Bristol Bass Pro Shops Night Race Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Kyle Larson
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – Kyle Larson’s a super-elite performer at Bristol and on Saturday night, look for him to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. Larson was a standout performer this spring and in the Next Gen era, he’s a 2-time winner and minus last summer, his average Speed Ranking is 2.5, his average finish is 2.8, and he’s had a result in the top 5 every race. Over the combined Bristol Next Gen races, Larson has the best average finish (7.0), he’s tied for #1 for Speed and his Driver Rating is the 2nd best.
Bristol Raceway History – Kyle Larson’s a 3-time winner at Bristol and since 2017 minus spring 2019 and last summer, Larson has a 3.4 average finish. This spring, Larson was a standout performer. In the race, Larson won Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a race best 1.7 average running position, led the most laps (284), earned the best Driver Rating and then finished 3rd. Before the last two late cautions came out, Larson was running in 3rd. In terms of speed stats, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking but ranked 6th for Speed Late In A Run. Last summer, Larson had a tough race and finished 32nd, but I would be careful with takeaways from that extreme tire wear race. Larson didn’t look good; he struggled and also broke his toe link along the way. Last spring, Larson put on a display of domination. In the race, Larson won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 411 laps, earned the best Driver Rating and of course raced his way to victory lane. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked #1 and fielded the fastest car over all four segments. In summer 2024, Larson was the class of the field and easily raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Larson won Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a perfect Total Speed Ranking, came close to having a perfect Driver Rating, had a 1.1 average running position and led 462 laps. In spring 2024 which was another high-wear race, Larson finished 5th. Over the three races prior to that, Larson had results of 2nd, 5th and 1st.

Christopher Bell
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – Defending summer winner, Christopher Bell’s a super-elite performer at Bristol who’ll be tough to beat under the lights. Bell’s been a standout performer and in the Next Gen, Bell ranks #1 for Speed, #1 for Driver Rating and minus this spring where he looked top five good but had problems his average finish is 5.2. On Saturday night, look for Bell to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Bristol Raceway History – Christopher Bell has been a standout performer at Thunder Valley in the Next Gen and over the combined races he ranks #1 for Speed, #1 for Driver Rating and then 3rd for Average Finish (8.3). This spring, Bell looked like a contender to win but finished an asterisk mark 27th. In the race, Bell started 14th, drove up to finish 2nd in Stage #1 but then during the Stage #1 caution, he was caught speeding on pit road. That dropped Bell deep in the pack and then on lap 143 while running in 26th, he got loose, into the wall and then spun, damaging the #20 and from that point on his afternoon was toast. Over the first quarter of the race which was incident free for Bell, he ranked as having the 2nd fastest car on the track. Last summer in a high-tire wear race, Bell was impressive, racing his way to victory lane in clutch fashion with a pass from 3rd to the lead with 3-laps to go. In the race, Bell didn’t place in either opening Stage, had an 11.4 average running position and only led 12 laps, but he bid his time and was up front when the trophy was on the line. Additionally, Bell earned the 6th best Driver Rating and ranked 9th for Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Bell looked great. In the race, Bell finished 6th in Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, had a 7.3 average running position and then finished 8th overall. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Bell ranked 7th. In summer 2024, Bell finished 5th, had a 4.6 average running position, earned the 2nd best Driver Rating and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2024 in the other high-tire wear race, Bell had the 2nd best average running position (5.7), ranked 6th for Speed, led 29 laps and then finished 10th which underrates him since late in the race he had a tire issue. Over the two races prior to that, Bell had results of 3rd and 4th.

