Sonoma Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks
Kyle Busch
Sonoma Fantasy Spin – Kyle Busch is a super-elite performer at Sonoma who should be on your short list of favorites. He’s one of the best road course racers in NASCAR, and he’s consistently finished near the front at Sonoma. At Non-Roval road courses since 2018 minus this year’s COTA race where he had problems, Busch has a 5.4 average finish and a worst result of 11th. One attribute you have to love about Kyle Busch is how well the #18 team is running. Their contending for wins nearly every week and since Bristol Dirt minus Darlington where he crashed, Busch has a 3.0 average finish. On Sunday, look for Busch to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Sonoma Track History – Kyle Busch is a two-time winner at Sonoma who’s performed at a super-elite level. Since 2015 at this worn-out west coast track, Busch has a series best 4.2 average finish and he’s had a result in the top 7 every race. Last year when the series made its return, Busch had a strong showing. In the race he started 5th, finished 3rd in Stage #1, 7th in Stage #2, had a 7.5 average running position and then finished 5th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed analytics, Busch was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and his Total Speed Ranking was the 3rd best. In 2019 in the next most recent race, Busch had a great car and finished 2nd. In terms of speed analytics, Busch had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking, was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 2nd best Green Flag Average Speed. Over the final quarter of the race, Busch had the fastest car on the track. In 2018, Busch had a strong showing. He finished 5th, earned the 5th best driver rating and had a 9th place average running position. In the three Sonoma races prior to that, Busch had results of 5th, 7th and 1st.
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Chase Elliott
Sonoma Fantasy Spin – Chase Elliott is the road course king and at Sonoma, there’s no question he’ll be tough to beat. Victory lane has eluded Elliott at this west coast track, but he’s come close and finished runner-up last year. At road courses, Elliott is a 7-time winner and since 2018 minus Sonoma 2019 (engine blew up whlile running in 3rd), Daytona RC 2021 (walking away with the win until the rain caution) and last year’s race at the Charlotte Roval (Harvick wrecked him), Elliott has a 2.2 average finish. This spring at COTA in the Next Gen’s road course debut, the #9 car really came to life at the end and when the checkered flag waved he finished 4th.
Sonoma Track History – Chase Elliott has never won at Sonoma, but there’s no question he’ll be a factor. He’s performed at a high-level and since 2017 minus 2019 where he had engine problems, Elliott has a 4.7 average finish and he’s had a result in the top 8 every race. Last year when the series made it’s return, Elliott ran a great race. In the event he started 2nd, finished 2nd in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, had a 4.8 average running position, led 13 laps and then finished 2nd when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed analytics, Elliott had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and was the 8th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In 2019, Elliott had a great car but came home a clunker 37th. In the race, Elliott’s engine blew up while he was running in 3rd. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Elliott ranked as the 3rd best overall and in the three segments he competed he had speed rankings of 7th, 3rd and 3rd. In 2018, Elliott finished 4th and had a 6th place average running position. In 2017, Elliott finished 8th and earned the 10th best driver rating.
Ross Chastain
Sonoma Fantasy Spin – At Sonoma, look for Ross Chastain to be fast and be a factor. Chastain had a strong showing last year at Sonoma, and then when you factor in how much better he’s performing this year on a weekly basis, then I think it’s clear he’s primed to have a strong showing. This spring at COTA in the Next Gen’s road course racing debut, Chastain finished 1st, earned the best driver rating, led the most laps (31), ran the most fastest laps and had the best Total Speed Ranking. Overall since 2021 at non-roval road courses, Chastain’s 6.2 average finish ranks as the 2nd best in the series.
Sonoma Track History – Last year at Sonoma, Ross Chastain ran well and finished 7th. Additionally, Chastain had a 14.2 average running position, had the 14th best Total Speed Ranking and was the 6th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. I’ll note, late in the race Chastain was spun in turn 11, but he used that to his advantage and passed a handful of cars driving where he shouldn’t have. On lap 76 which was two laps before he spun he was running in 11th. In 2019 in his one other start he finished 33rd, but I wouldn’t read into that since he wasn’t in a competitive situation.
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Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions >The Low Tier