last race he finished 11th, had a 9.9 average running position and ranked 12th for Total Speed Rankings. If you pick him, I think it’s best to be braced for the worst and bring a good luck charm.
Richmond History – Connor Zilisch has never raced at Richmond on the Cup level or in the O’Reilly series (not on the 2025 O’Reilly series schedule).

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