Ryan Blaney
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – Ryan Blaney’s an elite performer at Bristol who’ll be a driver to be reckoned with. Blaney was the class of the field this spring and in terms of pure Bristol talent, he’s undisputedly the best who’s never won there. The Next Gen era got off to a rough start for Blaney but over the last four, Blaney has a 4.3 average finish and a 4.5 average Speed Ranking. Heading into the weekend, look for Blaney to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Bristol Raceway History – Ryan Blaney has finished better in each new Next Gen race at Bristol so hopefully that trend won’t end since his last four finishes are 6th, 5th, 4th and then 2nd. This spring, Blaney was stout and in the second half of the race, he dominated. In the race, Blaney won the pole, finished 3rd in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, had a 2.6 average running position, led 190 laps and then finished 2nd overall. Late in the race on lap 474, Blaney was the leader but then during a caution just after that, he pitted which dropped him back to 7th, so he had to rally hard for his runner-up. In terms of speed stats, Blaney was tied for the best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 4th for Speed Late In A Run. Last summer, Blaney ranked among the best. In the race, Blaney won Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, led 30 laps, earned the 2nd best Driver Rating, had the 2nd best average running position (7.2) and ranked 5th for Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Blaney was a factor and ran an out of sync pit strategy race late, running long in hopes of catching a caution and trapping a lot of the field a lap down. In the race, Blaney started 5th, finished 7th in Stage #1, finished 8th in Stage #2, had a 6.4 average running position, led 48 laps and then finished 5th overall. In terms of speed stats, Blaney ranked 3rd for Speed Late In A Run and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. In summer 2024, Blaney started 22nd, finished 9th in Stage #2 and then finished 6th when the checkered flag waved. Additionally, Blaney had the 8th best Total Speed Ranking and the 8th best Driver Rating. In spring 2024’s high tire wear race, Blaney started on the pole, finished 6th in Stage #1, was caught speeding during a caution in Stage #2 while running in 10th, got shuffled out of line in the last Stage around lap 394 while running just short of the top ten and then finished 16th overall.

Ty Gibbs
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – Spring winner, Ty Gibbs should prominently be on your fantasy NASCAR radar at Bristol. Bristol’s been a great track for Gibbs and in the Next Gen he ranks 3rd for Speed, 4th for Driver Rating and has the 5th best average finish (11.1). In terms of the results column minus 2022, Gibbs is 5 for 6 at finishing in the top ten with an 8.2 average finish. “Performance Wise”, Gibbs could’ve easily won the last two races here under both tire wear scenarios, so he’s a driver you can pick with a lot of confidence despite that great unknown variable. Heading into the weekend, look for Gibbs to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Bristol Raceway History – Ty Gibbs has performed at a high-level at Bristol and if it wasn’t for a pit road snafu last summer, Gibbs would likely have three straight top 3’s here. This spring, Gibbs came up clutch and raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Gibbs started 5th, looked bad early, finished Stage #1 in about 16th, finished Stage #2 in 7th, was in 2nd on lap 474 but then during a caution just after that, he got the lead by not pitting and he then hung tough and led the remainder of the race. Additionally, Gibbs led 25 laps (last 25), had a 7.6 average running position and earned the 3rd best Driver Rating. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Gibbs ranked 6th but take note his speed over the segments were 14th, 7th, 3rd and then 2nd. Last summer, Gibbs was the class of the field but finished an asterisk mark 10th. In the race, Gibbs finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 201 laps and had a 4.8 average running position. In the last Stage during the final green flag pit cycle while leading, Gibbs had major problems coming to pit road, which included him missing it which cost him a lot of time, leading to his asterisk mark result. Last spring, Gibbs had the 4th best average running position (6.6), earned the 5th best Driver Rating and then finished 3rd overall. In terms of speed stats, Gibbs had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 9th for Speed Late In A Run. In summer 2024, Gibbs started 15th, finished 8th in Stage #1 but then during that Stage caution, Gibbs was caught speeding on pit road which dropped him back to the mid 20’s. Passing was difficult, and Gibbs just wasn’t able to fully bounce back and finished 15th as a result. Additionally, Gibbs had a 13.8 average running position and the 15th best Total speed Ranking. In spring 2024 in a high-wear race, Gibbs was arguably the best but finished an asterisk mark 9th. In the race, Gibbs won Stage #1, won Stage #2, earned the 3rd best driver rating, led 137 laps and had the best Total Speed Ranking. In the race, Gibbs got a pit penalty around lap 180 while leading and then late in the race, Gibbs also had a flat tire. Prior to his race going south late, Gibbs was running in 3rd. In 2023, Gibbs had the 2nd best average running position (4.4), the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking, finished 5th and led 102 laps.

