Sonoma Toyota / Save Mart 350 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Prediction / The Low tier

Austin Dillon
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – At Sonoma, I think Austin Dillon likely has about 20th place upside, and I wouldn’t get more optimistic than that. Dillon finished 21st last year and for his career over his 11 starts his average finish is 19.5. In the Next Gen era, Dillon ranks 19th for average finish (21.8), 19th for Driver Rating and 22nd for Next Gen Speed Rankings.
Sonoma Track History – At Sonoma over his 11 starts, Dillon has a 19.5 average finish and in 8 of the 11 races, he’s finished within a deviation of 4 from 20th, so you should definitely know what to expect. Last year, Dillon had one of his Sonoma status quo afternoons and finished 21st. Additionally, Dillon had a 23.1 average running position, earned the 23rd best Driver Rating and ranked 24th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2024, Dillon had a short afternoon and finished 36th. In the race, Dillon started 16th, finished about 17th in Stage #1, was somehow up to 9th on lap 34 (didn’t pit during a caution shortly before that) and then on lap 35, Josh Berry missed a turn and then Dillon was collected in the turn #11 carnage. I’ll note his short race skews his Total Speed Ranking (9th) but over the first quarter of the race he ranked 19th in terms of speed. In 2023, Dillon finished 19th, had a 20.6 average running position and ranked 22nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In the two races prior to that, Dillon was legit solid and came home with finishes of 11th (2022) and 13th (2021).

Austin Hill
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – At Sonoma, Austin Hill might just have upside after a strong showing at San Diego. That said, I would just view him as a mid-pack driver who’ll have a good amount of upside heading into the weekend.
Sonoma Track History – In the O’Reilly series at Sonoma over his three starts, Austin Hill has an 8.3 average finish, and he’s had a result in the top 12 every race. Last year in the lower series, Hill finished 12th. In his two starts prior to that his finishes were 5th (2024) and 8th (2023).

Christopher Bell
Sonoma Fantasy Outlook – At Sonoma, I’m not expecting a whole lot out of a one-handed Christopher Bell but he still might eek out a good result with a backup driver in the #20. Sonoma’s historically been a good track for him but given his current health situation, I would just write him in as a mid-pack driver and find a better option. At Sonoma in the Next Gen, Bell ranks 8th for Driver Rating, 9th for Speed and has a 7.6 average finish over the last three races.
Sonoma Track History – At Sonoma, Christopher Bell has run well and over the last three races, he’s finished in the top 9 and has a 7.6 average finish. Last summer, Bell had his best Sonoma showing and finished 5th. Additionally, Bell had the 4th best average running position (6.7) and earned the 5th best Driver Rating. In terms of speed stats, Bell ranked 3rd for Speed Late In A Run and had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2024 en route to his 9th, Bell ranked 9th for Speed Late In A Run, ranked 15th for Total Speed Rankings and had a 16.6 average running position. To close out the race, Bell was at his best and over the segments he had speed rankings of 16th, 21st, 12th and 10th. In 2023, Bell finished 9th, had a 6.2 average running position and had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, his average running position is more reflective of his overall performance than his result. In 2022, Bell finished 27th but I’ll note his race wasn’t incident free. Bell was penalized for pitting outside his pit box late in Stage #1, but the more deflating blow was that he was in 14th with 16 to go but then pitted a few laps later hoping to catch a lucky break caution. In terms of Speed Rankings, Bell ranked 20th.

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