Las Vegas South Point 400 Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images

On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Las Vegas for the South Point 400 for race #5 of the Chase. Las Vegas is a high-speed 1.5-mile track with variable banking and moderate tire wear. This will be the 7th high-speed 1.5-mile track visited in 2026, so make sure you look back to those races which have correlation (2026 High-Speed 1.5-Mile Track Average Finishes, 2026 High-Speed 1.5-Mile Track Total Speed Rankings).

On Saturday, practice was held for Las Vegas. Teams had 50 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agendas. Make sure you check out our Las Vegas Practice Notes, Las Vegas 10,15 and 20 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet and Las Vegas Practice Speeds and 10-Lap Averages. 

Here’s Las Vegas Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.

Las Vegas Full Field Fantasy Rankings

1) Denny Hamlin
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – Denny Hamlin has back-to-back Las Vegas wins and on Sunday in the South Point 400, the road to victory lane might very well go thru him. Hamlin’s performed at a super-elite level at Las Vegas and he’s been the premiere performer at high-speed 1.5’s in 2026. This year at high-speed 1.5’s, Hamlin has the best Track Type Total Speed Ranking (1.7), the best Driver Rating, the best average finish (2.7) and he’s had a result in the top 4 every race. Over the last three races, he’s finished in exactly 3rd. In the Next Gen at Las Vegas, Hamlin has the 3rd best Driver Rating, the 5th best average finish (11.2) and ranks 6th for Speed. This spring, Hamlin was the class of the field and raced his way to victory lane, despite getting a speeding penalty. In the race, Hamlin started 2nd, finished 3rd in Stage #1, was caught speeding during the Stage #1 caution, rebounded to finish 5th in Stage #2, led 134 laps and then of course raced his way to victory lane. In terms of Speed Stats, Hamlin was tied for having the best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run. Last fall, Hamlin came up clutch and raced his way to victory lane in game 7 fashion, racing his way from 6th to 1st over the last little green flag run. In the race, Hamlin had a 4.8 average running position, led 9 laps and earned the 2nd best Driver Rating. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Hamlin ranked 2nd. In practice, Hamlin was happy with his car and liked it’s characteristics.
DraftKings $11,000/ FanDuel $14,000

Further Recommended Reading = Las Vegas Finish Projections, DraftKings Las Vegas Scoring Projections, FanDuel Las Vegas Scoring Projections, Las Vegas Quick Rankings

2) Kyle Larson
Start 6th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – Kyle Larson’s a super-elite performer at Las Vegas and on Sunday in the South Point 400, look for Larson to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. Larson’s fresh off a dominant win at Kansas and he ranks among the premiere performers at Las Vegas. At “Sin City” in the Next Gen, Larson’s finished in the top 2 55.5% of the time and ranks #1 for Speed, Average Finish (7.8) and then 2nd for Driver Rating. Over his Next Gen incident free races, Larson has a 4.4 average finish. This spring, Larson had a stellar showing. In the race, Larson finished 2nd in the two Opening Stages, had a 3.8 average running position, led 62 laps and then finished 7th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 5th with his speed over the segments being 4th, 1st, 9th and 9th, so he simply wasn’t at his best in the second half of the race. Last year, Larson was the class of the field in both races, going 2 for 2 at having the best Total Speed Ranking but his average finish was 5.5. Last fall, Larson had the field covered but late mayhem robbed him of the win. In the race, Larson finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led the most laps (129), had the best average running position (2.9), earned the best Driver Rating and was the leader prior to all the late mayhem that ensued. In terms of speed stats, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Last spring, Larson may have very well had the best car but finished an asterisk mark 9th after some final Stage pit strategy shuffled him from the lead back to the mid-teens. In the race, Larson won Stage #2, led the most laps (61), had the 2nd best average running position (7.6) and earned the 2nd best Driver Rating. In terms of speed stats, Larson ranked #1 for Total Speed Rankings and Speed Late In A Run. This year at high-speed 1.5’s, Larson’s fresh off a dominant performance at Kansas, ranks 8th for Speed and has a 3.8 average finish minus Texas and Chicagoland. In practice, Larson had the best 10-lap average and said his team made improvements throughout practice.
DraftKings $11,500/ FanDuel $13,500

3) Chase Briscoe
Start 4th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Las Vegas Fantasy Outlook – Look for Chase Briscoe to be a factor at Las Vegas. Briscoe’s overall track record is pretty bad, but he’s run great over the last two with a 6.0 average finish. This spring, Briscoe didn’t have an incident free race but rallied hard and finished 8th. In the race, Briscoe started 18th, was up to 13th on lap 30 but then in the lap 30’s during the opening green flag pit stop, he was caught speeding on pit road. That put him behind for almost the entire afternoon but once he got back on the lead lap, he rallied back to finish 8th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, he ranked 10th with his speed over the segments being 11th, 17th, 3rd and 8th. Last fall, Briscoe led the 2nd most laps (57), had the 3rd best average running position (4.9), earned the 4th best Driver Rating and ranked 5th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring early in his JGR tenure, Briscoe started 24th but his race went downhill early and during the opening Green Flag pit cycle, he lost a wheel which brought out the first caution. That penalty dropped him off the lead lap and put him behind for the rest of the afternoon, leading to his 17th. This year at high-speed 1.5’s, Briscoe has a 2.5 average finish over the last two and a 5.0 average Speed Ranking over the last three. Just last week at Kansas, he was impressive and finished 3rd. In practice, Briscoe was fast and felt like his car was just an adjustment away from being really good. In practice, Briscoe had the 2nd best 10-lap average and the 4th best 15-lap average.
DraftKings $9,900/ FanDuel $12,500

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