Sonoma Toyota / Save Mart 350 Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings

Ross Chastain
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – At Sonoma, Ross Chastain should be considered a quality dark horse option. Chastain’s been great here, but he finished a clunker 24th last year and his 2026 resume certainly isn’t pretty. That said, he did just finish 7th at San Diego and now currently has back-to-back top 10’s for the first time all year heading into the weekend. At Sonoma, Chastain’s finished in the top ten in 4 of the last 5 races and in the Next Gen era he ranks 5th for average finish (11.5), 5th for Driver Rating and 7th for Next Gen Speed Rankings. Since 2025 at road courses, Chastain has the 15th best average finish (18.0) and ranks 16th for Track Type Total Speed Rankings. This year in 2 of the 3 road course races, Chastain’s been a top ten contender.
Sonoma Track History – Ross Chastain has run well at Sonoma and been a factor. In terms of the Next Gen results column, he’s 3 for 4 at finishing between 5th to 10th and his average finish is 11.5. Last year, Chastain finished 24th but that result underrates him. In the race, Chastain had the 8th best average running position (12.5), the 12th best Driver Rating and ranked 11th for Total Speed Rankings. Over the segments he ranked 5th, 15th, 10th and then 18th for Speed, so he just wasn’t at his best when it counted. On lap 95 before late cautions broke out which were to his detriment, Chastain was running in 12th. To close out the race, I’m theorizing he was just eaten alive in the running order by drivers on fresher tires. In 2024, Chastain had a strong showing and raced aggressively on the new Sonoma surface. In the race, Chastain finished 5th, had a 9.9 average running position, ranked 4th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2023, Chastain finished 10th, had an 11.7 average running position and ranked 11th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In the two races prior to that, Chastain had back-to-back 7th’s.

Ryan Preece
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – At Sonoma, look for Ryan Preece to be a low double-digit to mid-teens driver who’ll potentially flirt with a top ten. That baseline level of performance matches up with a typical afternoon for Preece in 2026, and it matches up with his recent road course racing resume. In the Next Gen at Sonoma, Preece ranks 11th for average finish (14.3), 14th for Driver Rating and 16th for Next Gen Speed Rankings. At road courses since 2025, Preece ranks 11th for average finish and 12th for Speed. In the results column minus COTA 2025 his average finish is 12th.
Sonoma Track History – At Sonoma in the Next Gen, Ryan Preece is 3 for 3 at finishing between 12th to 18th and his average finish is 14.3. Last year, Preece was solid, finishing 12th, had the 11th best average running position (13.8) and earned the 10th best Driver Rating. In terms of speed stats, Preece ranked 8th for Total Speed Rankings and then 10th for Speed Late In A Run. In 2024 in the #41, Preece was a high teens performer. In the race, Preece finished 18th, had a 19th place average running position and ranked 21st in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2023, Preece started 22nd, finished 13th and had a 17.1 average running position. In terms of speed stats, Preece ranked 15th for Speed Late In A Run and ranked 18th for Total Speed Rankings.

Bubba Wallace
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – At Sonoma, I would view Bubba Wallace as a teen’s driver who’ll have upside. At road courses, Wallace just finished 2nd at San Diego and overall in 2026, he’s 2 for 3 at finishing in the top 11. Going back to last year in 4 of the last 5 races on this track type, he’s finished in the top 15. All of that said, Sonoma hasn’t been a bright spot on the schedule for him.
Sonoma Track History – At Sonoma in the Next Gen, Wallace hasn’t had a lot of success and over the combined races he ranks 25th for Speed, 27th for Driver Rating and has a 21st place average finish minus a 2022 engine failure. Last year, Wallace finished 26th, had a 24.1 average running position and ranked 18th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In the race, Wallace used out of sync pit strategy and went for Stage points, not pitting before the end of either Stage (3rd and 4th in the Stages). I’ll also note, Wallace spun out early in the last Stage, but he was well back in the field at that time anyways. In 2024, Wallace finished 20th, had a 20.9 average running position, earned the 25th best Driver Rating and ranked 30th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. It simply just wasn’t a good showing. In 2023, Wallace was a mid-pack performer. In the race, Wallace finished 17th, had a 20.8 average running position and ranked 26th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, nobody had a shorter race and Wallace finished last due to an engine failure on lap 10 while running in 26th which led to his 36th.

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