Michigan FireKeepers Casino 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Michigan Fantasy Outlook – At Michigan, I would look for Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to be mid-pack. He’s largely been mid-pack at high-speed intermediate tracks this year, ranking 20th for Speed and having a 20.3 average finish, and he was mid-pack last year at MIS en route to a 20th.
Michigan Track History – At Michigan, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has a pretty ugly track record and in 10 of the last 12 races he’s finished 18th or worse. In the Next Gen at MIS, Stenhouse ranks 21st for average finish (21.8), 24th for Speed and 27th for Driver Rating. Last year, Stenhouse finished 20th, had a 24th place average running position and ranked 31st for Speed. In 2024, Stenhouse had a 17.5 average running position and then finished 13th. In terms of speed, Stenhouse ranked 15th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 22nd best Total Speed Ranking. At the start of overtime, Stenhouse was in 19th, so the race being extended did help him. In 2023, Stenhouse was a low 20’s performer. In the race, Stenhouse finished 21st, had a 20.8 average running position and ranked 20th for Speed Late In A Run and 25th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Stenhouse was caught up in the early “Competition Caution Restart Big One” which led to his 33rd.

Todd Gilliland
Michigan Fantasy Outlook – Michigan has been an ugly venue for Todd Gilliland so keep expectations low. In the Next Gen at MIS, he’s finished 27th or worse every race, has a 31.3 average finish, ranks 28th for Next Gen Speed Rankings and ranks 31st for Next Gen Driver Ratings. This year at high-speed intermediates, Gilliland has finished in the top 20 in 2 of the last 3 races and that’s highlighted by a 17th at Kansas. In terms of 2026 track type Total Speed Rankings, Gilliland ranks 30th for Speed. Heading into the weekend, I would view him as a 20’s performer and hope for the best.
Michigan Track History – Michigan has been brutal to Todd Gilliland and statistically via his 31.3 average finish, it ranks as his very worst track. Last year, Gilliland had a short race and finished 33rd, with his afternoon coming to abrupt halt when he blew a tire and crashed on lap 146 while running in 17th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Gilliland ranked 20th. In 2024, Gilliland finished 36th but you can of course get out an asterisk mark for that result. In the race, Gilliland had a flat tire on lap 108 while running in 20th and then not much later on lap 116 just after a restart, he was involved in a multi-car crash. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Gilliland ranked 19th. In 2023, Gilliland finished an asterisk mark 29th. Late in the race on lap 192 while running in the mid 20’s, the #38 was shown to be smoking and Gilliland then made an unexpected pit stop which cost him a few positions. In 2022, Gilliland started 37th, was in 36th when the competition caution came out and then during the ensuing restart, he was collected in the “Big One”, but he managed to keep on racing and went on to finish 27th.

Michael McDowell
Michigan Fantasy Outlook – In the Next Gen at Michigan, Michael McDowell is 4 for 4 at finishing 19th or worse, has a 25.3 Next Gen average finish and ranks 32nd in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings. Also at Michigan, McDowell has an all-time best finish of 19th and over the last 13 races he’s finished between 19th to 30th. This year at high-speed intermediates, McDowell recently finished 14th at Charlotte but over the other three he finished 26th or worse and his Track Type Total Speed Ranking this season ranks 33rd. Heading into the weekend, I would just view him as a mid-pack driver with marginal upside.
Michigan Track History – In the Next Gen at Michigan, Michael McDowell ranks 28th for average finish (25.3), 29th for Driver Rating and 32nd for Next Gen Speed Rankings. Last year, McDowell finished 30th. Additionally, McDowell ranked 28th for Total Speed Rankings and had a 19.7 average running position. I’ll note, I do believe his poor result can be attributed to late fuel strategy. Over the last Stage, he slowly faded back, on lap 190 he was in 18th so I’m going to assume he likely pitted or something to explain his poor finish. In 2024, McDowell had his best Michigan performance to date and finished 19th. Additionally, McDowell had a 24.8 average running position and ranked 32nd in terms of Driver Rating. In 2023, McDowell finished 24th and had a 23.3 average running position. In 2022, McDowell was collected in the early “Competition Caution Restart Big One” and limped home to finish 28th.

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