New Hampshire Dollar Tree 301 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Riley Herbst
New Hampshire Fantasy Outlook – At New Hampshire, I would expect a mid-pack performance from Riley Herbst. That’s how he stacks up on this track type in 2026 and that’s how he ran in 2025 in his only Magic Mile start. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Herbst is 4 for 4 at finishing between 18th to 24th and has a 20.3 average finish.
New Hampshire History – Last year at New Hampshire in his only Cup race here, Herbst was a low 20’s performer. In the race, Herbst finished 22nd, had a 23.7 average running position and ranked 28th in terms of Total Speed Rankings.

Erik Jones
New Hampshire Fantasy Outlook – At New Hampshire, I think it’s wise to just view Erik Jones as a mid-pack driver. He may very well finish better than that range, but he might also finish worse. Last year he finished worse (28th) but in the two prior to that he finished in the low double-digits (11th and 13th). Overall in the Next Gen at New Hampshire, Jones has a 17.8 average finish, ranks 27th for Driver Rating and then 28th for Speed. Since 2025 at shorter-flat tracks, Jones ranks 22nd for average finish (21.8) and then 27th for Speed.
New Hampshire History – At New Hampshire, Erik Jones has a 17.8 career average finish and in 7 of his 10 starts he’s finished in the top 20. Last year, Jones had one of his worst New Hampshire performances to date and stunk it up en route to finishing 28th. In the race, Jones started 26th, had a 28.5 average running position and ranked 34th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2024, Jones finished 13th but I would say that is wet weather assisted. In the race, Jones started 32nd, had a 21.9 average running position and then finished around 24th at the end of Stage #2. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Jones ranked 21st. In 2023, Jones had his best New Hampshire result in years. In the race, Jones started 30th, had the 30th best Total Speed Ranking, had a 23.8 average running position and then finished 11th. I’ll note, Jones got into the wall and spun on lap 162 while running in 24th and then late in the race on lap 281 while running around the mid-teens he was involved in another incident. With that level of adversity, him finishing that good is pretty shocking. In the two New Hampshire races prior to that, Jones had back-to-back 19th’s.

Noah Gragson
New Hampshire Fantasy Outlook – I don’t think New Hampshire will likely work out well for Noah Gragson. That said, he might have a little bit of upside. His last two shorter-flat track results are 17th and 18th, he ran well last year and he also ran well in 2024 prior to the rain. At New Hampshire in the Next Gen, Gragson has a 25.0 average finish, ranks 25th for Speed and then 30th for Driver Rating.
New Hampshire History – Noah Gragson had a solid showing last year at New Hampshire and finished 16th but over his other two Next Gen races he’s finished 27th or worse. Last year, Gragson started 33rd, had an 18.9 average running position and then finished 16th overall. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, he ranked 18th. In 2024, Gragson was involved in two cautions and finished 27th. On lap 154 at the time of his first, he was running around 20th and his second came later in the rain, so I wouldn’t read too much into that one. At the conclusion of Stage #2 which is a great reference point before the final Stage where things got wild, Gragson finished about 15th. In 2023 on lap 270 while running in 29th, Gragson had a brake rotar failure and crashed which led to his 32nd. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Gragson ranked 31st in terms of speed.

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