Texas Wurth 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday, get ready for a showdown in the “Lone Star State” for the Texas Wurth 400. Texas is a high-speed 1.5-mile track and in recent races, it’s become one of the most chaotic tracks on the circuit. Last year, five drivers had problems while running in the top 2 and in the final Stage alone, eight cautions came out for on track mayhem.

Texas will be the second high-speed 1.5-mile track visited in 2025, so make sure you look back to Las Vegas (I don’t lump Homestead into this track grouping). Here’s a look at Total Speed Rankings at High-Speed 1.5-Mile Tracks since 2024.

On Saturday, practice was held for Texas. Teams had 25 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agendas. Make sure you check out our Texas Practice Notes, Texas Practice Speeds, Texas Group Speed Rankings and Texas 10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.

Here’s the Texas Wurth 400 Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.

Texas Wurth 400 Full Field Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

1) Kyle Larson
Start 4th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Texas Outlook – Kyle Larson’s a super-elite performer at Texas who’ll be tough to beat in the Wurth 400. Larson’s been a standout performer in the “Lone Star State” and in our member exclusive PROS Rankings, Larson’s ranked #1 in 3 of the last 4 Texas races for subjectively being the strongest. In the Next Gen over the combined Texas races, Larson’s tied for having the best Next Gen Speed Ranking but due to problems in 2 of the 3 races, his average finish is 20.3. Last year, Larson looked like the class of the field, but his afternoon wasn’t incident free. In the race, Larson won Stage #1, led 77 laps (most) but then in Stage #2 while leading under caution, Larson literally lost a wheel, leading to his 21st. If Larson didn’t have that problem, I think he would’ve smoked the field. In 2023, Larson was once again the driver to beat but late mayhem robbed him of the win. In the race, Larson won Stage #2, led 99 laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking but late cautions led to his ultimate demise and on lap 247 while battling for the lead during a restart with Bubba Wallace, he crashed (finished 31st). In the two races prior to that, Larson finished 9th in 2022 and then put on a display of domination in 2021 en route to victory lane. Whenever the series visits high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Larson is typically the driver to beat and since 2024 at these venues minus Kansas #2 2024, Larson has a 3.8 average Speed Ranking. This spring at Las Vegas, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking, led the most laps but finished 9th.
DraftKings $11,000/ FanDuel $14,000

Further Recommended Reading = Texas Finish Projections, DraftKings Texas Scoring Projections, FanDuel Texas Scoring Projections, Texas Quick Rankings, Texas Next Gen Average Finishes, Texas Next Gen Speed Rankings

2) William Byron
Start 2nd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Texas Outlook – William Byron, the 2023 Texas winner will be a top contender in the “Lone Star State.” In the Next Gen at Texas, Byron has the best average finish (3.7), he’s tied for having the best Next Gen Speed Ranking and he’s also one of just three drivers who are 3 for 3 at finishing in the top ten every race. Last year, the #24 was stout and the number you need to know is 3. In the race, Byron finished 3rd, had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and earned the 3rd best Driver Rating. In 2023, Byron didn’t have the best car but that didn’t stop him from reaching victory lane. With 50 laps to go before late wildness kicked into gear, Byron was running in 7th. Late mayhem boosted Byron towards the front and then in the closing laps he came up clutch and passed Bubba Wallace for the win. In terms of speed stats, Byron ranked as the fastest driver late in a run and his Total Speed Ranking was tied for being the 7th best. In 2022, Byron led 42 laps, had a race best 6.7 average running position, had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 7th. In 2021, Byron finished runner-up. At high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Byron’s been elite and since 2024 on this track type, Byron has the best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and the best Average Finish (7.0). At Las Vegas earlier this spring, Byron finished 4th and then ranked 2nd for Driver Rating and Total Speed Rankings. In practice, Byron was happy with his car and his team liked his pace for being in traffic.
DraftKings $10,800/ FanDuel $13,500

3) Denny Hamlin
Start 8th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Texas Outlook – Don’t overlook Denny Hamlin at Texas. Hamlin’s a 3-time Texas winner and in the Next Gen, Hamlin’s tied for having the best Next Gen Speed Ranking, has the best average running position and to make all of that more impressive, he’s yet to have an incident free race. Last year, Hamlin could’ve easily raced his way to victory lane but while he was battling for the lead late, he crashed which led to his 30th. Before a late untimely caution came out and mass mayhem ensued, Hamlin was the leader. In the race, Hamlin had the Fastest Car Late In A Run, had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking, had the 2nd best Average Running Position (7.8), was tied for leading the 3rd most laps (37) and earned the 5th best Driver Rating. In 2023, Hamlin had a great car and finished 5th, despite Ty Gibbs running into him on pit road which did some damage to the #11. I’ll also note before late mayhem kicked into gear, Hamlin looked poised to finish in 3rd. In terms of speed, Hamlin had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In 2022, Hamlin finished 10th but you can get out an asterisk mark for that one. On lap 268 under caution while running in 2nd, William Byron spun him out which dropped him back to 22nd. At high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Hamlin’s one of the premiere performers and since 2024 his Total Speed Ranking ranks as the 3rd best (among drivers who competed in every race). In practice, Hamlin ran the most laps (45) and had good speed over a run.
DraftKings $10,500/ FanDuel $12,500