Martinsville Xfinity 500 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions / The Low Tier

Austin Dillon
Martinsville Fantasy Outlook – At Martinsville, I would view Austin Dillon is a mid-pack driver who’ll have marginal upside. In the Next Gen over the combined races, Dillon has the 18th best average finish (19.0) and then ranks 21st for both Speed and Driver Rating.
Martinsville History – At Martinsville in terms of the results column, Dillon has results all across the board that are (not in order) 3rd, 7th, 12th, 16th, 18th, 23rd, 25th, 33rd, and 34th. This spring, Dillon had an uncompetitive performance. In the race, Dillon started 30th, had a 27.4 average running position and then finished 25th. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Dillon ranked 28th. Last year, Dillon went 2 for 2 at finishing in the teens with a 17th place average finish. Last fall, Dillon finished 16th, had a 22.8 average running position, and ranked 22nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Last spring, Dillon was a high-teens driver. In the race, Dillon finished 18th, had a 17.6 average running position, and ranked 12th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. I’ll also note that late in Stage #1, Dillon was reported to have lost first gear. In fall 2024, Dillon ran well. In the race, Dillon finished 8th in Stage #1, finished 7th in Stage #2, had a 9.0 average running position, earned the 7th best Driver Rating, and then finished 7th overall. In terms of speed stats, Dillon had the 8th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 13th for Speed Late In A Run. In spring 2024, Dillon finished three laps down in 34th.

Michael McDowell
Martinsville Fantasy Outlook – I don’t think Martinsville will likely play out well for Michael McDowell. In the Next Gen, he’s 8 for 9 at finishing 17th or worse and over the combined races his average finish is 21.6, he ranks 23rd for Driver Rating and then 24th for Speed. Heading into the weekend, brace yourself for a mid-pack finish.
Martinsville History – Martinsville has historically been a pretty ugly track for Michael McDowell (27.3 career average finish). This spring, McDowell was mid-pack. In the race, McDowell finished 18th, had a 20.1 average running position and ranked 20th for Speed. Last fall, McDowell didn’t look good and finished 24th. Additionally, McDowell ranked 26th in terms of Total Speed Rankings and had a 25.6 average running position. Last spring, McDowell ran well and finished 12th. Additionally, McDowell earned the 12th best Driver Rating, had a 14th place average running position and ranked 14th in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Over his six starts prior to that in his old ride, McDowell had results of 33rd, 21st, 25th, 19th, 17th and then 25th.

Erik Jones
Martinsville Fantasy Outlook – At Martinsville, I can’t say I’m expecting a lot out of Erik Jones and a result around 20th is likely in the cards, if he can avoid trouble. That’s basically where he finished this spring (21st) and in the Next Gen over the combined races when you credit him with a 24th in spring 2025 instead of his DQ’ed 38th, his average finish is 21.4. In terms of Next Gen Speed Rankings, Jones ranks 28th.
Martinsville History – At Martinsville in 5 of the last 8 races, Erik Jones has “Crossed The Finish Line” between 19th to 24th. This spring, Jones finished 21st, had a 19.5 average running position and ranked 23rd for Speed. Last fall, Jones looked OK but finished 34th. In the race, Jones started 28th, finished Stage #1 in the mid 20’s, finished Stage #2 in 10th, was running in 14th on lap 160 but then shortly after that, Jones spun out during a pit cycle which damaged the #43 and was noted to be off pace, which led to his poor finish. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Jones ranked 25th with his speed over the segments being 25th, 29th, 16th and then 34th. Last spring, Jones “Crossed” the finish line in 24th, had a 24.3 average running position and ranked 31st in terms of Total Speed Rankings. Technically speaking, he finished 38th due to a post-race DQ. In fall 2024, Jones finished 19th and had a 22.0 average running position. In spring 2024, Jones finished 12th, had the 14th best Total Speed Ranking and had a 16.5 average running position.

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