Michigan FireKeepers Casino 400 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Denny Hamlin
Michigan Fantasy Outlook – Defending Michigan winner, Denny Hamlin will be the driver to beat in the Michigan Firekeepers Casino 400. Hamlin’s performed at a super-elite level here, and he’s been the premiere performer at high-speed intermediate tracks. In 2026 at high-speed intermediate tracks, Hamlin has the best Track Type Total Speed Ranking (1.5), the best average finish (2.5), the best Driver Rating and the best average running position (3.9). At Michigan in the Next Gen, Hamlin ranks #1 across the board in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings, Driver Rating and Average Finish (4.0). On Sunday, look for Hamlin to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Michigan Track History – Denny Hamlin is a 3-time winner at Michigan who’s performed at an elite-level. Over the last eight MIS races, Hamlin has 1-win, five results in the top 3, he’s finished in the top ten every race and has a series best 3.9 average finish. Last year, Hamlin raced his way to victory lane while conserving his fuel. In the race, Hamlin started 3rd, finished 3rd in Stage #1, finished 8th in Stage #2, had a 5.5 average running position, led 5 laps, made the pass for the win with 3 laps to go and then raced his way to victory lane. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Hamlin ranked 2nd. In 2024, the #11 was a rocket but while running in 2nd on lap 38, Hamlin spun into the grass and that put him behind for the rest of the afternoon, leading to his 9th. In 2023, Hamlin finished 3rd despite his race not being incident free. In the race, Hamlin started 13th, finished 8th in Stage #1 but then in Stage #2 around lap 105 while running in 5th, Hamlin had trouble getting going again after a pit stop and that dropped him to the back. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin was the fastest driver late in a run and his Total Speed Ranking ranked 2nd. In 2022, Hamlin arguably had the best car but finished 3rd due to his race not being incident free. In the race, Hamlin finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a race best 5.3 average running position, led 38 laps, was running in 2nd on lap 158 but then during the Bell/Chastain caution he was penalized for too many men going over the wall which dropped him back to the high-teens. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin ranked #1 for Speed Late In A Run and was tied for #1 in Total Speed Rankings. Over the four races prior to that, Hamlin had results of 5th, 2nd, 6th and 2nd.

Christopher Bell
Michigan Fantasy Outlook – Look for Christopher Bell to have a strong showing at Michigan and be a factor. Bell has yet to crack the top 10 at MIS but in terms of “Performance” in the Next Gen, I would say he’s 3 for 4 at being top 5 good. This year at high-speed intermediate tracks, Bell ranks 2nd in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings, has the 3rd best Driver Rating and “Performance Wise” he’s been top 6 good every race. At the last two visited, Bell finished 2nd at Charlotte and then at Texas he crashed while leading. If Bell can avoid trouble, look for him to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Michigan Track History – Christopher Bell doesn’t have a track record to get excited about at Michigan, but he hasn’t lacked when it comes to “Performance.” Bell’s had quite a bit of trouble and in the Next Gen, he ranks 12th for Speed, 13th for Driver Rating but his 22.7 average finish ranks as the 22nd best. In terms of the Next Gen results column, Bell has a pair of teen finishes but then in the other two he finished 26th or worse. Last year, Bell just didn’t have a great performance. In the race, Bell finished 16th, had a 17.7 average running position and ranked 18th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. That said, Bell also had some out of sync pit strategy and on lap 106 while running in 2nd, he ducked down pit road for gas and that dropped him off the lead lap. Bell caught a caution shortly after that, but he also never bounced back for whatever reason. In terms of speed by segment, Bell ranked 22nd, 2nd, 27th and 20th. In 2024, Bell was a top five contender but was caught up in a multi-car crash and finished 35th. In the race, Bell started 3rd, had speed rankings of 7th and 6th over the first two segments but then late in Stage #2 while he was back in the mid-teens due to pit strategy cycling him back, Bell was caught up in a restart wreck which led to his poor finish. In 2023, Bell had a hot rod but finished a misleading 13th. In the race, Bell started on the pole, led 1 lap but then on lap 65 while battling for the lead, Bell spun and backed the #20 car into the wall. How he managed to finish 13th with his damaged #20 is truly a miracle, or “Cheating repairs.” In 2022, Bell had a great car that might’ve just been the best, but his race wasn’t incident free. In the race, Bell started 2nd, won Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, led 31 laps but finished an asterisk mark 26th. Bell’s downfall can be traced to lap 158 when he had a run-in with Ross Chastain while battling for 2nd which destroyed the #20. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Bell ranked 6th but take note his speed over the segments were 1st, 2nd, 3rd and then 26th.

Ty Gibbs
Michigan Fantasy Outlook – Ty Gibbs will be a contender in Michigan. Gibbs has performed at an elite level here and he’s been fielding fast #54’s at high-speed intermediates this year. In 2026 on this track type minus Texas where he looked great but was crashed, Gibbs has a 6.7 average finish and a 6.3 average Speed Ranking. At Michigan in the Next Gen, Gibbs ranks 3rd for average finish (6.8), 5th for Driver Rating and then 13th for Total Speed Rankings. Heading into the weekend, look for Gibbs to be a top five contender.
Michigan Track History – Ty Gibbs has been great at Michigan and in the Next Gen, his average finish is 6.8 and he’s 4 for 4 at finishing in the top 11. Over the last two, Gibbs has a pair of 3rd place finishes. Last year en route to his 3rd, Gibbs had a 14.3 average running position and ranked 22nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. That last stats line isn’t impressive, but he was the real deal to close out. In 2024, Gibbs finished 3rd, had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking and had a 12.5 average running position. I’ll note, on lap 190 before overtime, Gibbs was running in 3rd, so his good finish is legit. In 2023, Gibbs started 3rd, finished 3rd in Stage #1, finished about 14th in Stage #2, had a 12.7 average running position and then finished 11th overall. In terms of speed stats, Gibbs ranked 6th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 16th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2022 in his third overall Cup start, Gibbs got his first top ten and finished 10th.

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