Las Vegas South Point 400 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Denny Hamlin
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – Denny Hamlin has back-to-back Las Vegas wins and on Sunday, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he gets a three-peat in the South Point 400. Hamlin’s performed at a super-elite level at Las Vegas and he’s been the premiere performer at high-speed 1.5’s in 2026. This year at high-speed 1.5’s, Hamlin has the best average finish (2.7) and the best Track Type Total Speed Ranking (1.7). At Las Vegas, Hamlin’s a 3-time winner and since 2021 minus spring 2022 and spring 2025, Hamlin has a 5.4 average finish. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Las Vegas History – Denny Hamlin has been one of the best at Las Vegas and in the Next Gen, Hamlin’s won the last two races, has the 3rd best Driver Rating, has the 5th best average finish (11.2) and ranks 6th for Speed. This spring, Hamlin was the class of the field and raced his way to victory lane, despite getting a speeding penalty. In the race, Hamlin started 2nd, finished 3rd in Stage #1, was caught speeding during the Stage #1 caution, rebounded to finish 5th in Stage #2, led 134 laps and then of course raced his way to victory lane. In terms of Speed Stats, Hamlin was tied for having the best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run. Last fall, Hamlin came up clutch and raced his way to victory lane in game 7 fashion, racing his way from 6th to 1st over the last little green flag run. In the race, Hamlin had a 4.8 average running position, led 9 laps and earned the 2nd best Driver Rating. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Hamlin ranked 2nd. Last spring, Hamlin looked off early and also got a speeding penalty in the first Stage, but he rebounded in the second half and logged some laps in the top five in the last Stage. Then in the last Stage, Hamlin pitted early during a round of green flag pit stops and was then burned by a caution during the pit cycle which doomed him to his 25th. Over the five races prior to that, Hamlin had results of 8th, 8th, 10th, 11th and 5th.

Kyle Larson
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – Kyle Larson’s a super-elite performer at Las Vegas and on Sunday in the South Point 400, look for the #5 to be fast and for Larson to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. In the Next Gen, Larson’s won twice, he’s finished in the top 2 55.5% of the time and ranks #1 for Speed, Average Finish (7.8) and then 2nd for Driver Rating. This year at high-speed 1.5’s, Larson’s fresh off a dominant performance at Kansas, ranks 8th for Speed and has a 3.8 average finish minus Texas and Chicagoland.
Las Vegas History – Kyle Larson’s a 3-time Las Vegas winner and in the Next Gen, Larson ranks #1 for Speed and has a 4.4 incident free average finish. This spring, Larson had a stellar showing. In the race, Larson finished 2nd in the two Opening Stages, had a 3.8 average running position, led 62 laps and then finished 7th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 5th with his speed over the segments being 4th, 1st, 9th and 9th, so he simply wasn’t at his best in the second half of the race. Last year, Larson was the class of the field in both races, going 2 for 2 at having the best Total Speed Ranking but his average finish was 5.5. Last fall, Larson had the field covered but late mayhem robbed him of the win. In the race, Larson finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led the most laps (129), had the best average running position (2.9), earned the best Driver Rating and was the leader prior to all the late mayhem that ensued. In terms of speed stats, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Last spring, Larson may have very well had the best car, but finished an asterisk mark 9th after some final Stage pit strategy shuffled him from the lead back to the mid-teens. In the race, Larson won Stage #2, led the most laps (61), had the 2nd best average running position (7.6) and earned the 2nd best Driver Rating. In terms of speed stats, Larson ranked #1 for Total Speed Rankings and Speed Late In A Run.

William Byron
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – Look for William Byron to be a top five contender. At Las Vegas in the Next Gen, Byron ranks among the best and he’s also been strong at high-speed 1.5’s in 2026. At Las Vegas in the Next Gen, Byron ranks 2nd for Speed and minus last fall where Ty Dillon couldn’t be bothered to wave his hand out the window his average finish is 5.9. In 3 of the last 4 Vegas races, Byron’s finished in either 3rd or 4th with last fall of course being the outlier. This year at high-speed 1.5’s, Byron has the 2nd best average finish (6.3) and ranks 4th for Speed.
Las Vegas History – William Byron is a semi-recent winner (spring 2023) who’s performed at an elite level. Over the combined Next Gen era races, Byron has the best Driver Rating, ranks 2nd for Speed and then 3rd for average finish (9.2). This spring, Byron had a rocket. In the race, Byron finished 3rd, had a 4.7 average running position, earned the 3rd best Driver Rating and ranked 3rd for Total Speed Rankings. Last fall, I would argue Byron was the 2nd best but late in the race, Ty Dillon crashed Byron as he was coming to pit road. In the race, Byron won Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking, led 55 laps but finished an asterisk mark 36th after getting wrecked while running in 2nd on lap 235. Last spring, Byron had one of the best cars. In the race, Byron finished 2nd in Stage #2, had the best average running position (7.5), earned the 2nd best driver rating and then finished 4th overall. Pit strategy hurt Byron in the last Stage and dropped him outside the top ten, so he had to rally hard to finish 4th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Byron ranked 2nd. In fall 2024, Byron was stout, and I would rank him as subjectively being the 2nd best. In the race, Byron earned the 2nd best Driver Rating, had the 2nd best Average Running Position (6.6), had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 4th overall. Over the three races prior to that, Byron had finishes of 10th, 7th and 1st.

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