Sonoma Toyota / Save Mart 350 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Shane van Gisbergen
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – Look for Shane van Gisbergen to show up with a fast #97 and be the driver to beat at Sonoma. SVG’s the premiere road course racer in NASCAR and last summer at Sonoma, he put on a display of domination and smoked the field en route to victory lane. At road courses, SVG’s a 7-time winner and since 2025 on this track type, SVG has the best Track Type Total Speed Ranking and minus San Diego his average finish is 1.8.
Sonoma Track History – Last summer at Sonoma, Shane van Gisbergen raced his way to victory lane in dominant fashion. In the race, SVG started on the pole, finished 2nd in Stage #1 despite pitting, won Stage #2 despite pitting, had a 1.2 average running position, led 97 laps and earned the best driver rating. In terms of speed stats, SVG had the best Total Speed Ranking and was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run.

Kyle Larson
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – 2-time Sonoma winner, Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Sonoma and on Sunday, he’ll be one of the top threats to SVG. At Sonoma, Larson’s won 2 of the last 5 races but “Performance Wise”, that number should really be 3 of the last 5. In the Next Gen at Sonoma, Larson ranks 5th for Speed, 7th for Driver Rating and has an 8.0 average finish minus last year. At road courses going back to last year, Larson has finished in the top 6 in 3 of the last 4 races. This year on this track type minus Watkins Glen, he’s 2 for 2 at ranking 4th for Speed.
Sonoma Track History – In the #5 at Sonoma, Kyle Larson has been elite and in 3 of the 5 races he could’ve easily been the winner. Last year, Larson had a tough race and finished 35th. In the race, Larson didn’t seem to like his car and he also had a late spin on lap 106 while running in 20th, which doomed him to an asterisk mark 35th. In terms of “Performance”, I would say Larson was really a teen’s performer. In the race, Larson had the 13th best Total Speed Ranking and had a 16.1 average running position. In 2024, Larson was the class of the field and raced his way to victory lane with relative ease, having to make late passes on McDowell, Buescher and Truex. In the race, Larson started 5th, had the best average running position (5.5), earned the best Driver Rating, led 19 laps and of course raced his way to victory lane. In terms of speed stats, Larson ranked #1 across the board for Total Speed Rankings, Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run. In 2023, Larson was solid but also sort of a letdown given the high expectations. In the race, Larson started 16th, had an 11.1 average running position and then finished 8th. In terms of speed stats, Larson ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run and ranked 11th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Larson likely had the best car, but the #5 team beat themselves with bad pit strategy and then losing a wheel. In the race, Larson started on the pole and led the opening 26 laps winning Stage #1, but then that pit strategy shuffled him deep in the field. When Stage #2 ended, Larson had driven to 13th. Then in the final Stage on lap 82 while running in 8th, Larson lost a wheel bringing out the caution which doomed him to a 15th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 10th but take note his speed over the segments were 1st, 12th, 15th and then 17th. In 2021 en route to victory lane, Larson started on the pole, led 57 laps, earned a near perfect driver rating and had the best Total Speed Ranking.

Tyler Reddick
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – Tyler Reddick is a super-elite road course racer who should be on your radar at Sonoma. Reddick’s a 4-time winner on this track type and he’s run well here in the Next Gen, currently having back-to-back top 8’s (7.0 average finish over the two). In the two races prior to the last two, Reddick had back-to-back races where he had problems while running in the top 4 that led to 30’s, so he hasn’t lacked when it comes to performance. At road courses since 2025, Reddick has the 2nd best average finish (9.1, 5.3 minus San Diego and Mexico City) and ranks 10th in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings.
Sonoma Track History – At Sonoma in the Next Gen, Tyler Reddick ranks 8th in terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings but due to a pair of asterisk mark results the first two races, his average finish is a not so great 20.5. Over the last two, Reddick’s average finish is 7.0. Last year, Reddick had a strong showing. In the race, Reddick finished 6th, earned the 9th best Driver Rating and had the 10th best average running position (13.0). In terms of speed stats, Reddick ranked 8th for Total Speed Rankings and 11th for Speed Late In A Run. In 2024, Reddick ranked among the best. In the race, Reddick finished 8th, had an 8.6 average running position, earned the 7th best Driver Rating and led the most laps (35). In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Reddick ranked 5th. In 2023, Reddick was a top ten performer but finished a misleading 33rd. In the race, Reddick had the 10th best Total Speed Ranking, Ranked, 10th for Speed Late In A Run, finished 6th in Stage #1 but late in the race on lap 96 while running in 4th, Reddick had a flat tire and also got a short cutting the track penalty at the same time which doomed him to his poor result. In 2022, Reddick showed top five potential, but his afternoon wasn’t incident free. On lap 50 he was running in 4th, but then shortly after that he was penalized for speeding on pit road which dropped him to the back. Then early in the Final Stage back in traffic, Bilicki spun, and Reddick had contact and then came to pit road and said something broke. When the checkered flag waved, Reddick finished 35th. Prior to his speeding penalty, Reddick consistently ran around the top five.

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