Denny Hamlin
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – 4-time Bristol winner, Denny Hamlin should be on your short list of favorites. In the Next Gen, Hamlin ranks 2nd for average finish (8.1), 3rd for Driver Rating and then 4th for Speed. In terms of the Next Gen results column minus last summer, Hamlin has a 4.3 average finish, and he’s had a result in the top 9 every race. On Saturday night, look for Hamlin to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Bristol Raceway History – Denny Hamlin ranks among the premiere performers at Bristol. In the Next Gen, Hamlin’s won twice, he’s 6 for 7 at finishing in the top nine and ranks 4th for Speed. This spring, Hamlin had a strong showing. In the race, Hamlin started 11th, finished 7th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, had the 5th best average running position (5.1), earned the 6th best Driver Rating and then finished 9th. On lap 474, Hamlin was in 6th, but he did some late pit strategy with the late cautions which had him as low as 13th to start overtime. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked 5th for both Total Speed Rankings and Speed Late In A Run. Last summer, the #11 team was thrown a curveball with the tire wear situation, and they whiffed with Hamlin finishing 31st. That said, that’s an asterisk mark result and he was realistically around 10th place good. In the race, Hamlin started 6th, finished Stage #1 in about 11th, finished Stage #2 in about 11th again, ran much of the last Stage right around that range, was up to 2nd on lap 361 following a little pit strategy but then on lap 365, he rapidly dropped back and got into the wall. Then shortly after that on lap 383, he lost a wheel. Last spring, Hamlin finished runner-up. In the race, Hamlin finished 2nd in Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, had a 3rd place average running position, earned the 2nd best Driver Rating and then finished 2nd overall. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the fastest car late in a run and ranked 2nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In summer 2024, Hamlin finished 4th, had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and a 4.6 average running position. In spring 2024 when tire wear was also high, Hamlin finished 1st, led the most laps (163) and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. Over the two races prior to that, Hamlin had results of 1st and 9th.

Chase Briscoe
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – Look for Chase Briscoe to be fast at Bristol and potentially be a factor. Briscoe’s run great here and currently he’s tied for having a series best 4-straight top 10’s with his average finish being 6.5 over his hot streak. Overall in the Next Gen, Briscoe ranks 5th for Speed, 6th for Driver Rating and then 6th for average finish (11.4). Heading into the weekend, look for Briscoe to be a top ten performer who’ll potentially be a factor for a top five.
Bristol Raceway History – Chase Briscoe has been solid at Bristol, and he’s consistently finished well. In 7 of his 8 starts, Briscoe’s finished between 4th to 14th. This spring, Briscoe had a top five showing. In the race, Briscoe finished 4th in Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, had the 3rd best average running position (5.7) and then finished 5th overall. In terms of speed stats, Briscoe ranked 3rd for both Total Speed Rankings and Speed Late In A Run. Last summer when tire wear was extreme, Briscoe started 31st, had a 10.5 average running position, led the 2nd most laps (127) and then finished 9th overall. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Briscoe ranked 5th. Last spring, Briscoe had his all-time best Bristol performance. In the race, Briscoe started 14th, finished 9th in Stage #2, had an 8.6 average running position and then finished 4th overall. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Briscoe ranked 5th. In summer 2024 in his old ride, Briscoe finished 7th in Stage #1, finished 8th in Stage #2, had a 5.7 average running position, had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 8th overall. In spring 2024 when tire wear was extreme, Briscoe finished 13th.

