Las Vegas South Point 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

John H Nemechek
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – John H Nemechek is 6 for 7 at finishing in the 20’s at Las Vegas for his career, so it’s likely wise to expect another not-so-great performance. This year at high-speed 1.5’s, Nemechek has a 21.0 average finish, ranks 21st for Speed but take note he’s fresh off a 13th at Kansas.
Las Vegas History – At Las Vegas in the Next Gen, Nemechek has finished in the twenties 80% of the time, has a 20.2 average finish and ranks 28th for both Speed and Driver Rating. This spring, Nemechek finished 21st, had a 24.9 average running position and ranked 23rd for Speed.  Last fall, Nemechek finished 29th, had a 25.3 average running position and ranked 28th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Nemechek finished 20th, had a 24.1 average running position and ranked 28th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In fall 2024, a miracle happened and JHN finished 9th. I know it’s sounds crazy, but that finish is pretty legit, but I’ll also note he was a hyper mileage driver, just not to the Joey Logano extent. In the race, Nemechek started 26th, finished around 14th in Stage #2, was in 13th on lap 226 before the final Green Flag pit cycle and then he stretched his fuel to the finish en route to a 9th. Additionally, Nemechek earned the 16th best Driver Rating and had an 18th place average running position. In spring 2024, Nemechek finished 22nd. Back in 2020 in his old #38, Nemechek had finishes of 20th and 24th.

Todd Gilliland
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – The odds are low that Todd Gilliland will have a good afternoon at Las Vegas. He hasn’t run well here and in the Next Gen he’s finished between 21st to 34th every race, has a 27.2 average finish and ranks 34th for Speed. This year at high-speed 1.5’s, Gilliland has finished between 16th to 20th in 4 of the last 5 races and over that stretch minus Texas his average finish is 18th.
Las Vegas History – In the Next Gen at Las Vegas, Todd Gilliland ranks 31st for average finish (27.2), 31st for Driver Rating and then 34th for Speed. In terms of the results column, his best finish is a 21st but in 3 of the last 4 he’s finished 29th or worse. This spring, Gilliland finished 34th, had a 32nd place average running position and ranked 29th for Speed. I’ll note, Gilliland was caught speeding during green flag pit stops in Stage #2, but just prior to that he was off the lead lap anyways and running in 29th. Last fall, Gilliland had his best Las Vegas finish but it’s hard to get excited about a 21st. Additionally, Gilliland had a 28.3 average running position and ranked 33rd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Gilliland finished 29th but you can get out an asterisk mark for that result. In the race, Gilliland started 32nd, finished about 17th in Stage #1 but then in Stage #2 on lap 147 while battling for 14th, he got into the wall. In 2024, Gilliland finished 31st in the fall and then finished 24th in the spring.

Austin Dillon
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – Austin Dillon has been semi-respectable at Las Vegas and in 7 of the last 11 races, he’s finished between 10th to 18th and included in that tally is a 12th this spring, so he might be worth a look if you’re looking to roll the dice. That said, I think the smart play is to just view him as a mid-pack driver who might have upside. This year at high-speed 1.5’s, Dillon has a 20.5 average finish and ranks 25th for Speed.
Las Vegas History – At Las Vegas in the Next Gen, Austin Dillon ranks 22nd for average finish (20.9), 23rd for Driver Rating and then 25th for Speed. This spring, Dillon had a solid showing and finished 12th. Additionally, Dillon had a 15.9 average running position and ranked 19th for Speed. Over the three races prior to that, Dillon went 3 for 3 at crashing and finishing 25th or worse. Last fall, Dillon looked poised to have a respectable afternoon, but his race wasn’t incident free. In the race, Dillon started 25th, finished about 20th in Stage #1, finished about 15th in Stage #2, was up to 11th on lap 230 but then shortly after that on lap 243 during a restart, he was involved in a crash, leading to his 25th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Dillon ranked 23rd but take note his speed over the segments were 26th, 19th, 15th and then 32nd. Last spring, Dillon might’ve been about high-teens good, but finished 32nd. On lap 191, Dillon was running in 18th but then a few laps later he was caught up in an accident. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Dillon ranked 27th but take note his speed over the segments were 20th, 15th, 32nd and then 29th. In fall 2024, Dillon started 13th, was off the lead lap in 26th on lap 61 but then on lap 63, he crashed after contact with Hemric which led to his 37th. In spring 2024, Dillon finished 16th. In 2023, Dillon had not so great results of 18th and 27th. Over the four races prior to that, Dillon had finishes of 10th, 11th, 13th and 12th.

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