Sonoma Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions
Justin Haley
Sonoma Fantasy Spin – At Sonoma, I think Justin Haley has high-teens potential. The #31 team has frequently finished around that range, and this spring at COTA he finished 15th and had the 17th best Total Speed Ranking.
Sonoma Track History – Justin Haley has a Sonoma start back in 2019 under his belt. In that event he drove the #77 and came home 34th. That’s not a competitive situation, so I wouldn’t read into it too much.
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Bubba Wallace
Sonoma Fantasy Spin – At Sonoma, I don’t expect much from Bubba Wallace. Turning left and right has never been a strength of his, and I would argue Sonoma is perhaps the most technical of the road courses on the circuit. Wallace walked away with an asterisk mark respectable result last year, but if it wasn’t for the wildness of the last couple of laps, that certainly wouldn’t have happened. In his other two starts, he’s finished mid-twenties and back. This spring at COTA in the Next Gen’s Road course racing debut, Wallace lost a wheel and finished 38th. His Total Speed Ranking for the afternoon was 19th. In 2021 at road courses minus COTA where he crashed, Wallace had a 19.0 average finish and a 23.5 average running position. At Sonoma, I think Wallace is a 20’s performer.
Sonoma Track History – Last year at Sonoma when MJ was in attendance, history happened, and Bubba Wallace got his first top 20 finish EVER at a road course. That said, don’t read into Wallace’s 14th too much. Wallace literally got the “Free Pass” to get back on the lead lap with about 10 laps to go. In the race, Wallace had the 29th best Total Speed Ranking, was the 27th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had a 27.3 average running position. I’ll note, Wallace’s race wasn’t incident free. When Wallace pitted right before Stage #1 ended he was caught speeding on pit road, and then in Stage #2 he had a flat tire, limped around the track and then made an unexpected pit stop which dropped him off the lead lap. With 11 laps to go, Wallace was running in 30th. From 2019 at Sonoma, the number you need to know about Wallace is 26. In the race he finished 26th, had a 26.1 average running position, had the 26th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the 26th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In 2018 when he made his track debut, Wallace finished 29th and had a 29.6 average running position.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Sonoma Fantasy Spin – Stenhouse Jr. has been hot lately (top ten in 4 of the last 5 races), but will that momentum carry over to Sonoma? If he does, it’s really a testament to the magic of momentum because he’s never run well before. This spring when COTA was visited during his super slump, Stenhouse had drivetrain problems and finished 37th. Last year at road courses minus Sonoma where he had an engine failure, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. had a 17.2 average finish, a 21.6 average running position and his track type Total Speed Ranking over the combined events was the 26th best. Also, on this track type in 2021, Stenhouse finished between 18th to 22nd in 4 of the 7 races. At Sonoma, I would look for him to likely finish around that range again.
Sonoma Track History – Since 2015 at Sonoma minus 2021 (engine) and 2017 (crash), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is 4 for 4 at finishing between 18th to 26th and his average finish is 21.25. Last year, Stenhouse had a great chance to finish within that range again, but his afternoon wasn’t incident free. On lap 31 while running in 24th, he had a major off-roading moment and damaged his car. His DNF is listed as an engine failure, so I suppose he damaged that too at the time. In the two Sonoma races prior to that, Stenhouse had results of 21st (2019) and 18th (2018).
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