Carson Hocevar
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – Look for Carson Hocevar to perform at a high-level at Bristol and be a top ten contender. Hocevar’s run quite well here recently and over the last three races his average finish is 9.8, and that even underrates him since he’s performed better than he’s finished in every one of those races. Overall in the Next Gen era, Hocevar ranks 9th for Driver Rating, 11th for Speed and then 11th for average finish (14.0). When it comes to racing hard, Hocevar isn’t afraid to get rough and move people and I’m sure he’s more than willing to do whatever it takes.
Bristol Raceway History – Carson Hocevar has run well at Bristol and over the last three his average finish is 9.8 and he’s finished in the top 11. This spring, Hocevar had a strong showing. In the race, Hocevar started 10th, finished 7th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, had the 4th best average running position (6.1), earned the 4th best Driver Rating and then finished 10th. On lap 474 before two late cautions broke out, Hocevar was running in 4th, and late wildness caused him to drop back to finish 10th. In terms of speed stats, Hocevar was tied for 3rd for Total Speed Rankings and ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run. Last summer, Hocevar looked really good and finished 7th, which underrates him. Before the final restart, Hocevar was the race leader. In the race, Hocevar finished 5th in Stage #2, led 26 laps, earned the 5th best Driver Rating, had the 6th best average running position (9.5) and then finished 7th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Hocevar ranked 11th with his speed over the segments being 33rd, 5th, 9th and 2nd. Last spring, Hocevar was one of the best. In the race, Hocevar started 9th, finished 5th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, had a 6.8 average running position, earned the 4th best Driver Rating, was running in 3rd on lap 393 but then that lap during his final green flag pit stop, the #77 team had major trouble servicing his car which dropped him off the lead lap. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Hocevar ranked 3rd.

Joey Logano
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – Joey Logano is a 2-time Bristol winner who’s starting to get hot at Thunder Valley. In the Next Gen, Logano got off to a rough start here with five straight results of 22nd or worse but over the last two, he’s finished in the top ten with a 6.5 average finish. Prior to the last two races, you actually have to go back to spring 2019 to find his next most recent top ten. Over the Next Gen era at Bristol, Logano ranks 16th for Driver Rating, 23rd for Speed and has a 21.0 average finish. Heading into the weekend, I would view him as a risky top ten contender.
Bristol Raceway History – Joey Logano has a lot of bad results at Bristol, but he’s typically run well despite what you’ll see in the results column. This spring, Logano had a strong showing. In the race, Logano started 20th, finished 8th in Stage #2 and then finished 7th overall. Additionally, Logano had the 8th best average running position (10.5), the 9th best Driver Rating and then ranked 9th for Speed. Last summer, Logano had his first Bristol top ten since 2019 and finished 5th. In the race, Logano started 22nd, had a 16.2 average running position, finished Stage #2 around 16th, ran well over the last Stage and then finished 5th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Logano ranked 14th. Last spring, Logano was just a complete non-factor and finished 24th. Additionally, Logano had a 27.6 average running position and ranked 25th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In summer 2024, Logano was a top ten contender but finished an asterisk mark 28th. In the race, Logano started 20th, finished about 14th in Stage #1, was up to 12th on lap 243 but then that lap he spun and hit the wall which wounded the #22. Over the first two segments which were incident free, Logano ranked 14th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In spring 2024’s high-tire wear race, Logano struggled en route to a 22nd. In 2023, Logano struggled and crashed, finishing 34th. In 2022, Logano had multiple problems, but “Performance Wise” he was a top five contender.

William Byron
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – At Bristol, I would look for William Byron to be solid. Byron was flagrantly uncompetitive this spring, but he ran well in both 2025 races and in 5 of the last 8 races, he’s finished in the top 12. Overall in the Next Gen era, Byron ranks 11th across the board in terms of average finish (16.0), Speed and Driver Rating. I’ll also note, Byron’s never led a lap here. Heading into the weekend, I would view him as a top ten performer.
Bristol Raceway History – William Byron has performed at a high-level in many of the recent Bristol races and since 2021 minus spring 2024 (crash) and this spring, Byron has an 8.3 average finish. This spring, Byron started in the rear of the field due to changing his steering rack and then in the race, the #24 never ran well and got lapped multiple times under green. It’s very safe to say the #24 just wasn’t right, so don’t read too much into his 30th. Additionally, Byron had a 33.0 average running position and ranked 29th for Total Speed Rankings. Last summer in the extreme tire wear race, Byron finished 12th, had a 13th place average running position and had the 17th best Speed Ranking. I’ll also note, Byron’s race wasn’t incident free and on lap 383 when Hamlin lost a wheel, Byron ran into the back of him (back in the 20’s at the time). Last spring, Byron had a 12.2 average running position, had the 9th best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 6th overall. In 2024, Byron just wasn’t at his best here. In summer 2024, Byron started 3rd, finished 5th in Stage #1, finished about 11th in Stage #2 and then finished 17th. In the race, Byron’s Total Speed Ranking was the 13th best but over the segments his speed rankings were 5th, 10th, 13th and then 26th. In spring 2024’s high tire wear race, Byron finished 35th but you can disregard that result. On lap 21 while running in 14th, Byron got into the wall hard and broke his toe link. Over the three races prior to that, Byron had results of 9th, 3rd and 3rd.

