Homestead-Miami NASCAR Cup Series Championship Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Ryan Blaney
Homestead Fantasy Outlook – Ryan Blaney is a super-elite performer at Homestead who’ll be tough to beat. Blaney looked like the class of the field last year, he finished runner-up in the two races prior to that, so I think it’s pretty clear he likely won’t disappoint. “Performance Wise” in 5 of the last 6 Homestead races, Blaney’s been a top five contender despite what you’ll see in the results column. In the Next Gen era, Blaney ranks 1st for Speed, 2nd for Driver Rating but has a misleading 14.3 average finish. In the Chase at 1.5-mile intermediates when everyone’s been bringing their A-game, Blaney is 3 for 3 at finishing in the top 5, has a 4.3 average finish and has a 4.0 average Speed Ranking.
Homestead History – Ryan Blaney has been a standout performer at Homestead. Last year, Blaney was the class of the field, but his engine couldn’t go the distance and he finished 36th. In the race, Blaney started 6th, won Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2 (got passed by drivers who had fresher tires), had a slow Stage #2 pit stop that dropped him from 3rd to 9th, rebounded back up to 3rd on lap 207 but then his engine blew up, marking the end of his race. In the race, Blaney led the most laps (124) and had the best Total Speed Ranking. In 2024, Blaney was stout but came up short after getting passed in the last turn, leading to his 2nd. In the race, Blaney started 20th, finished 4th in Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, led 47 laps and earned the 3rd best Driver Rating. In terms of speed stats, Blaney ranked #1 for Total Speed Rankings, #1 for Green Flag Speed and then 3rd for Speed Late In A Run. In 2023, the #12 was a rocket and he looked to be the only driver who had anything for Larson prior to the #5’s demise. In the race, Blaney started 10th, finished 3rd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 53 laps, earned the best Driver Rating, was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In 2022, Blaney was one of the best but finished an asterisk mark 17th. In the race, Blaney finished 9th in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2 but then in the final Stage during green flag pit stops, he spun on an access road leaving pit road and brought out the caution. On lap 201 just prior to that, Blaney was running in 2nd. In terms of speed analytics, Blaney ranked 3rd for Speed Late In A Run and 7th for Total Speed Rankings.

Kyle Larson
Homestead Fantasy Outlook – 2-time and defending Homestead winner, Kyle Larson will be tough to beat on championship Sunday and the road to victory lane might very well go thru him. The high-line is the fast line, and Larson’s the premiere performer at running that groove. At Homestead, I would argue the only driver who can beat Larson, is himself and he’s managed to do that in 2 of the last 3 races. “Performance Wise” in the Next Gen, you could argue Larson should really be 4 for 4 in the win column. In the Chase at 1.5-mile tracks, Larson has 1-win and a 3.0 average finish. On Sunday pending the worst-case scenario, Larson will likely have the championship locked up by the start of the last Stage, so I expect him to race hard and go all out when its closing time.
Homestead History – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Homestead and in the Next Gen, he’s won half the races, has the best Driver Rating, ranks 2nd for Speed but due to two misleading results his average finish is 12.3. Last year, Larson was impressive and when it was closing time, the #5 found another gear and Larson drove up to the lead to take home the trophy. In the race, Larson started 14th, finished 4th in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, led 19 laps, earned the best Driver Rating and of course finished 1st overall. In terms of speed stats, Larson ranked #1 for Speed Late In A Run and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. In 2024, the #5 looked stout but the race was anything but incident free for Larson and he finished a disappointing 13th. In the race, Larson started 13th, was up to 3rd on lap 10, was in 2nd on lap 47 but then that lap, Larson had a tire go down and scrubbed the wall, which brought out a caution. To close out the race, Larson looked great and was up to 2nd with 13 to go but then when he was doing a pass on Blaney for the lead, he got too aggressive and spun out. In terms of speed stats, Larson ranked 2nd for Speed Late In A Run and then 9th for Total Speed Rankings. In 2023, Larson was arguably the class of the field, but he beat himself. In the race, Larson started 5th, won Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led 96 laps, was running in 2nd on lap 211 but then on lap 213, Larson crashed into the sand barrels coming to pit road, leading to a 34th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked #1 with his speed over the segments being 1st, 1st, 4th and 3rd. In 2022, Larson smoked the field en route to victory lane. In the race, Larson won the two opening Stages, won the race, had a perfect Total Speed Ranking, had the best Green Flag Speed, was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run, earned a perfect Driver Rating, had a 1.4 average running position and led 199 laps.

Chase Briscoe
Homestead Fantasy Outlook – Chase Briscoe has been red hot at 1.5-mile intermediate tracks in the second half of 2026 and at Homestead, I think he has a great chance to be a contender. This year at 1.5’s, Briscoe has won 3 of the last 4 races and over the four his average finish is 1.8, and his average Speed Ranking is 3.3. For the season over the combined races held at 1.5’s, Briscoe ranks 3rd for Speed and his average finish minus Charlotte #1 and Texas is 3.0. At Homestead, Briscoe doesn’t have a great overall track record, but he ran well last year (4th), and that’s ultimately the most important race.
Homestead History – Overall in the Next Gen at Homestead, Briscoe has a 17.3 average finish and ranks 12th for Speed. Last year in his only race here in the #19, Briscoe was strong. In the race, Briscoe started 4th, had an 8.8 average running position and then finished 4th overall. In terms of speed stats, Briscoe ranked 5th for Speed Late In A Run and had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2024, Briscoe had a solid showing. In the race, Briscoe finished 12th, had the 12th best Total Speed Ranking and had a 13.6 average running position. In 2023, Briscoe finished 17th, had a 20.5 average running position and ranked 15th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. In 2022, Briscoe crashed on lap 160 while running 20th and that led to his 36th. In the race, I would say he typically looked about high-teens good prior to his demise and his Total Speed Ranking ranked 21st. In 2021, Briscoe had a pretty mediocre performance and finished 18th.

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