Bristol Bass Pro Shops Night Race Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – For many years I’ve hailed Bristol as Ricky Stenhouse Jr.’s best track outside of superspeedways but the results column has just been abysmal for an extended period of time and in 12 of the last 14 races, he’s finished 17th or worse. Prior to his ongoing cold streak, Stenhouse finished in the top ten in 6 of the 9 races. In the Next Gen, Stenhouse has a top ten but over the other six he’s finished 17th or worse. In terms of Next Gen analytics, Stenhouse ranks 23rd for Driver Rating, 25th for Speed and his 23.4 average finish ranks 26th.
Bristol Raceway History – Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is a capable performer at Bristol, but times have been super lean. This spring, Stenhouse had a mid-pack afternoon. In the race, Stenhouse finished 17th, had a 20.8 average running position and ranked 25th for Total Speed Rankings. Last year, Stenhouse went 2 for 2 at finishing 22nd. Last summer en route to a 22nd, Stenhouse had a 15.2 average running position and ranked 24th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note, Stenhouse spun on lap 147 while running in 13th, and then later Wallace spun him again on lap 354 while running in 21st. Last spring, Stenhouse had “tease” potential but turned out to be a dud. In the race, Stenhouse started 2nd, finished 8th in Stage #1, finished around 18th in Stage #2, earned the 17th best Driver Rating and then finished 22nd. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Stenhouse ranked 20th and got slower as the race progressed. In summer 2024, Stenhouse finished 27th, had a 29.3 average running position and then ranked 31st for Total Speed Rankings. In spring 2024, Stenhouse finished 33rd after being involved in two cautions. On lap 170, Stenhouse was in 19th but then just after that on lap 176 he was involved in his first caution, and he never recovered from that. In 2023, Stenhouse had his first good result in years and finished 10th. In 2022, Stenhouse had a short race and finished 33rd. In the race, Stenhouse showed low double-digit potential, was running in 13th on lap 277 but then later that lap, Suarez got loose and ran into him which caused a “Big One.”

Todd Gilliland
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – Todd Gilliland had a great performance this spring at Bristol out of seemingly nowhere (6th), but I think it’s best to be braced for a mid-pack afternoon. None of his other Bristol results are remotely close to that and over the combined Next Gen era his average finish is 22.4, he ranks 28th for Speed and then 29th for Driver Rating.
Bristol Raceway History – This spring at Bristol, Todd Gilliland finished 6th. Over the four races prior to that he finished 24th or worse. This spring, Gilliland started 35th, finished Stage #1 off the lead lap in 31st, finished Stage #2 in 17th and then over the last Stage, he continued his march towards the front. On lap 474 before two late cautions broke out, he was in 8th, so that 6th is actually legitimate. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Gilliland ranked 15th with his speed over the segments being 33rd, 19th, 11th and then 7th. Last summer, Gilliland finished 24th, had a 29.6 average running position and ranked 35th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, the #34 was out to lunch and Gilliland never ran well. In the race, Gilliland finished 35th, had a 31st place average running position and ranked 30th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note, he did use some out of sync pit strategy to get back on the lead lap during the Stage #2 caution that backfired, but he was nothing more than a mid 20’s performer prior to that. In summer 2024, Gilliland was quite bad and finished 32nd. In spring 2024’s high-wear race, Gilliland finished 26th. In the two races prior to that, Gilliland finished 16th (2023) and 18th (2022).

Austin Dillon
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – Picking Austin Dillon at Bristol will likely not go well. In the Next Gen, Dillon is 6 for 7 at finishing 17th or worse and over the combined races his average finish is 21.3, he ranks 26th for Driver Rating and then 27th for Speed. Dillon was just mid-pack this spring en route to a 18th, and I think it’s likely wise to expect more of the same if not worse.
Bristol Raceway History – At Bristol in 4 of the last 6 races, Dillon’s finished between 17th to 24th. This spring, Dillon had a mid-pack afternoon and finished within that range. In the race, Dillon finished 18th, had a 19.5 average running position and ranked 23rd for Total Speed Rankings. Last summer, Dillon had an uncompetitive evening, finishing 28th, had a 30.3 average running position and ranked 37th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I don’t think Dillon had any real issues in the race; he was just that bad. Last spring, Dillon had his best Next Gen Bristol race and finished 10th. Additionally, Dillon earned the 13th best Driver Rating and ranked 15th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In summer 2024, Dillon finished 21st, had a 21.8 average running position and ranked 26th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In spring 2024’s high-wear race, Dillon finished 24th and had a 25.4 average running position. In 2023, Dillon finished 17th.

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