Tyler Reddick
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – Bristol hasn’t historically been a bright spot on Tyler Reddick’s resume. His career average finish is 17.9 and only twice over his ten starts has he cracked the top ten. That said, he did this spring and finished 4th, and fantasy racing is largely about “What have you done lately.” Outside of this spring, Reddick’s other six Next Gen results are 15th or worse and overall in the Next Gen era he ranks 15th for average finish (18.1) and then 18th for both Speed and Driver Rating. Heading into the weekend, I would view Reddick as a top ten performer.
Bristol Raceway History – This spring at Bristol, Tyler Reddick was strong. In the race, Reddick started 2nd, didn’t place in the two opening Stages, had an 11.6 average running position, earned the 9th best Driver Rating and then finished 4th overall. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Reddick ranked 8th. Last summer, Reddick finished 15th, had the 15th best Total Speed Ranking and had an 18.4 average running position. Last spring, Reddick started 27th, finished about 15th in Stage #1, finished 10th in Stage #2, had a 13.2 average running position, ranked 16th in terms of Total Speed Rankings and then finished 18th. Reddick used some out of sync pit strategy during the final pit cycle and I would say that ultimately burned him since no caution materialized. Over the segments, Reddick had speed rankings of 12th, 11th, 13th and then 28th. In summer 2024, Reddick was simply mid-pack, finishing 20th, had the 19th best Total Speed Ranking and had an 18.9 average running position. In spring 2024, Reddick finished 30th but I would urge you to have no real takeaways. In the race, Reddick started 23rd, was up to 20th on lap 20 before the first caution came out but then during the first caution, Reddick chose not to pit which got him the lead and then just after the restart, Reddick was wrecked. In the two races prior to that, Reddick had results of 15th and 25th.

Bubba Wallace
Bristol Fantasy Outlook – At Bristol, look for Bubba Wallace to run well and be a top ten contender despite the fact he’s only finished in the top ten twice over his 14 starts. Wallace was solid this spring en route to an 11th, he was a top ten contender last summer and then in summer 2024, he was one of the best and finished 3rd. In the Next Gen era at Thunder Valley, Wallace ranks 7th for Speed, 10th for Driver Rating and has a 19.9 average finish which greatly underrates him.
Bristol Raceway History – Bubba Wallace has run better than what the results column will show you at Bristol. This spring, Wallace finished 9th in the two opening Stages, had a 9.5 average running position, earned the 7th best Driver Rating, had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 11th overall. Last summer, Wallace ran well but finished an asterisk mark 34th. In the race, Wallace started 8th, finished 4th in Stage #1, finished 8th in Stage #2 but then in the last Stage his evening unraveled. On lap 351, Wallace was in 11th, on lap 352 he was rapidly falling back in the running order and then on lap 354 while he was back to 21st, he slammed into Stenhouse. Then later in the last Stage on lap 487 while running in the low 20’s, Wallace slammed into the wall after contact. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Wallace ranked 10th. Last spring, Wallace finished 19th, had the 18th best Total Speed Ranking and had a 14.8 average running position. In summer 2024, Wallace was stout. In the race, Wallace finished 10th in Stage #1, finished 6th in Stage #2, earned the 6th best Driver Rating, had a 6.8 average running position and then finished 3rd when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed stats, Wallace ranked 5th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2024’s high tire wear race, Wallace finished 29th but he definitely ran better than his result. Wallace led 15 laps via pit strategy and had a 15.4 average running position. I’m pretty certain he had a tire issue late in the race. In 2023, Wallace finished 14th. In 2022, Wallace looked like a top five contender but finished an asterisk mark 29th. On lap 176 while running in 4th, Wallace went to the garage due to power steering problems.

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