Charlotte Bank of America 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Ross Chastain
Charlotte Fantasy Outlook – Ross Chastain won the 2025 Charlotte Coca Cola 600 from the back, but fantasy racing is all about, “what have you done lately” and he’s been mediocre at high speed 1.5’s this year. This year at high-speed 1.5’s, Chastain has a 23.9 average finish and ranks 26th for Speed. On Sunday, I would just view him as slightly better than mid-pack.
Charlotte History – At Charlotte in the Next Gen, Ross Chastain ranks 6th for Driver Rating, 12th for Speed and has the 12th best average finish (16.2). This spring, Chastain looked like a teen’s performer but finished an asterisk mark 35th after crashing. In the race, Chastain started 27th, finished Stage #3 in 15th but then on lap 317 while running in 17th, he crashed hard, leading to his poor result. In segment #3 which was his last incident free portion of the race, he ranked 17th for Speed. Last year, Chastain started in the rear of the field in a backup car, finished about 21st in Stage #1, finished 7th in Stage #2, finished 5th in Stage #3 and then passed William Byron for the win with 5-laps to go. In terms of speed stats, Chastain ranked 5th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 13th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2024, Chastain finished 8th, had the 8th best Total Speed Ranking, earned the 8th best Driver Rating and had a 9.1 average running position. In 2023, Chastain finished 9th in Stage #2 but then in Stage #3 he had contact on pit road while running in the top ten and he just didn’t seem to be as good after that. When the checkered flag waved, Chastain finished 22nd, had an 18.6 average running position and had the 26th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2022, Chastain was a standout performer. In the race, Chastain won Stage #3, had a race best 4.4 average running position, led a race high 153 laps but then finished an asterisk mark 15th after getting caught up in “Overtime Carnage”. On lap 391 before late mayhem ensued, Chastain was running in 3rd. In terms of speed stats, Chastain ranked #1 for Speed Late In A Run and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking.

Riley Herbst
Charlotte Fantasy Outlook – Riley Herbst has often looked at his best at high-speed 1.5’s in 2026 and for the season at these venues he ranks 16th for average finish (17.4) and 19th for Speed. At Charlotte in the Next Gen, Herbst is 2 for 2 at finishing in the 20’s with a 24.5 average finish and a 30.0 average Speed Ranking. On Sunday, I would view him as a 20’s driver who’ll have marginal upside.
Charlotte History – This spring at Charlotte, Herbst had a low 20’s evening. In the race, Herbst finished 21st, had a 24.7 average running position and ranked 28th for Speed. In 2025, Herbst finished 28th, had a 33.1 average running position and ranked 32nd for Total Speed Rankings. I’ll note, Herbst did spin out coming to pit road in Stage #2 on lap 157, but he was back in the low 30’s when it happened anyways, so I can’t say it hurt him too much.

Zane Smith
Charlotte Fantasy Outlook – At Charlotte, Zane Smith has a 50% top ten finish rate but in the other 50% he’s finished 33rd or worse, so he’s very much so been a hero or zero. This year at high-speed 1.5’s, he’s shown potential on occasion and that includes a strong showing at Charlotte this spring (10th). For the season at these venues, Smith has a 24.7 average finish and ranks 31st for Speed. Over the last three he’s finished 28th or worse. Even though he’s never had a mid-pack result here, that’s what I expect from him and the #38 crew on Sunday.
Charlotte History – Zane Smith has been a hero or zero at Charlotte over his four starts with two top tens and then two results in the 30’s. This spring, Smith legit ran well and finished 10th. In the race, Smith had a 14.5 average running position, ranked 15th for Total Speed Rankings and then finished 10th overall. Last year, Smith had a short evening and finished 39th. On lap 237 while running in 20th, Smith crashed. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Smith ranked 15th, ranking 15th over all three segments he competed. In 2024, Smith finished 33rd. Additionally, Smith had a 30.2 average running position and ranked 35th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2023 in the #38, Smith started 29th and then finished 10th. Do yourself a favor and don’t read into that result too much. It was a high attrition race, and he used pit strategy around lap 360 which got him the lead. That said, Smith was actually respectable over the second half of the race. For the afternoon, Smith had the 22nd best Total Speed Ranking.

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