Sonoma Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings
William Byron
Sonoma Fantasy Spin – At Sonoma, William Byron has a horrendous track record, but don’t be surprised if he’s a contender. Byron’s a strong road course racer, and he’s been a factor here in the past. This spring at COTA in the Next Gen’s road course racing debut, Byron finished 12th and had the 12th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2021 at road courses, Byron had a ton of misleading results, but “Performance Wise” he was a consistent top ten contender. I’ll note, Byron’s in a slump, and that’s why I have him in this post. Since winning at Martinsville back in early April, Byron has a seven race streak of finishing outside the top ten. On Sunday, I would view Byron as a top ten contender who has upside if he can avoid problems which have often haunted him on this track type, and in recent 2022 races.
Sonoma Track History – Don’t look at William Byron’s results at Sonoma! Over his three starts he’s 3 for 3 at finishing 19th or worse, and his average finish is 26.3. Last year, Byron was a top ten contender, but finished a clunker 35th after being involved in a late crash. In the race, Byron finished 6th in Stage #2, led 5 laps and had the 10th best Total Speed Ranking. On lap 76 which was two laps prior to his demise he was running in 13th. In 2019 when the series next most recently raced here, Byron looked great, but finished an asterisk mark 19th. In the race, Byron led 21 laps, won Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2 and had the 10th best Total Speed Ranking. In the first three segments of the race he had speed rankings of 1,8 and 12, but then in the final Stage he pitted earlier then others which really hurt him since he was on old tires at the end. In that segment his speed ranking was 20th, and with about 10 to go he was battling for 13th before his steep decline.
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Erik Jones
Sonoma Fantasy Spin – Erik Jones has been strong at Sonoma, and he even ran well last year in the #43 and finished 11th. Over the eight combined races at road courses since 2021, Jones has a 15.0 average finish and a 14.1 average running position. This spring at COTA in the Next Gen’s road course debut, Jones finished 9th, despite starting way back in 30th. On Sunday, I would feel comfortable viewing Jones as a teen’s performer.
Sonoma Track History – Erik Jones has had success at Sonoma and over the last three races, he’s finished between 7th to 11th and his 8.7 average finish ranks as the 6th best. Last year when the series made it’s return, Jones had a solid showing in the #43. In the race he finished 10th in Stage #1, 11th overall, had a 15.4 average running position and was the 17th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In 2019 at Sonoma, Jones started way back in 32nd but came home 8th. In the race his primary strength was being fast over long runs and in that discipline he ranked as the 4th best. In 2018, Jones was strong. When the checkered flag waved he finished 7th. Additionally, he earned the 11th best driver rating and had a 14th place average running position.
Michael McDowell
Sonoma Fantasy Spin – Michael McDowell and the #34 team have been clicking off good results, so don’t overlook him at Sonoma. McDowell’s track record is nothing to get excited about (pretty bad), but he was poised to finish well last year until Suarez spun him at the end. This year at COTA in the Next Gen’s road course racing debut, McDowell finished 13th and in the final segment, the #34 car was the 11th fastest car on the track. Last year at road courses, McDowell started the season strong, but then things went downhill. In 2021, McDowell had top tens in the first two races (8th-Daytona RC, 7th-COTA), but then over the next five he had a best finish of 16th and a 25.0 average finish. On Sunday, I think McDowell has teens potential.
Sonoma Track History – Sonoma has been pretty brutal to Michael McDowell in the results column. He finished 14th in 2017, but all other 8 of his finishes are 21st or worse. Last year, McDowell was running in 9th at the start of the final lap, but then he had a run-in with Daniel Suarez which drop kicked him to a 28th place finish. In the race, McDowell had the 15th best Total Speed Ranking, a 15.8 average running position, was the 11th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and was running in 16th on lap 76 which was before the late wildness really started. In his three Sonoma starts prior to that he had finishes of 25th, 21st and 14th.
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