Homestead-Miami NASCAR Cup Series Championship Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Riley Herbst
Homestead Fantasy Outlook – Riley Herbst has had some of his better 2026 afternoons at 1.5-mile intermediates in 2026, so there’s some hope for upside. That said, I think it’s also likely best to just pencil him in as a high-teens to mid 20’s driver. For the season at these venues over the combined races, Herbst ranks 16th for average finish (17.5) and 19th for Speed. Over the three visited in the Chase his average finish is 20.3.
Homestead History – Riley Herbst has one Cup start under his belt at Homestead and it wasn’t pretty. Last year, Herbst ranked 29th for Speed, had a 30.4 average running position and then finished 33rd overall.

Michael McDowell
Homestead Fantasy Outlook – At Homestead, I think Michael McDowell will be mid-pack good at best, but it can certainly get worse than that. In the Next Gen at this 1.5, McDowell has an 18.0 average finish, ranks 25th for Driver Rating and then 26th for Speed. This year at 1.5-mile intermediate tracks, McDowell is 7 for 8 at finishing 19th or worse, has a 24.6 average finish and ranks 29th for Speed. Over the last two visited this year, McDowell’s had results of 19th and 21st.
Homestead History – In the Next Gen at Homestead, McDowell is 4 for 4 at finishing between 14th to 22nd and his average finish is 18th. Last year, McDowell was mid-pack. In the race, McDowell finished 20th, had a 19.9 average running position and ranked 24th for Speed. In 2024, McDowell finished 14th, earned the 17th best Driver Rating and had a 19.5 average running position. In terms of speed stats, he ranked 12th for Speed Late In A Run and then 17th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2023, McDowell had his worst recent Homestead result and finished 22nd. In the race, McDowell had a 22.9 average running position, earned the 27th best Driver Rating and ranked 31st in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Over the three races prior to that, McDowell had solid results of 16th, 6th and 15th.

Todd Gilliland
Homestead Fantasy Outlook – At Homestead, writing in Todd Gilliland for a mid-pack finish will likely prove to be the right play. That’s how he’s been on good days at 1.5-mile intermediates this year and in 4 of the last 5 races at these venues he’s finished between 16th to 22nd. For the season over all the combined races on this track type his average finish is 24.1 and he ranks 31st for Speed.
Homestead History – At Homestead in the Next Gen, Todd Gilliland has a 26.5 average finish and ranks 32nd for Speed. In terms of the results column, he’s 4 for 4 at finishing between 20th to 31st. Last year, Gilliland was simply uncompetitive and finished 30th. Additionally, Gilliland had a 29.4 average running position and ranked 31st for Speed. In 2024, Gilliland finished 20th, had a 27.3 average running position, earned the 26th best Driver Rating and ranked 28th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2023, Gilliland struggled en route to finishing a lap down in 25th. Additionally, Gilliland had a 30th place average running position and ranked 32nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Gilliland was even worse. In that race, Gilliland started in the rear of the field, finished 31st and had a 32.2 average running position.

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