Richmond Cook Out 400 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Denny Hamlin
Richmond Fantasy Outlook – 5-time Richmond winner, Denny Hamlin is a super-elite shorter-flat track performer and the road to victory lane likely goes thru him. Hamlin’s thrived at Richmond in the Next Gen and over the combined races, Hamlin ranks #1 across the board for average finish (5.7), Next Gen Speed Rankings and Driver Rating. Going further back, in 15 of the last 19 races he’s finished in the top 6. Over the last nine races minus spring 2023, Hamlin has a 3.0 average finish. When it comes to racing at shorter-flat tracks Hamlin ranks among the premiere performers and since 2025 he ranks 2nd for average finish (7.4) and he’s tied for 3rd for Speed.
Richmond History – Denny Hamlin has consistently performed at a super-elite level at Richmond.  In terms of the results column in the Next Gen (last 7 races), Hamlin has 2-win’s, five top 4-finishes and he’s 6 for 7 at finishing in the top ten. Last year, Hamlin said his car was exceptional, but the #11 team couldn’t execute. In the race, Hamlin started 4th, finished 3rd in Stage #1, was caught speeding during the Stage #1 caution which dropped him to the back, had a 5-second slow pit stop during green flag pit stops in Stage #2, was later caught up in the lap 198 “Big One” and got minor damage, finished about 12th in Stage #2 and then finished 10th overall. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked 5th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 8th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2024 over the combined races, Hamlin nearly pulled out the broom and had a 1.5 average finish. In 2024 #2, Hamlin won the pole, finished 2nd in Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led 124 laps, had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 2nd overall. Hamlin was leading for a microsecond in overtime but then Dillon wrecked him. In spring 2024, Hamlin didn’t have the best car but that didn’t stop him from reaching victory lane. In the race, Hamlin finished 5th in Stage #2, led 17 laps, had an 8.2 average running position but take note he was on pace to finish in 3rd until the late caution came out, in which the #11 pit crew vaulted him from 3rd to the lead. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 9th for Speed Late In A Run. In summer 2023, Hamlin ranked among the best. In the race, Hamlin finished 3rd in Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, had a 3.8 average running position, led 20 laps, earned the 2nd best Driver Rating and then finished 2nd overall. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2023, Hamlin might’ve just been the best (led 71 laps), but he got two speeding penalties and had an excessively slow pit stop which led to his asterisk mark 20th. Over the four races prior to that, Hamlin had results of 4th, 1st, 2nd and 2nd.

Christopher Bell
Richmond Fantasy Outlook – Christopher Bell is one of the premiere shorter-flat track performers and at Richmond, he’ll be tough to beat. That said, the most likely driver to beat Bell is himself, and currently Bell has an ongoing four-race streak of getting pit road penalties at Richmond. In the Next Gen, Bell ranks 3rd for Speed, 3rd for Driver Rating and has the 5th best average finish (9.3) which underrates him. In terms of the results column, he’s 5 for 7 at finishing between 2nd to 6th with his two outliers being due to pit road problems ruining his races. Bell has never won at Richmond in Cup, but he’s consistently performed at an elite level, and I think he has a good chance to change that on Saturday night.
Richmond History – Christopher Bell has been a fantasy ace at Richmond and in the Next Gen, Bell ranks 3rd for Speed, 3rd for Driver Rating and has the 5th best average finish, despite having four straight races with pit road penalties. Last year, Bell looked great but multiple problems led to his 21st. In the race, Bell started 8th, finished 6th in Stage #1, finished 11th in Stage #2 but then during the Stage #2 caution, he had a slow pit stop that dropped him to 25th. Bell rebounded back up to 13th on lap 270 but then during a green flag pit cycle on lap 294, Bell got a commitment cone penalty which doomed him to his 21st. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Bell ranked 6th. In fall 2024,  Bell had a rocket and finished 6th, which you can get out an asterisk mark for. In the race, Bell won Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, led 122 laps but then in the final Stage on lap 283 while leading (before the pit cycle), Bell was caught speeding on pit road. Being able to finish 6th with that problem and a lack of cautions is very impressive. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Bell ranked #1. In spring 2024, Bell might’ve just been able to pull off the win, but he finished 6th. In the race, Bell started 29th, finished 6th in Stage #2, led 9 laps but then in the final Stage when he was running long during a green flag pit cycle which would’ve given him a tire advantage at the end, Bell was caught speeding on pit road. On lap 283 before that green flag pit cycle started, Bell was running in 4th. In terms of speed stats, Bell ranked 4th for Speed Late In A Run and 5th for Total Speed Rankings. In summer 2023, Bell started 29th, finished 20th and had a 22.1 average running position. I’ll note, on lap 133 while running in 18th, Bell got a speeding penalty, so his race wasn’t exactly incident free. In spring 2023, Bell was one of the best. In the race, Bell finished 8th in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, had a 6.2 average running position, led 26 laps and then finished 4th overall. In terms of speed stats, Bell had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 3rd for Speed Late In A Run. In the four races prior to that, Bell had results of 2nd, 6th, 3rd and 4th.

Joey Logano
Richmond Fantasy Outlook – Joey Logano is an elite shorter-flat track performer who should be high on your radar at Richmond. Logano’s a 2-time winner and in 8 of the last 10 races, he’s finished between 2nd to 7th. Since 2022 #2 minus 2024 #2 where he was wrecked in overtime while leading by Dillon, Logano’s average finish is 4.6. Overall in the Next Gen at Richmond, Logano ranks 2nd for Speed, 2nd for Driver Rating and has the 3rd best average finish (8.4). When it comes to racing at shorter-flat tracks, Logano’s one of the best and since 2025 he ranks 2nd for Speed and 3rd for average finish. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Logano has the best Speed Ranking.
Richmond History – Joey Logano has performed at a super-elite level at Richmond and in terms of “Performance” in the Next Gen, he’s been top 7 good every race. Last year, Logano was stout and finished 4th. In the race, Logano started 38th, finished about 20th in Stage #1, finished about 15th in Stage #2, had an 11.9 average running position and then finished 4th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Logano ranked 7th. In summer 2024, Logano was on pace to finish 3rd until overtime came out, and then he nearly snuck in a win until Dillon crashed him in overtime while leading (19th). In the race, Logano finished 4th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, had a 4.5 average running position (2nd best) and was running in 3rd at the time of the late caution coming out. In spring 2024, the #22 was a rocket and Logano finished runner-up. In the race, Logano finished 5th in Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage # 2, had a 4.6 average running position and then finished 2nd overall. In terms of speed stats, Logano ranked as the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and ranked 2nd for both Total Speed Rankings and Green Flag Speed. Over the four races prior to that, Logano had results of 4th, 7th, 6th and 17th (top five contender, had a slow pit stop in the last Stage while running in 2nd and simply didn’t bounce back).

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